Earlier this week, I gave you a list of players I thought most likely to accept the qualifying offer – a one year contract worth $15.8 million. As is the way of things, that list did not include Colby Rasmus. I looked at his offensive numbers and assumed even in this robust outfield market that he could secure a 3 year deal. Until today, that would have been enough for a player to decline the offer and risk free agency. However, Colby Rasmus clearly felt differently as he becomes the first player in history to accept the qualifying offer.
The system was established three years ago. In those three years, 34 players were given the qualifying offer. And every single one of them had declined the offer, forcing serious consideration as to whether the system was working at all. This year, 20 players (the most in a single year) have been extended the QO.
By FanGraphs’ metric, Colby Rasmus was worth 2.8 fWAR for the Astros playing all three outfield positions. He hit .238/.314/75 with 25 home runs. That was good for a 115 wRC+, giving him three consecutive years as an above average hitter – he posted a 130 wRC+ in 2013 and a 104 in 2014.
As a left-handed hitter, you might have expected him to struggle vs same handed pitching, but the opposite was true this year. It’s not a skill he’s shown in the past, though it is interesting to note that he’s improved over the last three years in that capacity: 50 wRC+ in 2012, 93 in 2013, 94 in 2014, and 132 in 2015. That jump is likely a fluke, but he has seemed to improve enough that he probably doesn’t require a platoon.
A player capable of manning center field with 20+ home run power doesn’t come around often. At just 29-years old, I thought for sure Rasmus would decline the qualifying offer and risk free agency. But perhaps he felt the market would work against him. It’s quite stacked with outfielder both upper and mid-tier. Next year, the options are sparser and he could find himself in a much better position to capitalize. He’ll just be 30-years old then and should be in line for a multi-year deal, assuming he continues producing offensively.
It will be interesting to see how the market adjusts in the future, if at all. Next winter, MLB and the players association will need to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement. The players will want to amend the current qualifying offer system because it can be unfair to players like Colby Rasmus. However, if a number of them accept offers this year, the owners will argue that it’s doing what it’s designed to do.
A player like Colby Rasmus – unencumbered by the QO – would likely have secured a three-year deal on the open market. However he would not have gotten close to the $15.8 million annual average value. But there is comfort and security knowing he would be employed for three years. While the QO generally guarantees a higher single year salary than would otherwise be available to a player, it does not offer that security nor the total monetary value of a hypothetical multi-year deal. So is that fair or not?
As for the Astros’ part in this, they now have three players capable of playing center field, to vary degrees of effectiveness. Carlos Gomez should be penciled in as the primary fixture at that position. But George Springer is good enough to play there on occasion as well. It’s an enviable position for a team that stands to improve on paper quite a good deal next year.
