Darren O’Day has probably slid under a lot of mainstream radars. The eight year veteran never been a closer so he doesn’t have the lofty save totals to pad his coffers. However, he’s being heavily pursued early on and will likely get a relatively lucrative contract for a reliever. What is it about the Orioles former set-up man that has him so sought after?
It’s actually quite straightforward. He’s a superb reliever. In the last four years, he’s averaged a 1.92 ERA. That’s the eighth-best mark among all relievers in that time span just behind Aroldis Chapman’s 1.90 ERA. We’re talking about four years of success here, so we know it’s not a fluke.
In fact, outside of his first year in MLB, he’s only had one season where he finished with an ERA above 2.28. He had a 3.78 HR/9 that year, which was clearly a fluke. Home runs have never been a problem for O’Day. His next highest home run rate was 1.02 HR/9 in 2013. Every other season he kept that number below 1.00.
In several ways he’s actually improved over the last few years.
| Year | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WHIP | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 67.0 | 9.27 | 1.88 | 0.81 | 1.99 | 2.28 | 2.96 |
| 2013 | 62.0 | 8.56 | 2.18 | 1.02 | 2.07 | 2.18 | 3.58 |
| 2014 | 68.2 | 9.57 | 2.49 | 0.79 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 3.32 |
| 2015 | 65.1 | 11.30 | 1.93 | 0.69 | 1.97 | 1.52 | 3.05 |
Darren O’Day appears to have reached another level in the most recent two seasons. He notched his best strikeout rate, lowest home run rates, and lowest ERA. Each season is impressive in it’s own right but it helps his free agent case that the best two were the last two years.
Another thing that helps his case is the thin market for relievers. There isn’t a single “proven closer” on the market. As far as high leverage relievers go, there aren’t much to choose from. Tyler Clippard, Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria, and Antonio Bastardo are the next tier of relievers and they might be two tiers down from O’Day. Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and Francisco Rodriguez among others might become available in a trade. But why go that route when you can just pay money for Darren O’Day?
The one answer – for some clubs – is that he’s going to get paid a lot. Last year, Andrew Miller made bank off the Yankees. They gave him four years and $36 million. David Robertson beat that with his four-year, $46 million contract from the White Sox. I don’t think Darren O’Day will get quite that much. But I think four years is going to happen and $40 million is within the realm of possibility. Given the fact that he reportedly has “multiple offers in hand” already, a large contract seems like an inevitability at this point. That’s thanks in large part to his effectiveness, but it gets a nice bump from the lack of alternatives.
Darren O’Day has been an excellent reliever for the last four years. In several ways, he’s improved in the last two seasons. He’s coming off the best season of his career. And now he’s entering a free agent class that is anemic in high leverage relievers. Darren O’Day is poised to score one of the the biggest free agent contract for a reliever ever and beat every other reliever on the market by a wide margin.
Statistics and contract details courtesy of FanGraphs
