On Thursday night, the Atlanta Braves acquired Trevor Cahill and a wheelbarrow full of cash from the Diamondbacks for stalled minor leaguer Josh Elander. Atlanta will only cover roughly $5.5 million of the $12 million that Cahill is owed in 2015, and will also be on the hook for the buyout of his 2016 club option (unless of course, the Braves exercise that $13 million option for whatever reason). The move was met with a collective shrug of the shoulders from Braves fans – Cahill isn’t suddenly going to turn the Braves into a contender, but considering that Atlanta was facing the possibility of starting both Wandy Rodriguez and Eric Stults in their rotation, his acquisition is an upgrade.
The Diamondbacks acquired Cahill (and his then team-friendly contract) from the Athletics before the 2012 season for Ryan Cook, Colin Cowgill, and Jarrod Parker. Cowgill lasted just a year in Oakland before being moved, and has settled in as a fourth outfielder since. Parker made 61 starts over two years with the A’s, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 378 1/3 innings, but missed all of the 2014 season recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Cook has been a staple in the Athletics bullpen over the last three seasons, notching a 2.60 ERA over 190 2/3 innings while striking out 197.
Meanwhile, Cahill was hot and cold in the desert. He peaked in 2012, throwing 200 innings of 3.78 ERA baseball for the Snakes. In 2013, Cahill missed a month and a half with a hip contusion, and only threw 146 2/3 innings with a 3.99 ERA. 2014 was a complete disaster for him – he made just 17 starts and 15 relief appearances in the majors, pitching to an unsightly 5.61 ERA in 110 2/3 innings. Arizona DFAed him in June, and when no one bit on acquiring him, demoted him to the minors for a month. Cahill’s peripherals were better once he returned (3.74 FIP, 3.78 xFIP in the second half compared to a 4.15 FIP, 3.91 xFIP in the first half), but his overall performance was still disappointing (5.58 ERA in the second half compared to a 5.66 ERA in the first half).
And here we are now. Heading into his seventh year in the majors, Cahill is at a crossroads. He had a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 2:1 in just one of those six seasons. He’s made 30 starts four times and thrown 200 innings twice, but hasn’t done either in the last two seasons. His career ERA+ is exactly 100, but he’s been below average in four out of six seasons. Cahill’s 2010 season, in which he made the All-Star Team and finished ninth in the AL Cy Young voting, is a distant memory at this point. He allowed a .236 BABIP in 2010, and hasn’t been within 50 points of that mark in any of the four seasons since. His walk rate has never been lower than it was in that 2010 season, and oddly enough, his strikeout rate has never fallen as low as it did in that year.
So what do the Braves have with Cahill? I’m not sure I know, and I’m not sure the Braves really know either. Atlanta went through the whole “low strikeout, high walk, high ground ball” phase a few years ago with Derek Lowe, and it didn’t end very well for them despite Lowe continuing to put together solid peripherals. Could Cahill have a season that brings up memories of Tim Hudson near the end of his tenure in Atlanta? It’s certainly possible. Both relied on sinkers to get oodles of ground balls, and both also had success with cutters. Neither pitcher really struck out many hitters, and neither walked all that many either. It’s not a perfect comparison, but it works.
Atlanta’s infield defense is a bit shaky outside of all-world defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons however, and that could turn some of those ground balls into hits. But hey, it’s not as if Cahill had four Gold Glovers in the infield behind him in Arizona. Call it a wash, with the possibility for Cahill to actually have a better defense behind him with the Braves if rookie Jace Peterson takes well to second base. Cahill will also likely be dealing with a question mark behind the plate in rookie Christian Bethancourt or a defensive slug in veteran A.J. Pierzynski. With the Diamondbacks, Cahill had the pleasure of throwing to Miguel Montero, a solid pitch framer and blocker, every fifth day. Losing a couple of extra strikes or having an extra ball or two squirt through to the backstop could result in negative consequences for Cahill.
So all in all, what do the Braves have here? They could have done a lot worse than Cahill to fill a rotation spot. The now-released Wandy Rodriguez made just 18 starts over the past two seasons with the Pirates, and had a 4.53 ERA over 89 1/3 innings. While Rodriguez did have a good spring, his age and history are pretty strong indicators that he was going to struggle if given a full-time job in the majors this year. At least Cahill is young enough (just 27) and showed enough promise in his career thusfar to give Atlanta some hope at him rebounding and putting together a solid year in 2015. And hey, maybe Cahill will somehow pitch well enough to earn some interest from other teams in July, allowing Atlanta to move him and pick up a minor leaguer or two.
And if you think that’s crazy, just remember that the Phillies managed to trade Roberto Hernandez (who had 75 strikeouts and 55 walks over 121 innings at the time of the deal) to the Dodgers last August for a pair of prospects under the age of 21. Never say never – someone may just be crazy or desperate enough to surprise you.
