A lot has been made of Evan Gattis’ ineptness at the plate, but what about Chris Carter’s?
Carter has always been labeled as a “hacker.” He’s notoriously known for being an all-or-nothing type player, meaning he either hits the ball a mile or doesn’t hit it at all. The Astros’ slugger had a breakout year in 2014, posting a career high 1.8 WAR, which would have been astronomically higher if his defense was even just average. In parts of six major league seasons, Carter has 86 home runs — including 37 in 2014 — and has struck out 33.8% of the time. Among players with at least 1500 plate appearances since 2010, no one has struck out at a higher rate than Carter. And it’s not like he swings at bad pitches as his career 29.1% chase rate isn’t anything out of the ordinary.
For the most part, Carter swings at strikes and takes his walks. However, so far in 2015, Carter has been whiffing on plenty of pitches in the zone, even more than he did last season.
| Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 72.5% | 77.8% | 65.3% | 16.5% |
| 2015 | 74.3% | 70.5% | 62.0% | 19.2% |
Carter’s decrease in zone contact percentage is alarming. A drop of 7 percent is a big deal in almost any statistical category, and it’s something the Houston Astros should be concerned about, even if the sample is to small to put much merit into it. Only two players have whiffed on more strikes than Carter, and coincidentally, three of the bottom four in Z-Contact% play for Houston. Maybe it’s an Astros thing.
And yet, there’s something even more (yes, I said more) unnerving about Carter’s swing profle, though. We know that he’s missing on a lot of strikes, but he’s also swinging at more of them. His swing percentage is up and is contact percentage is down. It’s no wonder he’s in the cellar in offensive categories.
Carter’s inability to hit strikes has played big role in why he has struggled so mightily this season, yet he owns an unlucky .207 batting average on balls in play. His low BABIP can be contributed to the fact that he’s stopped hitting fly balls (down 11%) and replaced them with ground balls (up 19%). That has resulted in just one home run (his only extra-base hit) in 60 at-bats.
The good news for Carter is that he’s still generating hard hit balls. His average batted ball velocity sits at 91.28 mph. History tells us that his BABIP will go up, as well as his home runs and extra-base hits. But, if he continues to have trouble with strikes, we can’t expect him to be the player he was last season.
