Six weeks into the 2015 season, one thing has become clear to me – the American League class of rookies kind of sucks so far. Every so often, we run across a situation like this in one of the leagues. Wil Myers won the 2013 AL award over Jose Iglesias despite playing in just 88 games. Jacob deGrom was a deserving winner in the NL last season, but didn’t get called up by the Mets until the middle of May. But hey, at least we’re past the days of Jason Jennings, Angel Berroa, and Bobby Crosby, right?
Anyway, unlike in the National League this year, the American League rookie crop is…not good. How so? Well, only 15 AL rookie hitters have as many as 40 plate appearances so far this season. Six have a wRC+ above 100, and just two are over 120 – Devon Travis of the Blue Jays, and Joey Butler of the Rays (in just 43 plate appearances). Travis, Steven Souza of the Rays, and Mark Canha of the A’s are the only AL rookies to belt as many as five homers this year, and Travis is the lone AL rookie to drive in 20 or score 20 runs (he’s done both).
On the mound, things somehow get worse. 29 AL rookies have thrown at least 10 innings, which is good. But most of those pitchers are relievers, with only seven AL starters even starting four games (and two of those guys have already been banished to the minors). Just three AL rookie pitchers have even been worth half a win this season – Trevor May of the Twins (who has a 5.15 ERA), and a pair of relievers, Toronto’s Roberto Osuna and Seattle’s Carson Smith. Nate Karns of the Rays has the lowest ERA of any rookie starter, and he’s sitting pretty at 3.77. That’s not great in the year 2015.
OAKLAND, CA – MAY 15: Carlos Rodon #55 of the Chicago White Sox pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning at O.co Coliseum on May 15, 2015 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
The 11 TOC staffers that made preseason predictions cumulatively picked four players to win the AL Rookie of the Year award: Travis, Carlos Rodon, Rusney Castillo, and Aaron Sanchez. Travis is head and shoulders above the rest of the AL rookie crop, and seems to be the odds on favorite to take home the award, despite scuffling to a .185/.241/.315 line in May. Rodon has made two starts and three relief appearances in the majors so far this year, and has a 4.96 ERA, 17 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 16 1/3 innings. Castillo has spent the entire year with AAA Pawtucket for the Red Sox, and has hit .304/.355/.449 in 17 games. Sanchez has made eight starts for the Blue Jays, pitching to a 4.17 ERA while walking more than he’s struck out. Needless to say, all of these players can do better.
Are there any AL rookies that can take the league by storm and claim the Rookie of the Year award with a strong final four months? Sure. Rodon, Castillo, and Sanchez can all step up and make waves. Sanchez has a 3.51 ERA in May, allowing just a .200/.342/.277 line (though he has walked more hitters than he’s struck out). Castillo seems to be angling for a call-up to the majors soon, given the struggles of Boston’s outfield. In ten games in the major last season, Castillo hit .333/.400/.528, and anything close to that would likely give him the AL award in a walk. As for Rodon, he’s shown flashes of brilliance in his major league career, and as long as he can cut his walk rate, he should be able to fall into a groove in the White Sox rotation.
Who else? Rays outfielder Steven Souza is an obvious option – he’s hitting .231/.331/.410, is getting regular playing time, and will likely finish the season with double digit homers and steals. Yeah, the 36.4% strikeout rate is suboptimal, but given his overall production level, that’s no reason for Kevin Cash to stop penciling his name into the lineup every day.
Rangers outfielder Delino Deshields Jr is another guy getting playing time and making the most of it, hitting .268/.379/.375 with ten steals over 25 games. He could earn some votes like Billy Hamilton did last year in the NL if he keeps up this pace, but the voters haven’t been too kind to players of his skill set in recent years. Remember Willy Taveras? Exactly.
NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 27: Nathan Karns #51 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the New York Yankees during their game at Yankee Stadium on April 27, 2015 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
On the hill, the best option aside from Rodon is Karns. He’s struck out nearly a hitter per inning, and given Tampa Bay’s rotation injury woes, he won’t be losing his spot any time soon. He’s also pitched much better in May, allowing a 2.12 ERA, 19 strikeouts, and five walks over 17 innings to go along with a .203/.261/.250 line. If he makes 30 starts, strikes out a batter or more per inning, and has an ERA somewhere in the 3’s, he could easily end up winning the award.
In the minors, there are several players that could end up with a strong half year in the majors to bring home the award. 20-year old Astros wunderkind Carlos Correa torched AA to the tune of a .385/.459/.729 line with seven homers and 15 steals in 29 games, and has held his own over seven games at AAA since his callup. I could easily see him getting the call to the majors sometime in the next few weeks, and help carry a young Astros team to the Postseason. The narrative could help outweigh his lack of playing time, as much as I hate to admit it.
Indians shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor isn’t expected to get the call soon, but if he does, he could easily have a positive effect on the Tribe, both offensively and defensively. I don’t know if he would be able to do enough to win the Rookie of the Year, but you never know how much the voters could value defense.
I don’t think the Twins uber-prospect duo of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will get called up for significant playing time this season. Both are back in AA after essentially lost years in 2014, and there’s no need for Minnesota to rush them to the majors.
So while the pack of AL rookies has disappointed so far, there are plenty of reasons to think the group will take a collective u-turn soon. And if the group doesn’t? Oh well. Every Rookie of the Year isn’t a future star.
