No team represented the rise of new blood and breakout young talent during the 2015 MLB season than the Houston Astros. (OK, the Chicago Cubs might disagree with that.) The Astros were on schedule to improve this year, but not necessarily make the jump to contender. But Houston disrupted whatever preconceived notions observers and experts had about how the AL would fall into place this season. Much like general manager Jeff Luhnow, his team had far different ideas. With emerging talent that developed into established stars and phenoms announcing their presence on the MLB landscape, the Astros decided to stop waiting and take their turn now.
Preseason Prediction: Houston could improve to 80 wins or even clear the .500 threshold, yet still finish fourth in the AL West. The top tier of the division could be that good, keeping a promising young Astros club down. A last-place finish would be disappointing — especially since the Astros have more young talent than the Rangers, though lack a proven star like Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder or Yu Darvish. But Luhnow’s plan is finally yielding some results after feeding Astros fans some terrible baseball during the past few seasons. This season should be an important step for this team, even if the division standings don’t necessarily reflect that progress. (Ian Casselberry, March 3)
What Went Right: In his second season as a full-time starter, Dallas Keuchel emerged as one of the best pitchers in the AL. His 2.48 ERA and .217 opponents batting average ranked second among the league’s starting pitchers, while his 216 strikeouts tied for fifth. And with 232 innings — only Clayton Kershaw threw more (by two-thirds of a frame) — Keuchel established himself as the ace-level workhorse that can lead a young rotation including Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers. Oh, and for what it’s worth, he was the only pitcher to notch 20 wins this year. That performance could very well earn him the AL Cy Young Award.
On the offensive side, Jose Altuve led the league with 200 hits and 38 stolen bases, while finishing third with a .313 average after winning the AL batting title last season. George Springer developed into a potential future MVP candidate, becoming a significant on-base threat (.367 OBP) with power, speed, and strong defense in right field. But the Astros debuted a future superstar at shortstop when Carlos Correa was called up in early June.
Despite appearing in 99 games, the 21-year-old led MLB shortstops with 22 home runs. His .857 OPS was tops among Astros everyday players, while his 68 RBI was the second-highest total. Correa’s defense may still need work, but his offense has already made him a standout at a position stocked with rising stars. Get used to seeing him regularly in the AL All-Star starting lineup for years to come.
ANAHEIM, CA – MAY 07: Evan Gattis #11 of the Houston Astros tosses his bat after striking out in the eighth inning during the MLB game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 7, 2015 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Though the Astros were a formidable combination of power (their 230 home runs ranked second in the AL) and speed (a league-leading 121 stolen bases), the lineup struck out far too often to be a consistent offensive threat that can wear down opposing pitching staffs. Obviously, strikeouts are a way of life in modern MLB, a far more accepted part of the game than in previous eras, especially when a team posted a +121 run differential as Houston did. But a feast-or-famine type offense that put huge numbers on the scoreboard, but could also be shut down because it couldn’t put the ball in play might have difficulty separating itself from the competition in the AL West and overall league, unless the opposition falls woefully short.
Houston’s 3.57 team ERA led the AL, but both the starting rotation and bullpen lack depth. Scott Kazmir was a decent trade deadline acquisition, but what if the Astros had been able to land the ace-level starter the front office was pursuing, such as Cole Hamels? How much of a difference would that have made in September and in the ALDS versus the Royals?
And though it seemed silly when Luhnow was chasing top-dollar closers like Andrew Miller and David Robertson, instead settling for spreading that money among less expensive free agent relievers, Houston probably could have used a more lockdown presence in the ninth inning. Luke Gregerson is probably better suited for setup duty, joining a strong corps with Will Harris and Pat Neshek. How much better might the bullpen be with an upgrade at closer, if one is available through trade or free agency?
KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 14: Luis Valbuena #18 of the Houston Astros celebrates after hitting a two-run home run in the second inning against the Kansas City Royals during game five of the American League Divison Series at Kauffman Stadium on October 14, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: Luis Valbuena was a savvy pick-up for a team with uncertainty at third base. Matt Dominguez wasn’t a good hitter and Jed Lowrie was holding down shortstop until Correa was ready. (And with his size, maybe Correa would be the future third baseman.) Valbuena was acquired with Dan Straily from the Cubs in exchange for Dexter Fowler, sporting a below-average glove at third base, but decent power to make up for that.
The power was more than decent in 2015, as Valbuena slugged 25 home runs — second-most among Astros everyday players. Sure, those homers also came with too many strikeouts (106 in 493 plate appearances), resulting in a low batting average (.224), but that didn’t stand out on a team which swung hard and launched a bunch of baseballs out of the park. And as the batting order’s only left-handed power threat, manager A.J. Hinch had no choice but to keep him in the lineup. With Correa’s emergence, there might not be a place for Valbuena on next year’s roster. But his home run totals could make him an appealing trade chip for a team looking for some pop at third base.
HOUSTON, TX – JUNE 12: Chris Carter #23 of the Houston Astros hits a home run in the fifth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on June 12, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: Hitting 24 home runs doesn’t often constitute a disappointing season, but for Chris Carter, that total was down 13 from his total last season. Carter hit .199 with a. 734 OPS. Even for a player known for a low batting average and leading the league in strikeouts two years ago, those are rather stunning numbers for a starting major league position player. As it turns out, Carter stopped being a starting player for the Astros after batting .109 in July. With a surplus of bats to play at first base and designated hitter, as well as needing a position for Valbuena following Jed Lowrie’s return from injury, there was just no place in the lineup for someone batting below .200, even if he was always a threat to crank one out of the park.
Carter forced his way back in with a strong September, batting .333 with a 1.222 OPS, four doubles and six home runs, and ended up being one of the team’s best hitters during the postseason. With three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, that makes him a cheaper, valuable part of the roster. But Carter will also likely get more expensive, so that club control and power potential may also make him an appealing trade candidate during the offseason, especially when the Astros have several players that could replace him.
HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 11: Carlos Correa #1 of the Houston Astros celebrates with George Springer #4 of the Houston Astros after the Houston Astros defeat the Kansas City Royals in game three of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 11, 2015 in Houston, Texas. The Houston Astros defeated the Kansas City Royals with a score of 4 to 2. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
The Future: The seasons to come for this team look blindingly bright. Houston was expected to improve, but finishing with a record above .500 would have been a considerable achievement. Taking a jump into contention one year ahead of schedule was a significant accomplishment, putting the division and league on notice. The Mariners took a step back, while the Angels’ immediate future seems uncertain, despite competing with the Astros for the AL’s second wild-card bid to the last day of the regular season. Going into next season, the Rangers seem like the only thing standing between Houston and a playoff spot or division title.
A top-of-the-rotation veteran starter and more reliable closer are likely at the top of Luhnow’s offseason shopping list. But there aren’t that many holes to fill on a team with established stars, emerging talent and reinforcements developing in the minors. The depth that the Astros have built in the minor league system can either bolster the current roster or be utilized to help fetch what the team needs to take that next step toward contending for an AL pennant with the Royals and Blue Jays.
