We’re about two and a half months away from the qualifying offer deadline this offseason, and we’ve been getting to thinking about players that have played themselves into and out of situations where the offer would apply.
For instance, Wei-Yin Chen of the Orioles has pitched himself into a position where a qualifying offer seems to be a certainty (assuming there’s not a Cespedes-esque clause in his contract that no one has mentioned). Chris Davis has also stopped straddling the line in Baltimore and turned himself into a player guaranteed to get an offer following a white hot first 28 games of the second half.
On the other side of the coin in Baltimore, Matt Wieters’ health and performance this season has made a potential qualifying offer a huge risk for the Orioles.
However, there’s one player that has firmly played himself from “guaranteed qualifying offer” to “absolutely no qualifying offer” – Washington Nationals starter reliever Doug Fister.
Fister’s performance this season has been wretched. In 15 starts and a pair of relief appearances, Fister has tossed just 89 innings. He has a 4.45 ERA, 52 strikeouts, and 20 walks. The 31-year old’s 13.2% strikeout rate is his worst since 2010, and ranks 119th out of 129 pitchers in baseball with at least 80 innings on the hill. His walk rate of 5.1% remains better than the MLB average of 7.5%, but is his worst mark in a season since 2012. his first full season in Detroit.
Washington has also seen their starter’s velocity drop, as his fastball has plummeted to a career-worst 86.1 mph and his slider has fallen to another career-worst, 81.7 mph. And it’s not as if the drop has been getting worse all season or has gotten better lately – it’s been rough all year.
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 07: Doug Fister #33 of the Washington Nationals looks on during a baseball game against the WColorado Rockies at Nationals Park on August 7, 2015 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Health has also been a concern for Fister, as he’s spent time on the DL for the fourth time in the last four seasons, this time with the ever so vague and concerning “forearm tightness”. Since returning from the DL, his strikeout and walk rates have gone in the right direction, but his homer rate has spiked, he’s still been incredibly hittable, and he’s pitched into the seventh inning just once (that is, before his demotion to the bullpen).
If Fister was even given a qualifying offer by the Nationals, he’d probably end up accepting it and the estimated $16 million salary that comes along with it. That wouldn’t be good news for a Nationals team that already has $95 million tied up in payroll with Fister, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, and Denard Span all looking like impending free agents.
Before the season, there was a strong argument to be made in favor of all four of those players getting qualifying offers. Now, Zimmermann is the only guarantee, with Fister (performance/injury), Desmond (performance), and Span (injury) all becoming players that the Nationals will have to think about not giving offers.
Another reason Fister likely won’t get a qualifying offer is the strength of the starting pitching market this offseason. Following their trades this July, Johnny Cueto, David Price, Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake aren’t eligible for qualifying offers, and they’ll be even more desirable without draft pick compensation attached to them.
The aforementioned Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke (opt-out), Hisashi Iwakuma, and Zimmermann will all more than likely get qualifying offers, and all of those pitchers are simply better and more worthy of sacrificing a draft pick to sign than Fister. If Fister was foolishly given a qualifying offer, and even more foolishly didn’t accept it, he’d likely end up stuck in free agent purgatory until Spring Training like Kyle Lohse and Ervin Santana have been in recent seasons.
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 12: Ian Desmond #20 of the Washington Nationals reacts to his strikeout to end the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on August 12, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Oddly, if there’s one other impending free agent that has damaged his value this year as much as Fister has this season, it’s his teammate, Ian Desmond. Desmond has hit just .225/.275/.385 this year with 15 homers and ten steals, a far cry from the .275/.326/.462 line with 23 homers and 22 steals he averaged over the last three seasons. But Desmond has gotten hot in the second half, hitting .272/.336/.544 over 29 games and already homering eight times and stealing five bases, besting or matching his first half totals. By the time the year is done, he can end up with another 20 homer, 15 steal season.
Desmond also benefits from the absolute brutal state of the shortstop market this winter – he’s head and shoulders the best free agent that will be available, and the only other remotely comparable alternatives will be a 36-year old Jimmy Rollins and former teammate Asdrubal Cabrera. He’ll end up getting paid this winter – maybe not as much as he imagined he would have a year ago, but if he stays hot, enough to make a qualifying offer (and the eventual denial) a reality from the Nationals.
As for Fister, he’s probably not going to have much of an opportunity to reclaim his value this season, barring another injury in Washington’s rotation. Max Scherzer isn’t going anywhere, despite looking human as of late. Neither is Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez (signed through 2016 with a pair of club options through 2018), or Stephen Strasburg (barring another injury, of course).
As for the man that replaced Fister, Joe Ross? Well, he’s allowed nine runs in his last 8 2/3 innings, but spun quality starts in six of his first seven outings of the year prior to those struggles. Unless the Nationals decide to shut him down in September because of his approach to an arbitrary innings limit, he’s in the rotation to stay.
