The Dodgers were and still are clear favorites to win the NL West division. But the path to that destination just got a lot more difficult. Hyun-Jin Ryu just had shoulder surgery that will side-line him for the remainder of the season. The Dodgers still have a dominating top of the rotation with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke but without hope for Ryu’s return, the drop-off from them just got a bit steeper. So what do the Dodgers do now? Basically they have two options: Do nothing or trade for a starter. One could make a compelling argument for either.
Right now the Dodgers rotation is comprised of Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, Brett Anderson, Mike Bolsinger, and Carlos Frias. Anderson is a decent option but might be better suited as the fourth starter instead of third. Bolsinger and Frias are back-end starters and the Dodgers are probably looking to replace at least one of them. So let’s analyze their options.
Option 1: Do Nothing
Doing nothing is often viewed as a weak move lacking a definitive plan. But one might argue the Dodger’s offseason acquisitions was a back-up plan to this exact scenario. They did trade a starter (Dan Haren) but acquired three more: Brandon McCarthy (out for season), Brett Anderson (already in rotation), and Brandon Beachy.
Brandon Beachy was at one time considered a pretty good pitching prospect with the Braves. He fared quite well (3.23 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.54 xFIP) in 267.2 IP across parts of 4 seasons. His problem has been health. Last year he had his second Tommy John surgery and the Braves released him in the offseason.
Recovery rates for second TJ surgery aren’t as optimistic as the first one, but Beachy did recently pitch two innings in a simulated game and reported no discomfort. If he’s nearing the point where he can start rehabbing in real minor league games he could just be a month away from returning to action.
If Beachy can perform up to the level he was capable pre-surgery (admittedly a big if) he could be a huge boon to the Dodgers rotation. But he’s not the only in-house option. Pitching phenom Julio Urias and Jose De Leon could find themselves in the major league rotation at some point this year.
Urias just had cosmetic eye surgery and will be out for a month. He was pitching quite well at AA and was probably slated for a promotion to AAA sooner than later. Jose De Leon did just get promoted to AA so he might even be more of a long shot. Both probably represent later season call-ups. So while both might get some starts neither likely factors strongly into the Dodgers plans for this year.
Option 2: Trade for a Starter
The Dodgers have massive amounts of money, a really strong major league team, and an impressive collection of minor league talent. It almost feels unfair. Suffice it to say, they can basically get anyone they want. Money won’t be an obstacle and the only thing that will stop them from getting any starting pitcher is deciding they don’t want to or need to part with their top prospects.
Everyone will immediately point to Cole Hamels. He was one of the major story-lines in the offseason and the Phillies not trading him then has kept him on everyone’s mind. Clearly the Phillies want to trade him but more than that they need to trade him so obviously he’ll be available. The question is will the Dodgers find it necessary to part with the prospect package it will take to get him? My gut says no.
Part of the attractiveness Hamels provides is team control for more than just this season at what is now a pretty reasonable rate for a pitcher of his caliber. He’s under team control through 2018 with a vesting option for 2019. He makes $22.5 million each season. Yes it’s a lot, but not what guys like Verlander and Kershaw make.
The thing is, the Dodgers have Kershaw locked down for years. Maybe Greinke too, though he has an opt out in his contract after this year. They also have Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy under team control for years. That’s not to mention kids like Julio Urias and Jose De Leon who could be ready by next year. Maybe they don’t want to add a long term contract like Hamels to the mix.
If he’s available (and he really should be) my money would be on the Dodgers attempting to acquire Reds’ ace Johnny Cueto. In terms of prospects, he won’t come cheap. But he’ll be significantly cheaper than Cole Hamels. That’s because he’s in the final year of his current contract. Both of those aspects could be positives in the eyes of the Dodgers.
Another option could be Scott Kazmir. He’s also on the final year of his contract and he’ll probably be somewhat cheaper than Cueto. It probably depends on what’s more important to the Dodgers: Performance upside or cost of acquisition.
While Kazmir has been very effective this year and last, he doesn’t have the same track record as Cueto. He also has a history of injury, though any concern about that would be lessened based on the fact that he’d just be a rental. While Cueto will cost more to get he’s a much safer bet to give a moderately to significantly better performance.
Final Thoughts
Despite losing Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy for the season, the Dodgers still have pretty decent depth. They definitely have the type of offense that can weather a mediocre back-end of a rotation. Brett Anderson, Carlos Frias, and Mike Bolsinger are fine for now. If/when Brandon Beachy is ready to return he could provide a moderate to significant upgrade to that back-end. But when they get to the playoffs the Dodgers are going to want a better top end.
That’s why guys like Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Jon Niese, and even Scott Kazmir feel like unlikely fits. The Dodgers can afford better. But they don’t necessarily need to pay as much as it will take to get Cole Hamels. Nor does it seem like his team control would necessarily be viewed as a positive by them.
Johnny Cueto, at least right now, seems like the best choice for this Dodgers team. The Reds might not want to brand themselves as a rebuilding club, but that’s exactly what they should be doing. They’re in third place in the NL Central right now, but that equates to 8.5 games back of first. If they don’t make Cueto available at the trade deadline I’ll be shocked. And if a team beats out the Dodgers for his services I’ll be similarly surprised.
