Before the season started, I chose five pitchers who I thought had a small, but legitimate shot at garnering at least a few Cy Young votes. Now, with the season just over halfway complete, it’s time to check in on how my dark horses are performing.
Jose Quintana – Chicago White Sox
Through 16 starts, Jose Quintana’s numbers are solid; however, they are not Cy Young-like nor are they ace-like. The lefty owns a 3.81 ERA and a bit more impressive 3.31 FIP. Quintana hasn’t struck out as many batters (19.9 K%) as I expected, but he’s also had some bad luck on his side. He’s given up an outrageously high batting average on balls in play at a .337 clip. Only seven other qualified starting pitchers have given up a higher rate. Still, his Wins Above Replacement is among the top 35 in MLB. Don’t count him out just yet.
MILWAUKEE, WI – JUNE 23: Mike Fiers #50 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets at Miller Park on June 23, 2015 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)
Mike Fiers – Milwaukee Brewers
With what Mike Fiers did in the years 2012 and 2014, I had no hesitation in putting him in my Cy Young list. Up until this season, he was a massive strikeout pitcher and didn’t really walk anyone. And while his strikeouts are still there, his ability to limit free passes as vanished. His walk rate has gone from 6.2% in 2014 to 8.6% this season. Home runs have always plagued the soft-throwing righty. And, like Quintana, has suffered from an unusually high BABIP. Nonetheless, Fiers’ numbers are extremely good for a No. 4 pitcher. He ranks 41st in WAR, with an ERA of 3.83 and a FIP of 3.66. With how bad the Brewers are, Fiers probably won’t get any votes for the prestigious award, but you should still keep an eye on his performance.
WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 04: Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the third inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 4, 2015 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Jake Arrieta – Chicago Cubs
Jake Arrieta, in terms of WAR, has been baseball’s 11th-best starting pitcher in 2015. He’s been phenomenal for the Cubbies, the team who positively altered his career. Coming off a fantastic year in 2014, Arrieta has picked up right where he left off. His ERA of 2.80 is mirrored by his FIP (2.73) and xFIP (2.73). He has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the game, and has even managed to up his groundball rate to over 50%. As of right now, Arrieta should be one of the leading candidates for the Cy Young award.
HOUSTON, TX – JUNE 25: Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros celebrates after a complete-game shutout as the Astros defeated the New York Yankees 4-0 at Minute Maid Park on June 25, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros
I don’t like tooting my own horn, but I deserve a pat on the back for this one. Dallas Keuchel has a WAR of 3.2. Only five pitchers have been worth more wins. In other words, Keuchel has a legitimate shot at taking home the award. His ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all under 3.00. Yeah, he’s been that good. And he’s doing it without punching hitters out. It’s his knack for getting ground balls and trusting in his defense to do the rest of the work. Keuchel’s 63.7% groundball rate is second only to Brett Anderson of the Dodgers. Furthermore, no pitcher goes deeper into games than Keuchel. His 130.1 innings pitched is the most in baseball, and by a fair amount.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – JUNE 11: Garrett Richards #43 of the Los Angeles Angels pitches during the first inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Garrett Richards – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Garrett Richards has been very good for the Angels since returning from tearing his knee up a season ago, don’t get me wrong. But he’s not the “oh, wow” type of hurler his knee went nuts. I thought he’d turn into an indisputable ace this season, but that has yet to happened. His strikeouts are way down and his walks are way up. He’s getting more swinging strikes than ever before, but the quality of contact is much better against him. He still has a great ERA of 3.35, but he has the lowest WAR of anyone on my list.
