It wasn’t supposed to end this way…again. The 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates were better than the 2013 team that beat the Reds in the Wild Card game and fell to the Cardinals in the NLDS. They were better than the 2014 Pirates team that was shut down by Madison Bumgarner and the Giants in the Wild Card game. Yet, despite winning 98 games, the Pirates finished second in the NL Central to the Cardinals for the third straight season. They hosted the NL Wild Card game for the third straight season. And for the second year in a row, the Pirates were one and done in the Postseason.
Preseason Prediction: As of right now, they’re a playoff team with the ceiling of a division champion. That all depends on whether or not the starting pitching holds up and the offense clicks with good years from players the team is wishing happy thoughts about. The ascension of Taillon and perhaps Glasnow really has the opportunity to push the team forward, giving them a boost with the current youth movement. But this team should grab one of the two Wild Card spots in the National League at the very least, and you can bet Clint Hurdle will make sure that Gerrit Cole or Liriano is getting the ball this time around should they be in the one game matchup. I like this team to hover around the 90 win mark, but the optimist in me likes them closer to 92-94 wins, which in the NL Central, will be good enough to make them division champions. (Tim Livingston, March 12th)
What Went Right: Andrew McCutchen had another MVP-caliber year, hitting .292/.401/.488 with 23 homers and 11 steals. Jung-ho Kang’s first year in America was an unquestioned success, as the Korean import hit .287/.355/.461 with 15 homers in 126 games before a hard slide by Chris Coghlan snapped his leg like a Popsicle stick. Francisco Cervelli more than adequately filled the shoes of the departed Russell Martin behind the plate, hitting .295/.370/.401. Starling Marte took another step to stardom with a 19 homer, 30 steal season. Neil Walker went yard 16 times.
On the mound, everything was fine. Gerrit Cole pitched 208 innings, struck out 202, and pitched to a 2.60 ERA. Francisco Liriano made 31 starts, struck out 205, and had a 3.38 ERA. AJ Burnett looked like the AJ Burnett of 2012-13 instead of the AJ Burnett of 2014, notching a 3.18 ERA in 26 starts. JA Happ came out of nowhere to dominate the NL, pitching to a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts. Mark Melancon and Tony Watson dominated the eighth and ninth innings, pitching a combined 152 innings with a 2.07 ERA.
MIAMI, FL – AUGUST 24: Pedro Alvarez #24 of the Pittsburgh Pirates reacts to flying out during a game against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on August 24, 2015 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: The team couldn’t catch the Cardinals thanks to a 17-21 record against the putrid Reds and Brewers. That bumped the team into the Wild Card game (again) where Arrieta did his best Madison Bumgarner impression.
During the regular season, not much actually went wrong. Pedro Alvarez was just as bad defensively at first base as he was at third, but *did* increase his homer output by 50%. Josh Harrison came back to earth and missed time over the course of the season, but still hit an adequate .287/.327/.390. Kang’s broken leg ended what was quite a promising rookie season. Aramis Ramirez’s Pittsburgh farewell tour didn’t end too well, as he hit just .245/.299/.413 after coming over from Milwaukee. The team also didn’t get much offensively from their bench, as Sean Rodriguez, Jose Tabata, and Corey Hart were all non-factors.
Not much really went wrong with the pitching staff. Vance Worley had a 4.02 ERA for the season, but he only stuck in the rotation for eight starts before being banished to the bullpen and later, the minors. Charlie Morton had a 4.81 ERA over 23 starts, and was unquestionably the weak link in an otherwise strong Pirates rotation. Jeff Locke also struggled at times, pitching to a 4.49 ERA, but making 30 starts over the course of the year.
PITTSBURGH, PA – OCTOBER 03: A.J. Burnett #34 of the Pittsburgh Pirates gestures after being pulled from the game in the 7th inning in his final career regular season game against the Cincinnati Reds during the game at PNC Park on October 3, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: With all due respect to Francisco Cervelli and Jung-ho Kang, AJ Burnett looked dead and buried last season in Philadelphia. Yeah, he made 34 starts and threw 213 2/3 innings, but he looked DONE. Burnett had a 4.59 ERA for the season. He struck out 190, and walked a whopping 96. Plus, Burnett was turning 38 in January – no one really expected him to shine in his return to Pittsburgh.
Of course, that’s what he did. In his return to the Steel City, Burnett looked like the pitcher that led the Pirates to the Postseason in 2012 and 2013. His strikeout rate slightly jumped, moving from 20.3% to 20.5%. He cut his walk rate from 10.3% to just 7.0%, the second-lowest rate of his career. He allowed 11 homers, compared to 20 the year before. And his ERA? Well, that fell by more than a run to 3.18, which ended up being the lowest ERA of Burnett’s 17 season career. You can’t blame him for anything that went wrong in Pittsburgh this season.
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 30: Charlie Morton #50 and Francisco Cervelli #29 of the Pittsburgh Pirates talk during a replay review in the first inning against the St Louis Cardinals during the game at PNC Park on September 30, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: Probably Charlie Morton by default. He made just 23 starts and pitched 129 innings. His strikeout rate fell to 17.1%, his lowest mark since 2012. His walk rate slightly dropped to 7.3%. Morton still got a ton of grounders, keeping 57.3% of batted balls on the ground, but his ERA climbed to 4.81 as Morton got no luck on balls in play and no luck with regards to his strand rate. He’ll be making the same $8 million in 2016 that he made in 2015, but his future in Pittsburgh is cloudy once next year ends.
ST. LOUIS, MO – AUGUST 12: Neil Walker #18 of the Pittsburgh Pirates atompts to throw a runner out against the St. Louis Cardinals in the third inning at Busch Stadium on August 12, 2015 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
The Future: The Pirates have some key free agents, but most of them are bench and bullpen pieces – Joakim Soria, Happ, Joe Blanton, Antonio Bastardo, Hart, Sean Rodriguez, and the retiring duo of Ramirez and Burnett. Pittsburgh will also have a decent bit of payroll to play with, but they’ve got tough decisions to make in regard to Walker, Alvarez, Cervelli, and Melancon, who are all eligible for their final year of arbitration and are in line for hefty raises. The Pirates won’t be going away next year, but given the constant strength of the Cardinals and the youth of the Cubs, they could end up taking a step back in the NL Central.
