The Brewers showed manager Ron Roenicke the door after a disappointing, MLB-worst 7-18 start that many blamed on poor luck. After replacing him with Craig Counsell, they played much more respectably, going 55-63 following Roenicke’s dismissal, right in the middle of the National League pack. So, could the Brewers end up holding their heads strong once this season is over?
Preseason Prediction: Here’s the thing with Ryan Braun — even if the thumb holds, the Brewers need to brace themselves for the chance that his days as an elite player are still over. He’ll be 31 this year and lost two peak-performance years due to the thumb injury and suspension. Oh, and his 5-year, $100 million extension doesn’t even start until *next* year. If the thumb flares up again this year and is something he’ll just have to deal with the rest of his career, that contract becomes Ryan Howard-level bad for a team that can’t afford any bad contracts.
A still-hobbled Braun mixed with another injury or two would drop the Brewers from contention, possibly fighting to stay out of the cellar this year without much hope of things getting better anytime soon. (Jaymes Langrehr, March 11th)
What Went Right: Ryan Braun was reanimated, and played quite well, hitting .290/.358/.509 with 25 homers and 23 steals – *and* playing in 135 of the Brewers’ 143 games (to this point at least). Adam Lind also delivered in spades at first base, launching 19 homers to go along with a .287/.372/.482 line. Even though he wasn’t great defensively, Khris Davis homered 20 times in just 102 games in left field. Gerardo Parra also played well in the outfield, hitting .328/.369/.517 in 100 games before being dealt to Baltimore.
Speaking of trades, the Brewers didn’t stand pat at the trade deadline – they traded Parra, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, Neal Cotts, and Aramis Ramirez, picking up a solid crop of players in return. Domingo Santana, one of the prospects received from the Astros in the Gomez/Fiers trade, has homered five times while hitting .277/.395/.569 in 20 major league games this year.
On the mound, the Brewers also got solid production from a variety of players. Fiers had a 3.89 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 118 innings before his trade to Houston. Taylor Jungmann pitched to a 3.05 ERA in 18 starts and looks like a future rotation stalwart. Jimmy Nelson is in the same boat as Jungmann, sticking in the rotation all year and notching a 3.95 ERA in 175 1/3 innings. In the bullpen, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress were excellent, while Michael Blazek was solid and Francisco Rodriguez was his usual frustrating, erratic, largely effective self in the ninth inning. Tyler Thornburg and Corey Knebel also had solid strikeout and walk numbers, but were way too homer prone.
MILWAUKEE, WI – AUGUST 05: Jonathan Lucroy #20 of the Milwaukee Brewers hits a two run homer in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Miller Park on August 05, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Jonathan Lucroy
What Went Wrong: First and foremost – Jonathan Lucroy played in only 94 games following an MVP-caliber 2014, and hit just .259/.322/.390. His struggles were probably the death blow to any hopes of contending that Milwaukee had this season. Gomez and Ramirez also struggled before being dealt, while Jean Segura continued to be a complete non-factor at shortstop, hitting only .272/.297/.341. At this point, he’s a poor man’s Elvis Andrus, which isn’t exactly an inspiring comparison. The team also got nothing from second base, where Scooter Gennett reinforced the belief that he can’t hit lefties and the duo of Elian Herrera and Hector Gomez didn’t inspire confidence.
On the mound, Wily Peralta’s performance dipped, as his ERA rose to 4.14 over just 18 starts following back to back solid, healthy seasons. Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse were both complete disasters, though they were both healthy – Garza had a 5.63 ERA and was shut down for the year last week, while Lohse’s ERA currently sits at 6.01 after he was moved to the bullpen in August. Seasons like those from your projected top three starting pitchers simply can’t happen if a team wants to contend.
MILWAUKEE, WI – MAY 13: Ryan Braun #8 of the Milwaukee Brewers hits a single in the seventh inning of the interleague game against the Chicago White Sox at Miller Park on May 13, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Ryan Braun
Most Surprising Player: How about Ryan Braun? He’s obviously a talented player – I mean, he won the NL MVP in 2011 and was the runner-up in 2012. But in 2013, he played in only 61 games following a PED suspension and injuries, and last season, he hit just .266/.324/.453 with 19 homers and 11 steals in 135 games. Was he even that same player anymore, especially going into his age 31 season? Well, Braun was healthy this year, and the answer was revealed: yes, he’s still a damn good player, even if he’s not an MVP-type anymore. Braun’s 23 steals are the third-highest total of his career, and while his 25 homers are still below his usual 30+ output from 2007-12 (minus 2010), it’s still a solid number in this day and age. While Braun would likely be better off with an AL club where he can DH once or twice a week, Milwaukee can make do with him in right on an every day basis.
The bad part about this? Braun’s five-year, $105 million extension doesn’t start until 2016. Eep.
PHOENIX, AZ – JULY 26: Matt Garza #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers bounces the rosin bag off of the back of his pitching hand during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on July 26, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: I think Matt Garza is the choice here, if only because he’s still under contract for two more years and this is not a good way to earn your money. In 2015, Garza’s strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate rose, he allowed 11 more homers, and his ERA spiked by a whopping two runs. Furthermore. When Garza was asked to move to the bullpen by Brewers management, he threw a temper tantrum like a child despite an 11.50 ERA in his last four starts. Yes, Garza has had his good stretches (in five starts after the All-Star Break, he had a 2.56 ERA), but the bad stretches have severely outweighed them.
MILWAUKEE, WI – AUGUST 06: Khris Davis #18 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates with Ryan Braun #8 and Adam Lind after hitting a three run homer in the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Miller Park on August 06, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)
The Future: I’m not necessarily going to say the future in Milwaukee is “bright” – after all, they play in the same division as the Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates, who are lighting the baseball world on fire this year. But Milwaukee *is* moving in the right direction – Lohse is a free agent, Lind and Rodriguez are still cheap and could be trade bait, and Garza seems destined to be shot out of a cannon into the sun. Building around a core of Lucroy, Braun, Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, and maybe Davis and Santana is the best move going forward, and when you throw in the presence of untested prospects like Zach Davies, Josh Haders, and Brett Phillips, Milwaukee could start making some noise next year…or their holes could still be too vast, and the club could be fighting the Reds for fourth place once again.
