The Cincinnati Reds are a mess. The sit 27.5 games back in the NL Central, 21 back in the Wild Card race, and are further hampered by the fact that the three best teams in the National League currently reside within their division. While they had initially expected to compete for the division this year, it didn’t take long for things to go south as they were more than 10 games back by the end of May and were clear sellers by the end of July.
If that wasn’t bad enough, a nine game losing streak and 17 losses in 23 games in August has really solidified the notion that the Reds not only aren’t serious contenders in 2015, but they probably won’t in 2016. While they still have a few exciting players, a nearly full rebuild seems to be in order.
Disagreeing with this is Reds GM Walt Jocketty. While they did sell Johnny Cueto to the Royals at the deadline and recently dealt Marlon Byrd to the Giants in a waiver trade, the Reds retain three players who will be free agents after this season and three more that will be free agents after next season. Rather than move these players for assets or simply rid themselves of some of the players that caused them to be more than 20 games out of a play-off spot to showcase some younger players, the youth movement has yet to happen.
While they have dropped the team age from being one of the oldest in baseball to being in the middle of the pack at an average of 28.6 now, the current roster make-up doesn’t look like one that is rebuilding for the future. The Reds will have to build the future roster around the contracts of Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, who are both signed for significant deals through 2019 (all the way through 2023 for Votto), but most of the other veterans will not be around through 2017.
The biggest miss for the Reds appears to be holding on to Aroldis Chapman through the trade deadline. Arguably the best closer in baseball, there were plenty of suitors including the Arizona Diamondbacks, yet the Reds held onto their relief ace. Chapman was likely the most valuable piece the Reds had to trade thanks to his contract situation (2016 will be his third year of arbitration), yet their asking price was astounding. Jocketty will most likely look to move Chapman again this off-season, but without the intense AL Wild Card as motivation, the returns will likely be decreased. A great closer is the most useless extravagance for a team who can’t get a lead in the first place and moving him at the deadline would have maximized the quality and amount of players in return without costing the team much in wins.
Two other players of trade interest should be Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. The pair are owed a combined $25.5M in 2016, and Phillips is due another $14M in 2017, both seasons that the Reds are unlikely to compete. There is no better way for Cincinnati to free up salary and bring in a solid return in prospects than to move Chapman, Phillips, and Bruce despite how unpopular these moves would be.
Moving Byrd late was a good move, but it’s going to take a lot more to turn around this franchise. While there are solid pieces, including new shortstop Eugenio Suarez (while Zack Cozart is out, at least), Raisel Iglesias and Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier, there simply isn’t enough around them to compete in the near future. The team should be better than it is even without any roster changes, but even at it’s peak couldn’t compete with the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs.
At some point, the Reds are going to get blown up, either intentionally this season, or after all their veterans leave through free agency. They still have time to take advantage of the situation and return some talented prospects in exchange for the stars they still have. With this, they could possibly be back to being a top franchise within a few years. The other option is to keep fighting for mediocrity for the sake of retaining popular players. This may make 2016 a little more interesting, but it will cost them in the end.
