The 2015 Atlanta Braves were supposed to be a more fun team, focusing less on strikeouts and more on making contact at the plate. And while the team did strike out much less and did make more contact than in 2014, the offense was just as bad. The team’s pitching staff was also a trainwreck, pushing the Braves into a position they hadn’t been familiar with for 25 years – the battle for the #1 overall pick.
Preseason Prediction: I think this team’s ceiling in 2015 is .500, as unlikely as that finish may be for them. The Braves could climb as high as second in the NL East, but that finish would require both the Marlins and Mets to fail…neither of which is exactly off the table. This season isn’t about a win/loss record for Atlanta, it’s about the progression of their young talent. If the Braves lose 88 games, I really don’t think anyone will care as long as players like Simmons, Bethancourt, Miller, Minor, Wood, Teheran, Foltynewicz, and maybe even Peraza continue to blossom as future major league building blocks. (Joe Lucia, February 25th)
What Went Right: Not much! Almost every “good” thing about the 2015 Braves has a caveat attached to it. Freddie Freeman hit .283/.372/.481 with 16 homers…but struggled with injuries and played in just 98 games. Andrelton Simmons remained a plus defender at short….but had another pitiful year at the plate. Nick Markakis stayed healthy and hit .296/.371/.374…but has homered just twice. Non-roster invitee Kelly Johnson shined in the first half before getting dealt (along with May acquisition Juan Uribe) to the Mets before the trade deadline. AJ Pierzynski had a resurgent year at the dish, hitting .295/.334/.416 and getting a bulk of the playing time behind the plate when rookie Christian Bethancourt struggled. August acquisition Nick Swisher looked healthy and solid at the plate, hitting .260/.392/.429 with three homers in 29 games. Cameron Maybin, considered a throw-in to the Craig Kimbrel trade in April, hit .268/.333/.382 with ten homers and 21 steals.
On the mound, there’s not much to report. Shelby Miller made 29 starts and pitched to a 2.86 ERA…but hasn’t won a game since May, a hilarious (and ultimately meaningless) streak of ineptitude from the Braves offense and bullpen. Alex Wood pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts, but was flipped at the deadline. Jason Grilli looked great in the ninth inning, saving 24 games in 36 appearances while pitching to a 2.94 ERA…but his season ended with a torn Achilles in July. Arodys Vizcaino replaced him as closer, and despite saving just four games in 24 appearances, he’s allowed just two runs on the season.
Oh, and the Braves managed to unload the contracts of Melvin Upton Jr and Chris Johnson. Praise it.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 09: Christian Bethancourt #27 of the Atlanta Braves slaps hands with Jace Peterson #8 after both scored on a Michael Bourn triple in the eighth inning of the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 9, 2015 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Braves won 8-1. (Photo by Brian Garfinkel/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Freeman missed a solid chunk of time. Rookie catcher Bethancourt struggled overall, hitting just .193/.216/.281 in 41 games. Markakis showed no power whatsoever. Rookie second baseman Jace Peterson started out well, but crashed back to earth hard, and his .239/.313/.337 triple slash for the season isn’t exactly inspiring. Michael Bourn has hit .176/.262/.216 in 26 games since coming over from the Indians with Swisher. Before getting banished to Cleveland, Chris Johnson played in just 56 games and hit .235/.272/.320. Eric Young Jr and Alberto Callaspo, both signed to low-risk deals before the season, flopped as starters and were excised from the team before the summer.
Oh, but it gets worse! Mike Minor didn’t throw an inning because of shoulder surgery. Rotation building block Julio Teheran struggled, pitching to a 4.38 ERA in 29 starts. The bullpen was a complete and utter disaster outside of Grilli, Vizcaino, and Jim Johnson (traded to the Dodgers in July). The Trevor Cahill experiment was a disaster (7.52 ERA in 26 1/3 innings). Mike Foltynewicz was extremely homer prone in 86 2/3 innings, allowing 17 dingers and pitching to a 5.71 ERA. Manny Banuelos made just seven appearances in the majors and had a 5.13 ERA as the team handled him with kid gloves. Matt Wisler, the big prize in the Kimbrel trade, has a 5.81 ERA in 74 1/3 innings.
In short, the Braves couldn’t hit and they couldn’t pitch. The team’s .296 wOBA and 84 wRC+ rank last in baseball. Their 4.4 pitching fWAR ranks last in baseball, and their 4.57 ERA is 27th. Good job, good effort?
ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 16: Cameron Maybin #25 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates a walk off home run in the tenth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Turner Field on August 16, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: I think I’m going to give the nod to Cameron Maybin. Maybin showed flashes of brilliance in his career, but always struggled with both injuries and inconsistency. This season, Maybin has already surpassed his total games from both the 2013 and 2014 seasons, and his overall .268/.333/.382 line trumps his career line of .250/.313/.368,while his ten homers are also a career-high. When included in the Kimbrel trade, Maybin was just there to offset some salaries. Carlos Quentin was included for the same reason, and he didn’t even suit up for the Braves before they released him. Maybin not only took the field for the Braves, but he played himself into a position where Atlanta didn’t really want to trade him in July because of his relatively affordable contract and solid production.
ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 28: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves reacts in the dugout after being pulled following a solo homer by Denard Span #2 of the Washington Nationals in the sixth inning at Turner Field on April 28, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: There are so many to choose from. But even though there’s some bad luck involved, I have to go with Julio Teheran. Teheran followed up a 3.20 ERA in 185 2/3 innings in 2013 with a 2.89 ERA in 221 innings a year ago, and looked like he could be close to making the leap into the top tier of National League starters. It didn’t quite work out that way – his strikeout rate dropped to a career-worst 20.0%, while his walk rate rose to a career-high 8.6%. Teheran also gave up 25 homers (despite a career-best 40.1% ground ball rate), allowed more hard contact than in either of his two full years in the majors, and saw hitters hit line drives in nearly a quarter of their plate appearances against him. There weren’t many encouraging notes from Teheran’s season, and there are even rumors floating that the Braves could look to move him (which would be selling low) this offseason.
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 1: Hector Olivera #28 of the Atlanta Braves waits on the on-deck circle before his initial MLB at-bat during the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Turner Field on September 1, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
The Future: 2016 is likely going to be another rough year for the Braves. They don’t have many top-tier offensive prospects in the upper minors, meaning that guys like Peterson and Bethancourt will have to play themselves out of a job rather than being replaced. 30-year old Cuban Hector Olivera, the main return in the summer’s Wood/Johnson trade with the Dodgers, will be playing every day at third base. The Braves won’t be losing anyone to free agency this year aside from Pierzynski and reliever Ross Detwiler, so the team that has struggled this year will likely remain largely intact. If Atlanta’s young pitching doesn’t take another step forward, and John Hart and company don’t attempt to fix the bullpen, Braves fans could be in for another rough summer.
