Following a loss to the Orioles in last year’s ALDS and the departure of Max Scherzer via free agency, the Detroit Tigers had the look of a team whose championship window had closed. General manager Dave Dombrowski made trades with the hope of keeping that window open, but had to acknowledge reality by the trade deadline and begin the process of trading veterans for young prospects. Owner Mike Ilitch apparently didn’t like that it came to this, firing Dombrowski in early August. New GM Al Avila has been Dombrowski’s right-hand man in Detroit, which means the front office shouldn’t change drastically. But a different approach is probably necessary for a team in transition.
Preseason Prediction: I think the high 80’s for win total is within reason, but with Cleveland still there and the Royals technically still there, I can’t predict an easy fifth straight division title. And in that division, a win total in the high 80’s most likely won’t get you into the wild card if the A’s, Angels and Blue Jays have anything to say about it. It’s going to be a tough season for the Tigers in 2015, but they’ll most likely go all out knowing this might be their last best chance at a ring with this core group. (Tim Livingston, March 19)
What Went Right: Despite being sidelined for six weeks with a calf injury, Miguel Cabrera posted another spectacular season. His .337 batting average leads MLB and would give him his fourth batting title in the past five seasons, while his .440 on-base percentage is best among AL hitters. In mid-August, Cabrera had a shot at being the first hitter to hit .370 since Ichiro Suzuki in 2004, but a rough September (.250 in 94 plate appearances) dashed that possibility.
Justin Verlander may be the Tigers’ ace again, providing some optimism for a rotation yearning for some good news next season. He missed the first 10 weeks of the season with a triceps strain and didn’t pitch very well upon his return. In five starts before the All-Star break, Verlander posted a 5.34 ERA with 18 strikeouts and 11 walks in 30.1 innings. But during the second half, the right-hander has looked more like the No. 1 starter that the Tigers desperately need, striking out 81 batters in 91 innings and compiling a 2.87 ERA.
David Price pitched like an AL Cy Young Award candidate, going 9-4 with a 2.53 ERA. Yoenis Cespedes got on base consistently and produced runs, compiling an .860 OPS, 18 home runs and 61 RBI. And Joakim Soria was reliable in the ninth inning, notching 23 saves in 26 opportunities with 36 strikeouts in 41 innings. But all three became trade bait once it became clear the Tigers wouldn’t contend and dealt for young pitching that the organization hasn’t had for years.
SEATTLE, WA – JULY 06: Starting pitcher Alfredo Simon #31 of the Detroit Tigers pauses on the mound after giving up an RBI double to Brad Miller of the Seattle Mariners in the fourth inning at Safeco Field on July 6, 2015 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
What Went Wrong: Dombrowski hoped he could replace Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello with Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene, a disastrous misfire. Simon has a 5.18 ERA in 30 starts, the worst among starting pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Greene was even worse, compiling a 6.88 ERA and getting demoted to the minors before developing an artery issue in his right shoulder that required season-ending surgery. Anibal Sanchez wasn’t much better, serving up an MLB-leading 29 homers in 25 starts to go with a 4.99 ERA. He was shut down in late August with a strained rotator cuff.
Slowed by an injury to a left knee that’s already had two surgeries, Victor Martinez had the worst season of his 13-year career. It’s not even close. In 482 plate appearances, the 36-year-old DH has a triple-slash average of .243/.299/.364, lowest among all Detroit everyday players. A Tigers lineup in which Martinez isn’t one of the best hitters isn’t going to terribly effective, which is why he was signed to a four-year, $68 million contract last November. With three years and $54 million remaining on that deal, Detroit has to hope that Martinez won’t continue to be plagued by injury and can be a consistent run producer behind Cabrera in the batting order.
Worst of all, the bullpen continued to be a problem for the Tigers, the fatal flaw that Dombrowski could never fix in the nearly 10 years since Detroit became a perennial playoff contender. Among AL teams, only the A’s had a worse ERA from their relievers than the Tigers’ 4.47 mark. Other than Soria, Detroit had no reliable option out of the bullpen and Ausmus exacerbated the problem by keeping relievers restricted to designated roles rather than using better pitchers like Alex Wilson in high-leverage situations when needed. Dombrowski provided little for the manager to work with, but Ausmus was also surprisingly conventional in how he utilized his relief corps.
DETROIT, MI – JUNE 25: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates after hitting a two-run home run against the Chicago White Sox during the fifth inning at Comerica Park on June 25, 2015 in Detroit, Michigan. The White Sox defeated the Tigers 8-7. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
Most Surprising Player: J.D. Martinez showed his breakout 2014 season was no fluke, slugging 37 home runs to go with 31 doubles and 98 RBI and providing another potent right-handed bat to team with Miguel Cabrera in the Tigers’ lineup. Martinez has two more seasons of arbitration eligibility, making him one of the best bargains in MLB and a great value on a roster with some expensive contracts. Picked up off waivers after the Astros released him last spring, he’s been one of the best (and luckiest) acquisitions of the Dombrowski regime.
Most Disappointing Player: Bruce Rondon has been viewed as future closer material for the past four seasons. His failure to develop at the major league level, in addition to significant injury (he had Tommy John surgery in 2014), forced the Tigers to spend money on free agent closer Joe Nathan and trade valued prospects for Soria. Rondon struggled with injuries again, but was ineffective when he able to pitch, compiling a 5.81 ERA in 35 appearances. Worst of all, he was sent home with two weeks left in the regular season for poor “effort level,” reportedly not throwing to full capability. At 24, he’s awfully young to give up on, but the Tigers may decide that he’s already had enough opportunities.
The Future: Deciding to bring back Ausmus was a baffling decision, considering the difficulties he’s had with game management and a fanbase that’s already turned on him. (There were also rumblings after Dombrowski’s dismissal that owner Mike Ilitch was never supportive of hiring Ausmus in the first place.) But retaining him seems to be an acknowledgement that the front office provided little to work with, especially with the bullpen. If the roster can be improved in the offseason, perhaps we’ll get a better idea of Ausmus’ abilities as a manager.
The Tigers still have a talented core of players to build around, led by Cabrera, Verlander and the two Martinezes (provided Victor can stay healthy). Young players such as Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, James McCann and Daniel Norris provide some promise for the future. But there are still significant flaws that need addressing, notably the bullpen and starting rotation. Finding a left fielder will also be on Avila’s offseason agenda. With little to trade, Ilitch will probably have to open his free agent checkbook to upgrade the talent level for next season.
Yet with the Royals’ ascendance, the Twins emerging as a contender this year, and the Indians some excellent young starting pitching, competing in the AL Central will likely be difficult for Detroit. Keeping Ausmus may be conceding that this team is closer to rebuilding than it is to contending. At the very least, the “reboot” that began at the trade deadline is a project that could continue through next year as the Tigers try to become younger and Avila attempts to remake the roster in his vision.
