By most accounts, the Atlanta Braves’ start to the 2015 season is a shocker. Projected to finish fourth in the NL East this season, the Braves sit in second place through 12 games at 8-4, a game and a half behind the New York Mets and 2.5 games clear of the struggling Washington Nationals. The Braves offense has been better than expected this season, while their defense has been fine (powered by the wonderful Andrelton Simmons) and the starting rotation has been disappointing. But the key going forward for Atlanta isn’t the rotation, or the offense, or the defense – it’s the traditionally dominant Braves bullpen.
Through 12 games, the Braves bullpen has been wonderful. In 44 1/3 innings, Atlanta’s relievers have a 2.64 ERA to go along with 46 strikeouts and 16 walks. The only bullpens in baseball with a lower ERA and a higher strikeout rate? The Dodgers, Astros, and Cardinals. That’s not bad company to be in. But the Braves are succeeding in a different way from those teams. They have a pair of ex-closers in Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli assigned to the eighth and ninth innings. The Braves are also carrying four rookies in that pen, including a Rule 5 pick (Andrew McKirahan, who we’ll get to in a bit), a career minor leaguer (Sugar Ray Marimon). It’s the very definition of a bullpen that should be awful, but has been the opposite (despite a .214 BABIP that ranks as the third-lowest in baseball).
TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 19: Andrew McKirahan #52 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch in the seventh inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 19, 2015 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Naturally, there are still plenty of issues with this Atlanta bullpen. McKirahan, who Fredi Gonzalez only used three times this season, was just nailed with an 80 game PED suspension that will end the rest of his first half. Gonzalez has used four of Atlanta’s relievers (Cody Martin, Luis Avilan, Brandon Cunniff, and Johnson) seven times each for at least six innings apiece. The only team with as many as *three* relievers with at least seven appearances is the Mets, and one of their trio (Jerry Blevins) just fractured his forearm.
Throw in the fact that Grilli has been used six times for six innings, and you have all of the makings of a bullpen that could get burned out quite quickly. Of those 44 1/3 innings, 34 2/3 innings have been thrown by those five relievers. Marimon’s four innings all came in one appearance in relief of a disastrous Trevor Cahill. After three days off, he threw two pitches in Toronto on Saturday and allowed a walk off homer to Josh Donaldson. McKirahan retired five in a row against the Mets last week (but did allow the game-losing sac fly after he walked into a Juan Jaime-started mess), closed out the Cahill/Marimon disaster, then got four days off before getting a pair of outs against the Blue Jays on Sunday. But that point is moot because of his suspension – he won’t be a factor again until July.
ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 11: Jim Johnson #53 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after their 5-3 win over the New York Mets during the Braves opening series at Turner Field on April 11, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
My general point is this – Atlanta’s bullpen has been great so far. There’s no denying that. But Fredi Gonzalez is relying too much on his best relievers. And while some of the blame should fall on Gonzalez for that, some of that blame also needs to be put on John Hart and Atlanta’s starting rotation. The Braves starters have thrown 63 2/3 innings this year over 12 games, an average of just shy of 5 1/3 innings per game. That’s not going to cut it. The only teams averaging fewer innings per outing from their starters this year are the Marlins, Rangers, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Indians. No Braves starter has finished the seventh inning all season, though Alex Wood has come within an out in each of his last two starts. When your starters can’t go deep into games, you’re going to need to either use more relievers, or use relievers for longer periods of time. Gonzalez has mixed and matched with each of those philosophies, but that’ll eventually start burning relievers out.
Hart put Gonzalez in that situation by not having much of a plan for the rotation once Mike Minor went down with a shoulder injury. He ended up acquiring Trevor Cahill from the Diamondbacks, and Cahill retired just seven batters in his first start of the year last week. Fifth starter Eric Stults has thrown five innings in both of his starts. With those two going back to back in the rotation, like they did last week in losses to the Marlins, you’re looking at a situation where the bullpen will get taxed in back to back days. Last week in those two starts, the Braves bullpen was forced to throw 11 2/3 innings over those two games, which ended up burning four relievers on multi-inning outings. The Braves got lucky with a day off on Thursday, but they won’t be so lucky over the next two weeks – Cahill and Stults are penciled in for seven starts between them before Atlanta’s next off day.
ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 14: Sugar Ray Marimon #54 of the Atlanta Braves leave the mound in the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at Turner Field on April 14, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
After spilling all of these silly words about the Braves bullpen, I’ve been able to come to one conclusion – there’s no easy fix. I’ve dragged Fredi Gonzalez through the coals plenty of times in the past before, but he’s in an unwinnable situation right now. If Gonzalez keeps going back to the well with Martin, Johnson, and Grilli, his three best relievers, he’ll end up getting burned with either injury or regression sooner rather than later. If he tries to use lesser used relievers like Marimon or the departed McKirahan more often, there’s a chance he’ll end up getting burned because neither is a quality option…just like he did on Saturday in Toronto. If he tries to use relievers like Martin or Avilan on a multi-inning basis with regularity, he risks having them unavailable on the next day when he may need them in a more crucial situation.
But quite frankly, there’s one thing that simply *needs* to happen for the Braves – they need more innings from their starting pitchers, and they need more innings from their starting pitching as soon as possible. Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller need to throw fewer pitches and start pitching into the sixth and seventh innings with more regularity. Eric Stults and Trevor Cahill need to throw fewer pitches and quite frankly, pitch better. Alex Wood needs to simply be better – 21 hits, 11 walks, and eight strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings isn’t going to cut it. Atlanta isn’t doomed quite yet, but if we’re heading into June with all of their top relievers facing 25+ innings and appearances apiece, it could be a long summer for the Braves.
