Year one of the Andrew Friedman era in Los Angeles didn’t go as planned. The Dodgers didn’t dominate the National League as expected, despite holding at least a share of the NL West lead since the tenth game of the season for all but one day. They didn’t blow the rest of the division away, however – their lead was never larger than 8.5 games. There were plenty of question marks surrounding this team despite their payroll creeping above $300 million. Los Angeles was bounced in the NLDS for the second straight year, falling in five games to the Mets, and the future of several key figures remains up in the air.
Preseason Prediction: They are easy favorites for the National League West championship and are right below the Nationals on in the NL hierarchy. This is an easy 90-95 win projection, and even as a fervent Giants fan, Clayton Kershaw is someone I can’t help but admire. Also, Yasiel Puig batflips are the best. They’re gonna be dominant. They’re gonna be tough to beat. And for the team’s case, they’re hoping the third time is the charm. (Tim Livingston, March 26th)
What Went Right: Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke were a firebreathing dynamo at the top of the Dodgers’ rotation, combining to throw 455 1/3 innings, strike out 501, walk just 82, and pitch to a 1.90 ERA. Both will be on every Cy Young ballot this fall. Brett Anderson also stayed healthy and enjoyed his best season in years, throwing 180 1/3 innings over 31 starts and pitching to a 3.69 ERA. Kenley Jansen was also his usual dominant late game self, saving 36 games in 52 1/3 innings while punching out 80. The Dodgers also got solid contributions in their rotation from Mike Bolsinger (3.62 ERA), and Pedro Baez, Juan Nicasio, Yimi Garcia, Chris Hatcher, and JP Howell.
Justin Turner came out of nowhere to hit 16 homers and slash .294/.370/.491 in 126 games. Adrian Gonzalez had another strong year, homering 28 times with a .275/.350/.480 line for the season. Andre Ethier looked like the Ethier of old, earning 445 plate appearances while slashing .294/.366/.486 with 14 homers. Joc Pederson homered 26 times and Yasmani Grandal launched 16 bombs, but both struggled in the second half. Rookie shortstop Corey Seager got a 27 game trial in the majors, and shined with a .337/.425/.561 line.
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 28: Chase Utley #26 and Jimmy Rollins #11 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate after the game against the Chicago Cubs at Dodger Stadium on August 28, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers won 4-1. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Hyun-Jin Ryu didn’t throw an inning after shoulder surgery. Brandon McCarthy had a 5.87 ERA in three starts before blowing his elbow out. The team brought over Alex Wood, Luis Avilan, and Jim Johnson from the Braves at the trade deadline to bolster their pitching staff, and all were complete disasters. The team’s middle relief wasn’t good at all – Joel Peralta, Sergio Santos, and Adam Liberatore all struggled, in addition to Avilan and Johnson. The back-end of the rotation was also an issue, with Wood, Carlos Frias, Mat Latos, Brandon Beachy, Joe Wieland, and Scott Baker all getting multiple starts and struggling.
Yasiel Puig played in just 79 games, and hit a disappointing .255/.322/.436 with 11 homers and three steals. Jimmy Rollins hit 13 homers and stole 12 bases, but his overall .224/.285/.358 line was not what the Dodgers expected. Rollins’ former Phillies teammate Chase Utley came over in August, and hit just .202/.291/.363 with three homers. Alex Guerrero homered 11 times, but ten of those came in his first 104 plate appearances. In his final 126 plate appearances of the year, Guerrero hit .182/.206/.231 with one homer. Carl Crawford played in just 69 games, and his .265/.304/.403 line wasn’t all that nice. Alberto Callaspo stunk in 60 games after being acquired from the Braves for Juan Uribe, who stunk in 29 games.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – OCTOBER 01: Andre Ethier #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a fielders choice that scored Howie Kendrick #47 in the third inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on October 1, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: For as much as I want to give Justin Turner love, he was pretty good last year too. Andre Ethier? Well, he wasn’t good, and it was expected that he had worn out his welcome in Los Angeles. Naturally, he had his best offensive season since 2010. His 14 homers were his most since 2012. Yes, he still couldn’t hit lefties (which Don Mattingly realized, only allowing him 46 plate appearances against southpaws), but a .306/.383/.517 line in 397 plate appearances against right-handers is excellent. Ethier’s contract also ticked down by another year and $18 million, so maybe if the Dodgers want to move him this winter, they’ll actually be able to get more than a cursory glance or two.
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 10: Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers watches from the dugout in the third inning while taking on the New York Mets in game two of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 10, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: Yasiel Puig’s production went backwards in pretty much every statistical measure. He played in just 79 games and received just 311 plate appearances, both of which are fewer than his 2013 partial season in the majors. His .181 ISO was a career low. He stole just three bases at a career-worst 50% success rate (hello, small sample size!). His 8.4% walk rate and 21.2% strikeout rate were both better than his 2013 marks, but were worse than 2014. His batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage all fell for the second straight year, and a .255/.322/.436 triple slash with a .328 wOBA and 111 wRC+ isn’t exactly all that much to write home about. (context: ex-Dodger Matt Kemp had a .325 wOBA and a 109 wRC+).
Puig will be 25 in December, and is obviously still extremely talented. He dealt with plenty of injuries this season that limited him to 50 plate appearances in April, zero in May, zero in September, and just five in October. But the Dodgers are really going to need more out of Puig next year – he’s a critical part to the team’s success in the future.
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 15: Zack Greinke #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on from the dugout after being pulled in the seventh inning against the New York Mets in game five of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
The Future: Year two of the Friedman era is going to be an interesting one. Greinke is expected to use his opt-out and test the free agent market again, meaning the Dodgers will need to pony up some more cash to retain him (or sign a replacement like David Price). Friedman is also going to need to fortify is rotation a bit better this winter – Ryu and McCarthy are still signed through 2018 (for better or worse), but neither can be counted on in 2016 because of their health issues this year. Wood will return to fill one hole, but Anderson is a free agent. Friedman will also need to determine to what to do with second and third base (bring back some combination of Utley and Howie Kendrick while also giving Turner regular playing time), somehow take care of the outfield logjam (because both Crawford and Ethier could have more value elsewhere despite their huge contracts), and improve the bullpen after another disappointing October.
The Dodgers are still ahead of the rest of the pack in the NL West, but the Giants’ even year magic is ready to strike again in 2016 and the Diamondbacks looked much-improved this year. This club simply can’t rest on their laurels and expect to dominate in 2016.
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