The AL East appeared to be completely up for grabs and with significant free agent signings in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, the Red Sox seemed in excellent position to contend for a playoff spot. Between subpar production from those additions, along with a failure to build a reliable starting rotation and bullpen cost general manager Ben Cherington his job. Replaced by Dave Dombrowski, whom the Tigers inexplicably fired after the trade deadline, Boston soon undertook the process of salvaging the pieces from a lost season and retooling a roster that performed far below expectations.
Preseason Prediction: Another last place finish would be unacceptable for the Red Sox, but could it actually happen? Sure, and I don’t think you need to stretch much to envision that happening. All it takes is the rotation not living up to standards, injuries claiming the veteran hitters, and the younger hitters experiencing struggles, and the Red Sox could be a truly dreadful team. Now, I don’t think that’s a very *likely* outcome, but it’s a definite possibility. (Joe Lucia, Feb. 16)
What Went Right: Boston’s promising young outfielders developed into impact players. Mookie Betts was one of the team’s best hitters, batting .292 with an .811 OPS, 41 doubles, 15 home runs, 72 RBI and 20 stolen bases. Additionally, he provided highlight reel defense in center field on a nightly basis. Jackie Bradley Jr. has always been an elite outfield glove, but in the second half of the season (especially in August), came on as a hitter. Since the All-Star break, he’s batted .275 with a .928 OPS, 15 doubles, and nine homers. Rusney Castillo might be more of a work in progress, but had an encouraging second half with a triple-slash average of .281/.316/.416 and good defense in each corner outfield spot.
Eduardo Rodriguez may not necessarily be the ace that the rotation needs, but he was the Red Sox’s best starting pitcher in 2015. Though his innings were managed carefully later in the season, the 22-year-old has compiled a 10-6 record and 3.85 ERA in 21 starts, striking out 98 batters in 121.1 innings. Henry Owens also followed through on his promise as a prospect, posting a 3.84 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. At the very least, both left-handers should give Boston a strong middle-to-back of the starting staff next season.
In his first full season as Boston’s shortstop, Xander Bogaerts emerged as one of the best young players in MLB. His .324 batting average ranked second among AL hitters, while his 192 hits are tied for first. Bogaerts also played solid defense, saving one run more than an average player at his position, according to FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Rating. He and Dustin Pedroia give the Red Sox arguably the best middle infield in baseball for years to come.
BOSTON, MA – JULY 29: Rick Porcello #22 of the Boston Red Sox is relieved during the third inning after allowing six runs against the Chicago White Sox during the third inning at Fenway Park on July 29, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: The lack of a No. 1 starter was widely seen as the biggest weakness for the Red Sox going into the season, and the rotation lived down to those expectations. Dombrowski’s priority will be to upgrade the staff and get the ace-caliber arm that Ben Cherington either could not or would not acquire.
Rick Porcello signed a four-year, $82.5 million contract extension in early April, but pitched nothing like the top-of-the-rotation starter such a salary would imply. His 5.04 ERA was the worst of his seven-year career (though a 4.24 FIP shows he pitched slightly better than that bloated number indicates). Wade Miley didn’t make the transition to the AL very well, though his numbers resemble those from last season with Arizona. Diminished velocity has to be a concern, and favoring his curveball and changeup over a slider resulted in fewer strikeouts. Joe Kelly was awful in the first half, notching a 5.67 ERA. However, he improved significantly after the All-Star break (3.77 ERA) before being shut down with a sore shoulder.
The bullpen wasn’t much better, with a collective 4.30 ERA that was the third-worst in the AL. Koji Uehara was effective as the closer, but a fractured right wrist ended his season in early August. While he’s under contract next season (when he’ll be 41 years old) and will likely be the closer again, Boston has to figure out who can pitch behind him. Junichi Tazawa regressed badly, compiling a 4.14 ERA and allowing 10 hits per nine innings as he had difficulty locating his fastball. Ryan Cook and Matt Barnes may help out in the bullpen next season, and moving Kelly to relief was raised as a possibility. (The Red Sox want him to remain a starter, but may not have a better option.)
Given Dombrowski’s difficulty with building a bullpen in Detroit, tasking him with improving the Red Sox relief corps is a valid concern. However, he does have much more to work with, in terms of young talent to trade, which could make up for the fact that the free agent market for relievers doesn’t look very strong this winter.
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 21: Jackie Bradley Jr. #25 of the Boston Red Sox runs to first base in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on September 21, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Red Sox won the game 8-7. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: While Brock Holt was arguably Boston’s most valuable player this season — especially because of his defensive versatility that allowed him to play significant time at second base, third base and the outfield — his offensive production was essentially the same as last season. The fact that he was the Red Sox’s lone All-Star indicates how disappointing the team was this year.
But Bradley’s offense was a big question mark coming into the season, and with the surplus of outfielders on the roster, he looked like a potential trade candidate for a team in need of a spectacular defensive center fielder. However, poor performance and injuries gave Bradley another chance to stick in Boston’s outfield and the 25-year-old didn’t squander the opportunity. Bradley’s performance in college and the minors indicated he could hit, but success eluded him at the major league level. Hitting under .200 in each of his first two major league seasons, he worked in the offseason to shorten his swing and be quicker to the ball. That approach paid off with a tremendous August and a good second half, putting Bradley back in Boston’s future plans.
Most Disappointing Player: Signing Ramirez was a curious move since the Red Sox already had a shortstop in Bogaerts and Sandoval was inked to play third base. But Cherington wanted Ramirez’s bat in his lineup so badly that the decision was made to put him in left field, a position he’d never played in professional baseball. Add the difficulty of Fenway Park’s left field with the Green Monster and you had a potential disaster waiting to happen. The hope was that Ramirez was athletic enough — and left field was short enough in Boston — that the experiment would somehow work out.
It didn’t. Ramirez was a disaster in the field, charged with -19 Defensive Runs Saved and costing Boston 17 more runs than an average left fielder. He showed poor instincts in taking proper routes and deciding when to charge to the ball. Injuring his shoulder by running into the wall along the foul line probably didn’t help, but a tentative approach to defense allowed many balls to drop in for hits that either should have been caught or cut off to prevent runners from taking extra bases.
Ramirez may have taken anxiety over his defense to the plate, where he posted a .249/.291/.426 slash average, the worst of his career. He still showed some power, slugging 19 home runs, but not the monster numbers expected from hitting in Fenway Park. Nor were those numbers impactful enough to compensate for his putrid defense. The Red Sox hope moving Ramirez to first base will negate his defensive woes and allow him to focus on hitting better. But unless he’s capable of another 30-homer season with a .900-plus OPS, this may always be a disappointing signing.
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 5: Dave Dombrowski the President of Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox watches batting practice before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Fenway Park on September 5, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images)
The Future: Dombrowski’s success with the Tigers (failure to win a World Series aside) is reason for encouragement. For all of Cherington’s faults, he did build a farm system unlike anything Dombrowski ever had to work with in Detroit. The difference is that Dombrowski, never afraid to trade a top prospect, will likely use those resources (along with the typically generous payroll ownership provides) to acquire impact players that the previous regime could not.
A loaded free agent market for starting pitching should ensure that Boston doesn’t go into next season lacking a No. 1 starter again. But the Red Sox could also use depth and youth to build a stronger overall rotation. However, the trade pieces that are available will probably have to be used to rebuild the bullpen as few impact relievers will be available this winter. (That might be a good thing, since Dombrowski tended to overspend —albeit out of necessity — on free agent relievers.)
The Red Sox have an exciting young core of position players and starting pitching, with more on tap in the minors. With the right veteran pieces added to fill holes and a good coaching staff already in place, there’s no reason to think that this team shouldn’t compete for a playoff spot and division title next year, with the competition in position to decline.
