The World Series ended on Sunday and the moment it did, all pending free agents officially became untethered from their previous clubs. However they do still have to wait until Friday November 6th – five days after the end of the World Series – before they’re allowed to negotiate with other teams. That won’t matter though, as many free agents wait to sign until the Winter Meetings in December. Clubs will have plenty of time to identify their targets and as is the case every year, several teams will walk away with a bargain.
Bargain buys are usually players coming off of bad seasons or returning from injuries. Sometimes though you’ll also find a bargain in a younger player that has a breakout season. Sometimes you’ll also see a club get a deal on a player who is undervalued, though that happens less in this era of video and statistical analysis. Here are a few players I think could represent a bargain buy for potential suitors.
Marco Estrada
Marco Estrada raised his profile in the Postseason, making three starts with a 2.33 ERA and 3.08 FIP. During the regular season he pitched from the pen and the rotation for a 3.13 ERA. But his career track record is less impressive. He actually struggled quite a lot last year with the Brewers, leading baseball in home runs allowed. Despite that, he has displayed a keen ability to get strike outs despite his below average velocity. He has also shown an ability to pitch both out of the bullpen and in the rotation. That makes him a versatile option that fits any club. I think he could be had on a two-year deal in the range of $18-22 million. Even for a back-end starter in this era that’s not a bad price. The upside is a 3/4 starter. If he can hit that peak, he’s a steal at $11 M AAV.
Cliff Lee
Cliff Lee was once one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He’s since suffered a serious injury – a torn flexor tendon. He opted not to have surgery so it’s possible, if not likely, Lee could decide to retire at the age of 37. However should he decide to give it one more go, it’s very likely he can be signed for an incentive-laden one-year deal. Deals like these often include a small base salary that is guaranteed and bonuses that trigger after innings pitched and game appearances made. This mitigates risk for the club signing a player coming off an injury or with a long injury history. While Cliff Lee was active and pitching, even in 2014 when dealing with injuries, he remained effective. If he can buck the odds and pitch even half a season he could be a difference maker and it might not cost a team more than $8-10 million.
Dae-ho Lee
Dae-ho Lee is a Korean first baseman. He spent the last four years playing in Japan. He’s been a consistently effective offensive player throughout his career in both the KBO and NPB. But it’s hard to know how well those numbers will translate to MLB. It is encouraging to see him have success in NPB as we’ve seen more position players make that transition than we have those from KBO – Jung-ho Kang is the really the only example. For this reason, the fact that he’s already 33 years old, and limited to first base it’s almost guaranteed Dae-ho Lee will not command much money on the open market. Nori Aoki excelled in NPB for years and he only got a two-year $2.5 M contract with a club option at $1.5 M from the Brewers, though he was put through the posting system whereas Lee is a free agent. Still it seems unlikely he’ll get more than two years guaranteed and I doubt he exceeds $5 M annual average value. He represents a risk because it’s unknown how his production will translate to MLB but for the cost of a middle reliever or good bench player the upside is enough to make him an interesting option and potential bargain.
Jonathan Broxton
Jonathan Broxton had a pretty ugly season with the Milwaukee Brewers. In 36.2 IP he was tagged for a 5.89 ERA. But if you look closely, he might have just been a bit unlucky. Some of his peripherals remained strong – notably, an 9.08 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 – as did his average fastball velocity – 94.3 mph. One thing that sticks out is his uncharacteristically high BABIP of .343. This all seems to account for his much lower 3.71 FIP while with the Brewers. Then in 23.1 IP with the Cardinals he saw improved success, pitching to a 2.66 ERA, 3.56 FIP. Viewed this way, Broxton still offers teams a competent reliever and possible one still capable of high leverage innings. However it’s unlikely he gets paid as such. I’m thinking more than two guaranteed years around $3-4 M AAV. That’s not bad when you look back and see a guy like Zach Duke got three years and $15 M just last year.
PHOENIX, AZ – SEPTEMBER 08: Alejandro De Aza #45 of the San Francisco Giants bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the MLB game at Chase Field on September 8, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Giants defeated the Diamondbacks 6-2. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Alejandro De Aza
Quite frankly, Alejandro De Aza doesn’t do a whole lot of stuff great. He’s not really capable of handling center field anymore and he’s just average in the corners. His offense is more line drive oriented and he doesn’t exactly have double digit stolen base speed. But he does have a career .331 OBP, which is decent. And his offense hovers around league average – 101 wRC+ for his career. He’s a quietly consistent performer and that’s valuable even if that performance is right around league average. He’s going to come a good deal cheaper than guys like Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. They’ll give you twice the value (at least) but it’s probably going to come at more than twice the cost. If a team doesn’t need that type of guy, if they just need someone better than replacement level then De Aza is the guy I’d target. He can probably be had for a two or three year deal at $7-8 M AAV.
Brandon Morrow
I keep wanting to believe in Brandon Morrow’s comeback but maybe it’s time to give it up. At certain points in his career, he showed elite strikeout ability. But injuries have wrecked him in recent years. Most recently he signed a one-year $2.5 million contract with the Padres that included incentives. However he only made five starts, totaling 33.0 IP. He did do well in those innings, notching a 2.73 ERA and 3.56 FIP. But he ended up needing shoulder surgery, which is bad news for pitchers and in a completely different realm from elbow surgery. It’s extraordinarily unlikely Morrow can get a deal better than the one he signed with the Padres and it’s entirely possible he has to sign a minor league deal. If that’s the case, he’ll be very cheap. If he could make a return to the majors, I still want to believe it’s possible he could be an effective starter. For the kind of money he’ll get, even if he’s a 4/5 starter, he’ll likely provide surplus value.
Burke Badenhop
Burke Badenhop isn’t the most effective reliever on the market, but he does have one of the more extreme ground ball profiles. His career ground ball rate is 54.4 % and his best mark was 61.0% back in 2014. For comparison, the league average ground ball rate for a reliever in 2015 was 45.5%. The most Badenhop has made in his career was $2.5 million this year. It’s likely he won’t be getting much more if he gets more at all. His skill set doesn’t tend to get paid well in free agency. But his high rate of ground balls makes him a very specialized reliever and a team that gets him and uses him correctly could find themselves with a lot more value than they pay for.
Ryan Madson
If you want to talk about injuries derailing a career, Ryan Madson is a tragically perfect example. He didn’t pitch at all between 2012 and 2014 because of injuries. His career up until that point was incredibly impressive too. He was forced to sign a minor league deal in 2015 that only guaranteed $200,000 and another $850K if he made the major league roster – which he did. Then he went out and had an excellent season – 68 IP, 2.13 ERA, 3.09 FIP is nothing to sneeze at. However the lengthy injury history and the fact that he’s 35 is going to severely limit his earing ability. I’d be somewhat surprised to see him get more than one guaranteed year and more than $3 million. An option year and incentives could raise that amount. But it looks like he’s healthy again and he could have another strong year left in him.
