The Rockies had a chance to trade Carlos Gonzalez before season started. In fact they’ve had many chances over the last couple of years. Or at the very least they could have tried. They haven’t finished above .500 since 2010 (83-79) so it’s not like they kept him because they were in the midst of a playoff push. Now it looks like CarGo isn’t going anywhere but down. If that’s true Colorado missed their chance to get most out of moving his contract if that’s even still a possibility.
As of writing this Carlos Gonzalez is slashing .188/.245/.297 (.243 wOBA, 33 wRC+). That’s horrible and not at all what one might expect from a player who previously was considered an MVP caliber performer. Obviously something is wrong or different with CarGo now than in past seasons. The real question is if this is just a fluke or something more permanent.
Usually one of the first things I do when checking to see what’s wrong with a player is look for trends over the past few seasons. Often you can notice a decline in certain areas over a number of years that suggests the player is in decline.
From 2010-2013 CarGo was a consistent .300+ AVG, 20/20 guy with mid 300 BABIP, 200+ ISO, approximately 8-9 BB%, and mostly league average K%. Then last year he slashed .238/.292/.431, with 11 HR, 3 SB, .192 ISO, .283 BABIP, 6.8 BB%, and 24.9 K%. It should be noted that he was injured and only played in 70 games. But this year (short sample size still applies) is looking a lot like last year.
His walk rate (7.8 BB%) is slightly better but still below his previous career norms. His strike out rate (24.5 K%) is disturbingly similar to last year’s. Digging deeper we see his swinging strike percentage jumped last year to 15.4 % and this year it’s sitting at 14.8%. This actually appears to be a trend as his SwStr% has been slowly but steadily rising from 2009: 10.5, 11.3, 11.4, 12.3, 13.2 (2013).
His contact rate is following a similar trend downward. From 2009 to now: 77.4, 77.6, 76.1, 73.0, 72.4, 71.1, 69.3. His contact rate in the strike zone (Z-Contact%) has mirrored this decline. What’s more alarming is that while his overall swing percentage has remained pretty close to his career average, his swings in the zone have risen (especially from 2014-now). He’s swinging at more pitches in the zone than ever before but making less contact in the zone than ever before.
I will note that I’ve noticed a dramatic difference between Carlos Gonzalez pre and post 2014. He was injured last year and I suppose it’s possible he’s either still hurt or not fully recovered. If you’re looking for hope he’s going to rebound that’s where you’ll find it. But I suggest you temper expectations.
Even if his poor performance last year and this year is due to injury, he was still exhibiting signs of a slow decline. If he does rebound, I don’t expect it to be a full one. It would likely be a return to the level of player he was starting to become. This could still be a solid player, but that might still make him hard to trade.
The Rockies owe Carlos Gonzalez $16 M this year, $17 M next year, and $20 M in 2017. That’s quite a bit of money. If he’s just a below average defensive corner outfielder (-3 DRS, -3.5 UZR so far this year) with a solid but not great bat he’s not going to be in high demand. The Dodgers were able to move Matt Kemp by paying a significant portion of his contract and that’s likely what the Rox would have to do as well. And remember, that’s if he rebounds.
If he doesn’t rebound the Rockies are stuck with him and his full $43 million contract. If he is hurt or gets hurt again, the Rockies might be unable to move him.
Carlos Gonzalez isn’t the player he once was and he very likely will never be again. That’s sad because he was pretty great. By not moving him sooner the Rockies missed a tremendous opportunity to restock their farm system during years in which they had no chance at making the playoffs. Now if they even can trade him they’ll have to include money and accept a less impressive package of players in return.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
