The snarky response to the news that Brandon McCarthy would miss the rest of the 2015 season was that the Dodgers’ mega-payroll of $270 million can’t buy a fully healthy pitching staff.
McCarthy’s torn ulnar collateral ligament was announced by the Dodgers on Monday. The right-hander, 31, will undergo Tommy John surgery and the recovery process is expected to keep him sidelined until at least next July. The injury further depletes what was already a thin Dodgers rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn’t pitched yet this season, out with inflammation and tightness in his left shoulder, and his return is uncertain.
Of course, the Dodgers have two elite arms at the top of their rotation in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. That’s due in part to their seemingly bottomless budget, with Kershaw signing a seven-year, $215 million extension last year and Greinke getting a six-year, $147 million contract in 2013. (Greinke can opt out of the deal after this season.) But the team didn’t build much depth behind those two. Scott Baker and Brett Anderson fill out the next couple of spots in the Dodgers rotation.
Baker, 33, was essentially a scrap heap pick-up, signing just before the regular season started. He compiled a 5.47 ERA in 25 appearances with the Rangers last year. But Baker’s first start for the Dodgers (April 26) was pretty good, allowing three runs and four hits (two of them home runs) over seven innings versus the Padres. That level of performance would be fine for the back of the rotation. Unfortunately, he might be the Dodgers’ third-best starter right now.
Anderson, 27, was more of a potential upside signing. When healthy, the left-hander is a strong mid-rotation starter. But staying in the lineup has been the issue. He’s averaged 12 starts per season over his seven-year MLB career. But last year, Anderson notched a 2.91 ERA in eight starts for the Rockies, showing he can still provide good stuff to a big league pitching staff. In four starts with the Dodgers, he’s compiled a 5.49 ERA, only pitching more than five innings once. Again, that might be OK for the back of the rotation, but injuries have put him in a more key position.
:LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 27: Brett Anderson #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the third inning against the San Francisco Giants during the MLB game at Dodger Stadium on April 27, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)
To be fair, any club’s depth doesn’t look very strong once injuries become a significant factor. Interestingly, the Dodgers accumulated plenty of low-cost, high-risk arms for their bullpen to guard against injuries wiping out depth. Sergio Santos, Chad Gaudin and David Aardsma were among the relievers the front office stashed, looking for turnaround seasons from players seeking to rebuild their value.
That approach doesn’t necessarily work as well with starting pitchers, if for no other reason than there’s less supply available. In addition to Anderson, the Dodgers signed Brandon Beachy during the offseason, coming off Tommy John surgery in early 2014. That move could pay off in about a month or so, as Beachy’s recovery has been smooth, putting him on target for a June debut. But how much can be expected from him, especially since Beachy is coming back from his second reconstructive procedure?
The Dodgers do have some other options from their Triple-A club to try out, with three, perhaps four arms that could fill one or two spots.
Mike Bolsinger has already made one start for the Dodgers (April 23), in which he allowed one run and five hits in 5.2 innings against the Giants. Prior to that, he struck out 17 batters in 11 scoreless innings for Oklahoma City. Zach Lee has been impressive in his first three starts of the season, compiling an 0.95 ERA with 18 strikeouts and four walks in 19 innings. And Joe Wieland, part of the Matt Kemp trade with the Padres, will likely get a shot. In three starts, he’s posted a 3.00 ERA with 17 strikeouts and two walks in 15 innings.
Carlos Frias, already called up last week to help the bullpen, is another possibility. The 25-year-old has pitched two scoreless appearances for the Dodgers. Prior to that, he struck out 15 batters in 12.2 innings with a 2.84 ERA in three appearances (two of them starts) in Triple-A.
Could top pitching prospect Julio Urias get the call? Dodgers general manager Andrew Friedman ruled that out when asked about it. Urias will turn 19 in August and began the season with Double-A Tulsa. Though he’s been impressive in four starts, striking out 26 batters in 20.2 innings to go with a 2.45 ERA, calling Urias up at this point of his career would be rushing him. Realistically, he probably needs at least one more year of development, probably two, before being ready for the majors.
USA Today Sports-Jake Roth
So the Dodgers do have quite a few arms to throw at the openings in their rotation. But will they be good enough? Should a team with championship aspirations aim higher? In all likelihood, that’s going to happen.
Cole Hamels will certainly be mentioned as a trade target for the Dodgers. Their massive payroll can take on the $90 million remaining on his contract through 2018. However, getting Hamels will require giving up one or more top prospects, such as Urias, center fielder Joc Pederson or shortstop Corey Seager. Friedman may ultimately decide keeping this team on the championship track is worth trading a key piece of the future. But given the contract status of Jimmy Rollins and Juan Uribe, dealing Seager seems doubtful.
The same could apply to other potentially available starters, such as the Reds’ Johnny Cueto. If the White Sox continue to struggle, Jeff Samardzija might be a trade target. And if the Nationals keep playing below expectations, maybe Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmerman could be targeted as well. Yet since those pitchers can be free agents after the season, Friedman likely won’t have to give up one of his top three young players. But you know those other teams will ask.
It’s possible a rotation of Kershaw and Greinke, followed by a half-dozen other arms (or perhaps a lower-tier trade target like the Brewers’ Kyle Lohse) could be good enough to make it to the postseason. However, Friedman might have a tough decision on his hands if the Dodgers have difficulty staving off the competition in the NL West and wild-card races. Making it to the playoffs isn’t good enough, either. This team is expected to make a World Series run. Last year’s postseason showed that a team can advance with one or two great starters, but it better have plenty of quality bullpen arms on hand.
The Dodgers won’t be the only postseason contender looking for a starting rotation upgrade either. The Cardinals are probably mulling over many of the same options after losing Adam Wainwright for the season. Getting a ace-caliber pitcher like Hamels might be even more of an urgency for St. Louis, since it now doesn’t have a No. 1 starter. Which team decides to part with a cherished prospect will ultimately be the one that nabs the top prize in the trade market. And that move could end up having championship implications.
