The Reds went into 2015 with dreams of competing in the AL Central and the knowledge that if they didn’t, they wouldn’t have many more shots in the future with the current roster. Instead, they were more than ten games out of the Central lead at the end of May and things never got better as they were surpassed by even the lowly Brewers and were eliminated with nearly a month to go in the season, 28.5 games out of the division lead.
Preseason Prediction: Though the Reds have enough talent to contend in the NL Central, staying with the Cardinals and Pirates doesn’t seem likely with so many questions on their pitching staff. The real battle for this team might be for third place in the division. And if the Cubs progress as many are predicting, Cincinnati may be fighting with the Brewers for fourth place. Winning 80 games seems like a stretch for this team. Under those circumstances, Johnny Cueto might become midseason trade bait, giving Jocketty an opportunity to add more prospects and look ahead to the future. (Ian Casselberry, March 10th)
What Went Right: There were actually quite a few players who had great seasons for the Reds, but the combination didn’t work out as well as it probably should have. Anthony DeSclafani and Mike Leake were solid in the rotation and while he lasted, Johnny Cueto was as good as anyone in the league. In the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman and J.J. Hoover were also as good as anyone at what they do.
At the plate, Joey Votto did enough to make every type of fan happy (although they never will be) by batting .315 with 127 walks and 27 home runs. He lead the team in all three slash categories and the Reds certainly got their money’s worth. Brandon Phillips had another solid year as did Eugenio Suarez in his first season with the Reds and of course, the Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier. Defensively, Billy Hamilton lead the way with 16.8 defensive runs saved (he did so on the bases as well, with 56 steals in 64 attempts) and overall the team was just slightly better than league average in the field.
CINCINNATI, OH – JUNE 10: Zack Cozart #2 of the Cincinnati Reds is helped off the field after suffering an injury on a play at first base in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on June 10, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: It would be nice if the Reds could just blame their failures on a tough division, but they actually held their own against the Central, going 30-34. It was against the NL West that they actually took their worst beatings, going 7-23. In addition, luck may have been a factor as they sit five games below their Pythagorean expectations, but that is far below their preseason expectations.
Outside of the two relievers mentioned, there was not much to like in the Cincinnati bullpen. Combined, Chapman and Hoover had 47 saves and holds in 54 chances, but the rest of the pen went just 34 and 45. This was largely because of a lack of chances, but a team that doesn’t score much needs to have a solid relief corps to keep the lead when the do get one.
Injuries were also a problem for Cincinnati as they lost Devin Mesoraco early on, then again after an attempted comeback. The loss of Zach Cozart didn’t hurt as much since Suarez stepped up in a huge way, but there is no question that the team would have been better with both on the roster. In the end, they scored more runs than the (barely) playoff contending Rays and allowed less than the Wild Card leading Rangers, but the combination of not quite good enough at the plate with not quite good enough on the mound lead to one of the worst records in baseball.
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 18: Eugenio Suarez #7 of the Cincinnati Reds rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Great American Ball Park on August 18, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: Eugenio Suarez came from the Tigers last off-season in the Alfredo Simon trade and there is no question who won that one (Simon, a free agent after this season, holds a 4.94 ERA in 160.1 IP). Despite playing in the Majors most of last season, Suarez didn’t make it to Cincinnati until Cozart was hurt in June, but after he did, he took off. He batted .285/.323/.460 with 11 home runs in 79 games while playing just slightly below league average defense. It certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be returning to the minor leagues any time soon. Unlike Simon, Suarez is under team control through 2020.
CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 31: Michael Lorenzen #50 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field on August 31, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: It’s hard to put too much blame on Mike Lorenzen, but few others were given the amount of playing time that Lorenzen has and still struggled. In his rookie campaign, he has posted a 5.45 ERA and just a 6.6 K/9 in 105.2 innings across 20 starts. Some of this blame should also be placed on Tony Cingrani, whose spot in the rotation Lorenzen took after Cingrani posted similar numbers in the 2014 campaign and was moved to the bullpen. He wasn’t any better there, but at least was kept to just 28 innings.
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 15: Todd Frazier #21 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates as he returns to the dugout after hitting a two run home run in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on August 15, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
The Future: This is usually the flowery happy place for teams that struggled during the season, but there isn’t much of a silver lining for Cincinnati. They got the best they could out of most of the big names returning next year and thanks to a few big contracts, they can’t really afford to go out and fix the other holes. Instead of selling completely this year and building up a run in a few years, the Reds held on to coveted closer Chapman as well as fan favorite Phillips who will be a free agent after 2017 and is probably at his peak value.
A slight positive is that Homer Bailey will be back, but he’s nowhere near what they lost in Cueto and considering the youth and ability surrounding them in the division, Cincinnati may need to get used to sitting in the cellar.
