Our first team has been eliminated from the 2015 playoff race – Philadelphia Phillies, c’mon down! You’re the first subject of this year’s TOC post-mortem series!
Preseason Prediction: I’m weary on Lee’s elbow, Amaro’s ability to get rid of Howard for good and Hamels getting the return Amaro wants right now. The last one could change come June, but not trading Hamels this offseason hurt the Phillies. I understand the want for the best package possible, but if he doesn’t do well this year, his peak trade value might have come and gone. This team will be flirting with 100 losses with a 95-loss season looking like a sure thing. The team’s steady decline will culminate in rock bottom at the Major League level this season. (Tim Livingston, February 23rd)
What Went Right: /crickets/
OK, that’s not fair. Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera excelled as the team’s every day center fielder despite not playing a game above AA, hitting .300/.339/.431 with eight homers and 14 steals. Freddy Galvis took over from Jimmy Rollins as the every day shortstop and hit an acceptable .268/.307/.354. Cesar Hernandez also took over as the every day second baseman, and stole 19 bases to go along with a .270/.340/.347 line. Maikel Franco solidified himself as the team’s third baseman of the future, hitting .277/.340/.490 with 13 homers in 77 games before breaking his wrist in August. The immortal Jeff Francoeur also became a Philly cult hero, homering 12 times in just 294 plate appearances. Rookies Aaron Altherr and Darnell Sweeney have played well near the end of the year, and could be potential building blocks in the future.
On the mound, it wasn’t all terrible for the Phillies. 2014 first-round pick Aaron Nola has pitched to a 3.56 ERA in 60 2/3 innings. Ken Giles took over as closer following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon, and notched 12 saves, 75 strikeouts, and a 1.48 ERA in 60 2/3 innings. In fact, the team’s bullpen as a whole wasn’t all that bad, with Jeanmar Gomez, Elvis Araujo, and Luis Garcia all admirably holding their own in the majors.
But the most important things that went right for the Phillies this season? They managed to trade several veterans and receive plenty of solid prospects in return. Papelbon, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, and Ben Revere were all dealt over the summer, and all of the trades were largely applauded by both Phillies fans and the national media. The rebuild is now truly in motion in Philadelphia.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 01: Ryan Howard #6 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a single in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on August 1, 2015 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz were both awful this year, and neither was traded over the summer. Potential young building blocks Cody Asche, Domonic Brown, and Darin Ruf all struggled and don’t look like every day players after showing promise earlier in their careers. Much of the pitching staff was also a disaster – Chad Billingsley, David Buchanan, Kevin Correia, Severino Gonzalez, Aaron Harang, Sean O’Sullivan, and Jerome Williams all made at least five starts this season, and none had an ERA under 5.00.
In addition to the parade of bad starting pitchers, the Phillies cycled through some truly awful relievers this season, including Justin De Fratus, Jake Diekman (traded to Texas along with Hamels), Adam Loewen, Dustin McGowan, and the homer-prone Hector Neris. Oh, and Cliff Lee made $25 million without throwing a pitch this season.
Also, attendance at Citizens Bank Park fell off a cliff. The Phils are averaging just 24,420 fans through 67 games, a drop of 5,500 since 2014 and nearly 13,000 since 2013. This week’s series with the Braves averaged just over 15,000 fans per game – that’s not good.
MILWAUKEE, WI – AUGUST 15: Odubel Herrera #37 of the Philadelphia Phillies steps up to the plate during the first inning of their game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Field on August 15, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Brewers defeated the Phillies 4-2. (Photo by John Konstantaras/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: Odubel Herrera, by far. This was a 23-year old Rule 5 pick that had never played the outfield in his life. Not only has he largely been a solid defender in center (+5 DRS, 4.3 UZR in 915 1/3 innings), but his bat has also been an asset. His eight homers are a career high at any level.
In the second half, he’s cut his strikeout rate and more than doubled his walk rate, leading to a stellar .349/.403/.482 line after the All-Star Break. The Phillies screwed up a couple of years ago when they took Ender Inciarte from the Diamondbacks in the Rule 5 draft, and returned him just before the season started so they could give a roster spot to Ezequiel Carrera. They didn’t make that mistake with Herrera, and it’s already paying dividends.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 6: Andre Ethier #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers slides safely into home plate as Carlos Ruiz #51 of the Philadelphia Phillies attempts to tag him out in the first inning during a game at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, 2015 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: There are a number of players that can really go here, but I think I’m going to go ahead and give the nod to Carlos Ruiz. A year ago, Ruiz played in 110 games and hit .252/.347/.370 with six homers. This year, Ruiz has played in just 78 games, losing his starting job to Cameron Rupp, and has homered twice while only hitting .218/.299/.298. Had he even been adequate at the plate, Ruiz likely would have been dealt at the deadline, given the lack of acceptable catchers on the market.
However, because of his struggles, Ruiz stayed put, and his ultimate future is still a question. The remaining $9 million owed to Ruiz for 2016 and a buyout in 2017 isn’t exactly an oppressive amount, but Ruiz might be completely done as a player – that’s a lot of money to invest in a sunk cost.
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 12: Maikel Franco #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies watches from the dugout during the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 12, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The Future: For the first time in a few years, we can confidently say that the Phillies…are on the right track. Almost all of their future salary commitments are in the form of sunk costs – Cliff Lee’s buyout, Ryan Howard’s 2016 salary and buyout, and Matt Harrison’s contract. The team has plenty of payroll to play with if they want to splash on a free agent or two (or sign some of their young core players to long-term extensions), and their much-maligned farm system has been rebuilt to the point where it’s actually in the top half (if not top third or better) of baseball.
2016 will likely be another rough year for the Phillies and their fans, but they’re in a much better place now than they were a year or two ago.
