The Toronto Blue Jays rotation is starting to take form after the club announced the signing of J.A. Happ last week to a three-year, $36 million deal. There hasn’t been an official announcement, but the move probably takes Toronto out of the David Price sweepstakes. The team has been proactive in free agency to bolster their rotation, and here’s how it’s shaping up.
Marcus Stroman enters the season as the club’s de facto ace. By now we all know the miraculous comeback story the 24-year-old made in 2015 after tearing his ACL. He was brilliant in four late-season starts and pitched solidly in three Postseason games. The generously listed 5’9″ righty has ace stuff, with a mid-90’s four-seam fastball and multiple off-speed offerings. The question isn’t confidence, but is he ready to assume the mantle? As impressive as his comeback was, he’s still fresh off the injury and throwing him into the fire could burn the club. But, if anybody can defy injury logic, it’s him. As of now, for the Blue Jays to succeed, Stroman needs to pitch a full season.
My man #JAHapp back with the boys. We love it! @BlueJays
— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) November 28, 2015
Toronto took a small gamble when it agreed to a two-year, $26 million contract with Marco Estrada. The righty stunned in 2015 after low expectations were placed on him following his acquisition from the Milwaukee Brewers. He ended up winning 13 games, and doing so in fine fashion with a slightly below average 2.38 SO/B. Armed with an excellent changeup, Estrada worked wonders with catcher Dioner Navarro. Per Fangraphs, he used his cutter a career high 8.4% of the time while throwing a career-low of curveballs (11.0%). Everything clicked for him, but it’s hard to believe he can replicate the success. He continued to give up far too many home runs (24) and his 4.40 FIP suggested his dazzling 3.13 ERA was misleading. Navarro also may leave in free agency. At the price and term the Blue Jays signed him to, he can still live up to the contract even if he regresses, but it will be fascinating to see if he can repeat 2015.
R.A. Dickey had another typical season by his standards. He posted an 11-11 record, another sub-four ERA (3.91), and ate over 200 innings (214.1). That’s about as good as it gets for the 41-year-old. His knuckleball doesn’t dance like it used to, but the soft-thrower still uses it 87.0% of the time per Fangraphs. It’s his bread and butter. He’ll occasionally mix in fastballs, but if you’re facing old man Dickey expect a knuckler. Exercising his $12 million club option was an easy decision. He makes for an excellent middle of the pack starter, but his ace days are long-gone, and that’s fine. The club doesn’t have that expectation like they did following his acquisition. He’ll throw a ton of innings and do an adequate job doing so – and who doesn’t want that?
Handing Happ $12 million per season on average is a risky proposition given his track record, but the Blue Jays were in desperate need of a middle of the pack innings eater, and that’s sadly the cost of acquiring one.
.@BlueJays have signed LHP J.A. Happ to a 3-year deal worth $36 million (US). Welcome back, J.A.! pic.twitter.com/zAfaBSBgtZ
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) November 28, 2015
Re-signing the 33-year-old took Toronto fans by surprise. He’ll likely pencil in as the third or fourth starter, and he joins a rotation that’s stocked full with those types. There’s no way he’ll repeat his success in Pittsburgh, where he put up a 7-2 record in 11 starts with outstanding peripheral numbers, but there’s reason to believe Happ isn’t the same guy he was when he last pitched for the Blue Jays in 2014. The Toronto Star reported he made adjustments which contributed to his turnaround.
Working with Pittsburgh’s famed pitching coach Ray Searage, Happ said he made a slight mechanical adjustment — correcting his arm angle more towards home plate — and tried not to overthink his approach by trusting his fastball and, in his words, staying out of his own way.
While Happ’s no replacement for Price, he’s a much-needed lefty to bring some foil to the rotation.
The fifth starter battle features a ton of candidates.
The team traded an excellent reliever in Liam Hendricks to acquire Jesse Chavez from the Oakland A’s, and he’ll get one of the first cracks at the spot. He’s made 45 starts in the last two seasons, and has done an OK job with them – in a perfect world he projects as a spot-starter who’s probably best as the team’s long reliever.
SP who had equal or less WAR than Jesse Chavez in '15: Michael Wacha, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, James Shields, Ian Kennedy and Marco Estrada
— BLUEJAYS HOTSTOVE (@bluejayhotstove) November 21, 2015
Drew Hutchison won 13 games in 2015, but he shouldn’t be a lock to start. The 25-year-old posted a horrific 5.57 ERA, with a 1.483 WHIP, and a 4.42 FIP, while his SO/9 dropped from 9.0 to 7.7. He was simply too hittable. I’d give him the inside track should he remain on the roster, but he was one of the biggest disappointments last year, and nothing is guaranteed.
Aaron Sanchez started 2015 in the rotation, but after walking 37 batters in just 66.0 innings, he was moved to the pen where his control issues subsided. If the 23-year-old can harness his wildness, he’s got a chance, but the Blue Jays may be best served keeping him in the pen. Roberto Osuna doesn’t have the control issues that Sanchez did, but I’d give him another opportunity to close since he did such an excellent job in 2015.
The Blue Jays are still on the hunt for free agent starters, so nothing is set in stone. While Price probably isn’t returning, the rotation is slowly falling into place. Unless one of the youngers is ready to assume the ace mantle, this team is in desperate need of a frontline starter – because right now, there are a lot of the same good, not great pitchers. If Stroman can assume that role, the club’s positioned well, but if he flounders – this rotation could be very, very average.
