Following Wednesday’s trade of Evan Gattis to the Houston Astros, the Atlanta Braves have one real commodity left to trade – closer Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball (though I guess you could make an argument for Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen), and is signed for $34.75 million over the next three seasons (a total that can rise to $46.75 million if a 2018 club option is exercised). The fanbase seems split on what to do – some fail to realize that a 60 inning closer doesn’t have much value or use to a team that will probably lose 90 games, while others are fully in favor of dealing him to a new club.
However, trading Craig Kimbrel isn’t as simple as trading Gattis was. While Kimbrel is an excellent player signed for what appears to be a reasonable amount of money, there simply aren’t that many great fits out there. For example, the Detroit Tigers obviously need bullpen help. But their farm system is so depleted that it would be impossible for the Braves to get much of a prospect return for him. The same situation is true in the case of the Milwaukee Brewers – a team that needs bullpen help, but simply can’t offer the prospects Atlanta would require.
So, who does have a need in relief while also possessing a deep enough farm system to get the Braves excited? Well…there aren’t really many.
Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have a fantastic closer in Koji Uehara, but he’ll be 40 before Opening Day and is signed just through 2016. Boston also has top-tier prospects coming out of every orifice, seemingly making a trade much easier to complete. But then again, Ben Cherrington wasn’t exactly chomping at the bit to trade some of that prospect depth for Cole Hamels, a better player than Kimbrel that would have more of an impact on the Red Sox in 2015 and beyond.
Chicago Cubs. Like the Red Sox, the Cubs have a plethora of prospects. Unlike the Red Sox, the Cubs don’t have an established presence in the ninth inning – their current closer is Hector Rondon, a 26-year old who took to the closer’s role like a fish to water last year. Besides, trading for a player like Kimbrel would put the Cubs into “win now” mode, and I don’t think they’re there quite yet. Maybe next winter, if Kimbrel is still a Brave and the Cubs made some noise in the NL Central in 2015, a link between the two teams would be more practical.
Texas Rangers. This possibility intrigues me. The Rangers have plenty of young talent on the farm, and could be in line for a shockingly good 2015 if the health of Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder holds up. But then again, imagine the Rangers trading for Kimbrel, and then having just one starter throw as many as 150 innings like last season. Texas would probably be in “wait and see” mode when it comes to any major acquisitions.
Toronto Blue Jays. Solid farm, built to contend now, has a need at the closer position. Simply tantalizing.
Clubs like the White Sox and Yankees filled their bullpen needs through free agency. Besides, I doubt the White Sox would have the goods to acquire Kimbrel, especially after the Jeff Samardzija trade.
And in a nutshell, that’s why trading Craig Kimbrel, which seems so simple on the surface, is really quite difficult. Atlanta isn’t going to trade him for the sake of trading him – they need a good return for him. Most of the clubs that truly need Kimbrel can’t give the Braves what they would require in return, and most of the clubs that can give Atlanta what they would want have more pressing needs than a closer.
Therein lies John Hart’s dilemma – if Kimbrel ends up getting hurt sometime over the next two seasons (not a stretch, given how hard he throws and the uptick in Tommy John surgeries among pitchers), his trade value goes into the tank and Hart will be left with nothing. If Hart trades Kimbrel for 40 cents on the dollar and he stays healthy, pitching like he has over the past three seasons, the Braves will get smashed in the court of public opinion for engaging in a fire sale prior to the opening of SunTrust Park in 2017.
It’s an absolutely impossible situation, and that’s why I think that if a Kimbrel trade happens, it’ll be in July. Teams with the prospect depth to acquire Kimbrel will know a lot better at the All-Star Break whether or not a closer is the missing link between them and a World Championship. As long as he’s healthy and productive, Kimbrel’s trade value won’t have changed all that much six months from today. If a team like the Cubs or Red Sox is fighting for a playoff spot and desperately needs a bullpen, maybe they move some of their young talent to Atlanta at the trade deadline, and John Hart’s dream of Kimbrel closing out a World Series win comes to fruition – just with a different club.
