The Philadelphia Phillies have traded Marlon Byrd and Jimmy Rollins this winter, have aggressively tried (and failed) to move both Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon, and are listening on Cole Hamels. The forgotten man in their rebuild is Cliff Lee, who made just three starts after mid-May because of an elbow strain. But according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the Phillies could still move Lee, and a trade could come before the 2015 season begins.
One exec who spoke with #Phillies says he was told they could move Cliff Lee as soon as spring training if he proves he's healthy
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) February 6, 2015
There wouldn’t be much of a long-term commitment to him, because Lee is a free agent after the 2015 season. He’s owed $25 million in 2015, and has a club option for 2016 worth $27.5 million with a $12.5 million buyout. The option for 2016 can vest if Lee isn’t on the DL to end 2015, and if he throws at least 200 innings during the season. Prior to his injury-shortened 2014, Lee had thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last six seasons.
In 2014, Lee made just 13 starts, tossing 81 1/3 innings with a 3.65 ERA. He struck out 72 and walked just 12. He made just three starts in July after spending two months on the DL, and wasn’t great – he pitched to a 6.08 ERA over 13 1/3 innings, striking out 11, walking three, and allowing a .373/.426/.526 line to opposing hitters. There was also a noticeable drop in his velocity, as his average fastball velocity fell to just above 89 mph. Prior to the injury, his fastball sat at 91.
The 36-year old Lee would be a tantalizing upgrade for teams needing starting pitching. He’s truly a complete package, combining a low walk rate with a high strikeout rate, and the ability to eat innings like he’s Pac-Man. However, there’s some risk there, which is why any team looking to acquire Lee would need to be certain he’s healthy before pulling the trigger. When you have a pitcher in his mid-30s with a strained flexor tendon, you need to tread lightly.
There’s also the matter of Lee’s no-trade clause, which could complicate things. Lee can decline trades to 20 of the 29 other teams in baseball, and of the nine he can be dealt to without his approval, the only ones I can see making a move for Lee would be the Padres and perhaps the Marlins. If a team that Lee can decline a trade to wants to acquire him, I’d assume he’d require his 2016 option to be picked up. That turns a minimum investment of $37.5 million (plus prospects) into an investment of $52.5 million (plus prospects), making him a bit less of a commodity.
This certainly is a situation to keep an eye on – it could get very interesting in a few weeks.
