After a third consecutive early postseason loss, general manager Billy Beane traded Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss and Derek Norris during the offseason. Along with letting Jon Lester go via free agency, the Oakland Athletics were in rebuilding mode and figured to be in line for a rough season. By that standard, the team played down to expectations, finishing last in the AL West and becoming the first team in the league to be officially eliminated from playoff consideration. But is there enough in place for future optimism?
Preseason Prediction: The A’s aren’t nearly as bad as we all feared they could be when Billy Beane started selling off every possible piece. This is still a pretty formidable club. In playing the matchups and getting effective pitching, with an on-time return from Jarrod Parker and continued effectiveness out of the bullpen, the A’s will likely be in the mix for one of the American League wild card spots. (Randy Holt, March 5)
What Went Right: Sonny Gray built upon a strong 2014 season to become one of the best starting pitchers in the AL. With two or three starts remaining, his 2.72 ERA ranks third among AL starters, while his two shutouts are tied for first and three complete games are tied for second in the league. Opposing batters are hitting .217 against him, the third-best mark among his peers. Best of all, Gray is under club control for four more seasons with all three of his arbitration years still to come. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll continue to pitch for the A’s. But as an ace or blockbuster trade chip, Gray is a key piece for Beane as he continues to rework his roster.
Stephen Vogt emerged as a breakout hitter, establishing himself as Oakland’s catcher after two seasons as a promising reserve who didn’t quite have a position. With two weeks remaining in the regular season, he leads A’s everyday hitters with a .349 on-base percentage and .467 slugging mark, and ranks second with 18 home runs. Only two other AL catchers compiled a higher WAR than Vogt’s 2.7. He also had a decent year defensively, throwing out 33 percent (20-of-61) opposing basestealers while allowing eight passed balls and 26 wild pitches. Like Gray, the A’s still have Vogt under control for four more seasons.
HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 20: Brett Lawrie #15 of the Oakland Athletics attempts to throw out Jed Lowrie #8 of the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on September 20, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Based solely on a one-year view, the Josh Donaldson trade looks like a disaster for the A’s. Beane gave up a player with four more years of club control and MVP-caliber production at a premium position, and subsequently watched him become the likely AL MVP with a .948 OPS, 39 doubles, 39 home runs and 120 RBI, as of this writing.
Perhaps it’s unfair to compare Brett Lawrie to Donaldson, but since he was the centerpiece of Oakland’s return in that deal, it’s a natural juxtaposition. Lawrie is four years younger and had a solid, though not superstar season, batting .270 with 28 doubles, 16 homers and 58 RBI. He also had a bad year fielding, according to advanced metrics. According to FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Rating, he cost the A’s 10 runs more than the average defensive third baseman, while notching -3 Defensive Runs Saved.
Kendall Graveman was another player included in the trade. In his first full MLB season, he compiled a 6-9 record and 4.05 ERA in 21 starts before suffering an oblique strain that likely ended his year. Sean Nolin compiled a 2.66 ERA in Triple-A and pitched well in three starts for Oakland, posting a 3.24 ERA. Shortstop Franklin Barreto, 19, had a good year at advanced Class A with an .833 OPS, 22 doubles, 13 homers and 47 RBI.
The bullpen was also a huge problem for the A’s after being a strength the past two seasons. Among AL clubs, only the Tigers had a worse ERA from their relievers than Oakland’s 4.55 mark and it’s .736 opponents’ OPS was one of the worst in the league. Tyler Clippard pitched well enough to become a nice trade piece, going to the Mets at the deadline. But Sean Doolittle was never a factor this season with assorted shoulder injuries, while Fernando Abad and Dan Otero pitched nowhere near as well as they did last year. (Could either of them lose his job to Ryan Dull, who’s been great during his September call-up?)
Most Surprising Player: Billy Burns had something of a breakout season, hitting .300 and ranking third in the AL with 26 stolen bases. But considering Mark Canha was a Rule 5 draft pick-up by the Rockies, who was then traded to the A’s, his performance has to be the biggest surprise for this team. Canha had to spend the entire year on the Oakland major league roster or be offered back to the Marlins (who left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft), but the 26-year-old performed well enough to keep his spot. With a .313 on-base percentage and .467 slugging mark to go with 19 doubles and 15 homers, Canha was one of Oakland’s most productive hitters this season.
HOUSTON, TX – MAY 18: Billy Butler #16 of the Oakland Athletics doubles in the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on May 18, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Most Disappointing Player: Beane’s other big offseason move didn’t work out so well either. Signing Billy Butler to a three-year, $30 million contract following the worst year of his career, along with a lackluster postseason, was a head-scratcher, to say the least. Butler was strictly a DH, and didn’t appear to hit that well anymore. But the move could perhaps be justified because of how well Butler still hit left-handed pitching, batting .321 with an .847 OPS last season.
Yet Butler has been a disappointment by any measure, compiling a .252/.324/.388 triple slash average with 26 doubles, 13 home runs and 62 RBI. Even worse, he couldn’t even provide a platoon advantage, hitting .191 with a .682 OPS against lefties. Butler will turn 30 next season, and the A’s have to hope he’s still young enough to turn himself around for the remaining two years of his misguided contract.
The Future: While the 2015 results weren’t encouraging, Beane overhauled his roster with younger, inexpensive talent under club control for multiple years. Shortstop Marcus Semien, part of the haul received from the White Sox for Jeff Samardzija, looks to be a future building block along with Gray, Lawrie, Graveman, Chris Bassitt and perhaps even Canha.
But another offseason selloff looks possible. Josh Reddick rebounded from a lackluster past two seasons with 19 home runs and a .793 OPS. Beane may decide to see what he can get for the right fielder, who has one season of arbitration eligibility remaining. Vogt will be 31 next season, and the A’s might try to sell high on him following his career year, along with four remaining years of club control. If Doolittle proves healthy, he and starter Jesse Hahn could be trade chips as well.
The pieces for a good starting rotation are in place, which could allow the A’s to make a push in the AL West next year and overtake the Mariners and Angels. But with the emergence of the Astros and rebound by the Rangers, Oakland will have to hope it can compete for the AL’s second wild-card spot. Beane has major work to do with improving the bullpen and finding more offense for the left side of the infield and DH before that can be a realistic goal, however.
