The MLB Draft is today, and expectations are high for some fanbases, hoping their team drafts the next Bryce Harper or Buster Posey with a high draft pick. And while having a high draft pick usually works out pretty well for a team, it’s not a lock. Last week, we looked at the five worst top overall picks in the MLB Draft over the past 20 years to show how much of a crapshoot the Draft really is.
Today, we’re being positive for once. What stars of today were drafted high? We decided to look at each of the first 15 overall picks over the last 15 years, from #1 to #15 from the 2000 Draft to last year’s (largely irrelevant in this context) 2014 Draft. Who was the best #1 overall pick? How about the best player taken at #8? We’ve got you covered.
Best #1 overall pick: David Price, Rays (2007). You can quibble about whether or not Price should be the pick here. Hell, it’s an arbitrary list. But I’d argue that Price is one of two players (the second of which you’ll see later) that helped turn the Tampa Bay Rays into a legitimate franchise as opposed to the doormat of the AL East. Price won the 2012 AL Cy Young award with Tampa Bay, made four All-Star teams, and even resulted in the team getting a sizable bounty from the Tigers at last year’s trade deadline.
The other candidates for the top first overall pick all have some sort of flaw. Adrian Gonzalez didn’t even suit up for the Marlins before being dealt to the Rangers (and later, the Padres…and Red Sox…and Dodgers). Joe Mauer is the face of the Twins, a six-time All-Star, and the 2009 AL MVP, but injuries and his mammoth contract have turned some Twins fans against him in recent years. Justin Upton was a top-tier player in Arizona, but his lack of consistency has resulted in a pair of trades since he was drafted. Finally, there’s Bryce Harper, who is likely going to be *the* guy in the National League sooner rather than later…as long as he can stay healthy.
Honorable mentions: Adrian Gonzalez (Marlins, 2000), Joe Mauer (Twins, 2001), Justin Upton (Diamondbacks, 2005), Bryce Harper (Nationals, 2010)
DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 18: Justin Verlander #35 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates after the Tigers won 8-1 against the New York Yankees during game four of the American League Championship Series at Comerica Park on October 18, 2012 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Best #2 overall pick: Justin Verlander, Tigers (2004). Even though Verlander hasn’t pitched this year, we can’t floss over his history with the Tigers. Verlander won the 2006 AL Rookie of the Year award just two seasons after being drafted by Detroit second overall, and proceeded to make six All-Star teams during his time with the Tigers. Verlander also won the 2011 AL MVP and Cy Young award and has led the AL in strikeouts and innings pitched three times apiece.
He didn’t have much competition at two, shocking as that may be. Melvin Upton Jr. has been stuck in a vortex of poor performance over the last two seasons, and never truly tapped into his potential with the Rays. Alex Gordon is an All-Star and one of the best players in the American League, but Verlander had already began to dominate the American League when Gordon was just breaking out. It would be tough to rationalize that choice.
Honorable mentions: Melvin Upton Jr (Rays, 2002), Alex Gordon (Royals, 2005)
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – MAY 24: Third baseman Evan Longoria #3 of the Tampa Bay Rays fields the ground out by Max Muncy #50 of the Oakland Athletics during the eighth inning of a game on May 24, 2015 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Best #3 overall pick: Evan Longoria, Rays (2006). Longoria started his career with the Rays so well that a 22 homer, .253/.320/.404 season looks like a disgrace. Longoria was the 2008 AL Rookie of the Year with Tampa Bay, won a pair of Gold Glove awards, and made three All-Star teams in his first three seasons. At 29, he’s probably the greatest Ray ever…and much of his story still needs to be written.
There wasn’t much competition with Longoria here. Eric Hosmer is a good player and is still only 25, but still hasn’t had that breakout year quite yet…but 2015 could be that season, given his hot start. Manny Machado was also in competition here, and if he can just stay healthy, he’ll be one of the best third basemen in baseball for years to come. But health is a huge caveat for Machado – we’re not talking about a couple of three-week stints on the DL for him.
Honorable mentions: Eric Hosmer (Royals, 2008), Manny Machado (Orioles, 2010)
WASHINGTON – MARCH 30: Ryan Zimmerman #11 of the Washington Nationals gets congratulated by teammates after hitting the game winning home-run in the bottom of the 9th inning during the game against the Atlanta Braves on opening day March 30, 2008 at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Nationals won 3-2. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
Best #4 overall pick: Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals, 2005). You would think the fourth overall pick would provide a solid level of talent, but you’d be wrong. Zimmerman has more than twice the WAR of any other player taken fourth overall over the last 15 years. Gavin Floyd is second, nearly 20 WAR behind him. Third? That would be Jeff Niemann, who made 97 appearances in the majors and hasn’t been in The Show since 2012. Yeesh.
But even if Zimmerman did have competition, he’d be a great choice, even with his struggles with injuries in recent years. Zimmerman was the 2006 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, won a Gold Glove in 2009, and made the NL All-Star team (for the lone time in his career) in that same season. He’s been Mr. National since his drafting, and fits right in with an obscene amount of talent taken in the first dozen picks of the 2005 Draft.
Honorable mention: Gavin Floyd (Phillies, 2001)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – APRIL 06: Buster Posey #28 of the San Francisco Giants holds the 2012 National League MVP Award during a pregame ceremony honoring him before the Giants game against the St. Louis Cardinals at AT&T Park on April 6, 2013 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Best #5 overall pick: Buster Posey (Giants, 2008). The choice here came down to three players, and was really a question of what you value most in a player. Consistency? Then your guy is Mark Teixeira, who is just three homers away this year from hitting at least 20 bombs in 12 of his first 13 seasons. Obscene talent and a ridiculous start to a career marred with controversy? Ryan Braun, come on down! Braun won the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, the 2011 NL MVP award, was named to the NL All-Star team in five straight seasons, and won five NL Silver Sluggers in a row. Of course, since a 2013 PED suspension, Braun hasn’t been the same guy while dealing with a neverending parade of injuries.
And if you favor talent, consistency, a strong peak, and RINGZ, then Buster Posey is your guy. All Posey has done in his six seasons with the Giants is win the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year, the 2012 NL MVP, and of course, three World Championships as the primary backstop for a fantastic pitching staff. It’s silly to play the “what if…” game with the MLB Draft, but what if either the Rays or Pirates, who drafted 1-2 in 2008, took Posey instead of grabbing Tim Beckham and Pedro Alvarez, respectively. Both franchises have largely been competent since then, but just imagine Posey behind the plate for either of them in 2015.
Honorable mentions: Mark Teixeira (Rangers, 2001), Ryan Braun (Brewers, 2005), Matt Wieters (Orioles, 2007)
KANSAS CITY, MO – MAY 13: Zack Greinke #23 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the game against the Cleveland Indians on May 13, 2010 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Best #6 overall pick: Zack Greinke (Royals, 2002). Remember how when talking about the fourth overall pick, I harped on how good Ryan Zimmerman was in comparison to everyone else drafted at that spot? This situation is even more true for Greinke. He’s accrued more than four times the WAR of anyone else taken at four over the last 15 years. Number two is Rocco Baldelli, who hasn’t played since a ten game stint with the Rays in 2010. Number three is Ricky Romero, the former Blue Jay starter that appeared in four games in 2013 and fell off the face of the earth. Number four is Anthony Rendon of the Nationals, who hasn’t even played in 300 career games.
Greinke dealt with anxiety issues early on in Kansas City, but has been one of baseball’s best pitchers since 2008. He won the 2009 AL Cy Young with the Royals, and was dealt to Milwaukee following the 2010 season for a bounty of players that helped Kansas City reach the World Series for the first time since 1985.
Honorable mentions: Rocco Baldelli (Rays, 2000), Ricky Romero (Blue Jays, 2005), Anthony Rendon (Nationals, 2011)
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 24: Pitcher Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers has champagne poured on him following the Dodgers’ 9-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants to win the National League West Division Championship at Dodger Stadium on September 24, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
Best #7 overall pick: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers, 2006). The bounty of talent taken at the seventh pick over the last 15 years is ridiculous. Bradley. Harvey. Minor. Alonso. Tulo. Bailey. Markakis. Fielder. The Red Sox pick at seven (for the second time in three years), and they’re hoping they end up with a player like one of those as opposed to a Matt LaPorta, Chris Smith, or Matt Harrington.
Or hell, they’ll settle for a player the caliber of Clayton Kershaw. Kerhsaw is still only 27, has been named to four NL All-Star teams, won three NL Cy Young awards (while finishing second one more time), and took home the NL MVP award last season. Yeah. He’s pretty good.
Honorable mentions: Prince Fielder (Brewers, 2002), Nick Markakis (Orioles, 2003), Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies, 2005)
CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 9: Mike Leake #44 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the third inning of the game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park on September 9, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Best #8 overall pick: Mike Leake (Reds, 2010). Guh. There hasn’t been a lot of talent taken at eight. The debate comes down to Mike Leake, Paul Maholm, Drew Stubbs, or Gordon Beckham. That’s…slim pickings. Leake has a 98 ERA+ over his career, but his competition consists of a pair of bench players and an unsigned starting pitcher that had a 4.84 ERA last season. So…Mike Leake, come on down!
(until Francisco Lindor gets called up by the Indians and steamrolls the American League)
Honorable mentions: Paul Maholm (Pirates, 2003), Drew Stubbs (Reds, 2006), Gordon Beckham (White Sox, 2008)
SURPRISE, AZ – FEBRUARY 23: John Danks of the Texas Rangers poses for a portrait on Photo Day at spring training in Surprise, Arizona, Wednesday, February 23, 2005. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Best #9 overall pick: John Danks (Rangers, 2003). Oh, the humanity. Danks never threw a pitch in the majors for the Rangers before being traded to the White Sox for Brandon McCarthy, and Chicago is more than happy with that. Before his shoulder broke down in 2012, Danks was the model of consistency for the White Sox, and even after four straight below average seasons, he still has a 100 ERA+ for his career.
The only competition Danks had? The perennially disappointing Jeff Francis, the consistently injured Mike Pelfrey, and…uh, Jarrod Parker and his 62 career starts?
Honorable mentions: Jeff Francis (Rockies, 2002), Mike Pelfrey (Mets, 2005)
ARLINGTON, TX – NOVEMBER 01: Pitcher Tim Lincecum #55 of the San Francisco Giants and teammates celebrate defeating the Texas Rangers 3-1 to win the 2010 MLB World Series at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on November 1, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Best #10 overall pick: Tim Lincecum (Giants, 2006). The Giants took Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner at ten in back to back years. That’s just wrong. Anyway, I gave the nod to Big Time Timmy Jim, despite Bumgarner’s Postseason heroics in 2014. Remember, Lincecum was also part of those three Giants World Championship teams, made four NL All-Star teams, and also won a pair of NL Cy Young awards. And while it’s not exactly Bumgarner-esque, Lincecum *did* have just a 2.43 ERA during the 2010 playoffs, going 4-1 with 43 strikeouts in 37 innings. Yeah, that’ll do.
Considering Bumgarner’s age (just 25), he’ll probably end up usurping Lincecum as the king of the tenth overall picks sooner rather than later. His dominance isn’t just confined to the playoffs.
Honorable mentions: Cameron Maybin (Tigers, 2005), Madison Bumgarner (Giants, 2007), Jason Castro (Astros, 2008)
PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 01: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates poses with his 2012 Rawlings Gold Glove award and Silver Slugger award before the opening day game against the Chicago Cubs on April 1, 2013 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Best #11 overall pick: Andrew McCutchen (Pirates, 2005). McCutchen or Scherzer, Scherzer or McCutchen…I’ll defer to the position player, but it’s close. Remember, Scherzer wasn’t nearly as dominant during his early years before turning into one of the best pitchers in baseball sometime over the past four seasons. But McCutchen? Four straight NL All-Star Games. The 2013 NL MVP award and a pair of third place finishes. Four straight 20 homer seasons, and five straight 20 steal seasons (before that streak was broken in 2014 after McCutchen stole “just” 18 bases).
Oh, and he helped turn baseball into something more than a curious novelty in Pittsburgh for the first time since the early-90s. That’ll do.
Honorable mentions: Neil Walker (Pirates, 2004), Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks, 2006)
the Oakland Athletics the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 22, 2015 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Best #12 overall pick: Jered Weaver (Angels, 2004). This is another one of those situations where the choice is a bit obvious. Weaver’s career is on the downswing, but he was pretty damn good in his prime, making three AL All-Star teams and finishing in the top five of the AL Cy Young voting three times. 2015 is also the first season of his career where Weaver has had an ERA+ less than 100 (which is league average), further pushing the “consistency” narrative.
Honorable mentions: Joe Saunders (Angels, 2002), Jay Bruce (Reds, 2005), Yasmani Grandal (Reds, 2010)
ARLINGTON, TX – JUNE 03: Chris Sale #49 of the Chicago White Sox throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on June 3, 2015 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Best #13 overall pick: Chris Sale (White Sox, 2010). Sale has appeared in just 175 games, and already has the highest career WAR of any 13th overall pick in the last 20 years. That’s pretty wild. The only player remotely close is ex-Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill, who has been putrid for the last two years in Arizona, and has only been above average in four of his 11 career seasons. The book on Sale is pretty well-known by now – three-time AL All-Star, received Cy Young votes in three straight seasons, one of the most dominant and exciting pitchers in the American League.
Honorable mentions: Casey Kotchman (Angels, 2001), Khalil Greene (Padres, 2002), Aaron Hill (Blue Jays, 2003)
ATLANTA – APRIL 5: Jason Heyward #22 of the Atlanta Braves hits a 3 run home run against the Chicago Cubs during Opening Day at Turner Field on April 5, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
Best #14 overall pick: Jason Heyward (Braves, 2007). Yeah, Jason Heyward is overrated, and overhyped, and a bust, and….he doesn’t have much competition here. Billy Butler, a DH who never really hit well enough to receive all that much widespread acclaim? Travis Snider, a platoon outfielder? Jose Fernandez is Heyward’s biggest threat, and while I love Jose as much as anyone else, he’s made 36 career starts in the majors. Let’s pump the brakes a bit, shall we? Anyway, back to Heyward, who is one of the best defensive players (at any position) in baseball, a two-time Gold Glover, a one-time NL All-Star, and the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up. Yeah, the offense hasn’t progressed like many expected, but he’s *still* just 25.
Honorable mentions: Billy Butler (Royals, 2004), Travis Snider (Blue Jays, 2006), Jose Fernandez (Marlins, 2011)
PHILADELPHIA – OCTOBER 29: Chase Utley #26 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with the World Series trophy after their 4-3 win against the Tampa Bay Rays during the continuation of game five of the 2008 MLB World Series on October 29, 2008 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Best #15 overall pick: Chase Utley (Phillies, 2000). Our saga ends with another no-brainer choice – Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, the team’s longest serving player and someone who has become a franchise icon despite not putting together video game statistics year in and year out. During his 13-year MLB career, Utley made six NL All-Star teams, received MVP votes in five seasons (three of which were top ten finishes), and won four NL Silver Sluggers at second base. Quite simply, Utley has put together a career that has seen him ascend to the heights as one of the best second basemen in baseball (and trying to argue that fact would be futile), and trying to argue that anyone but him is the best 15th overall pick of the last 15 years is just silly. Hell, the only player in the draft’s history taken 15th overall that can compare is Hall of Famer Jim Rice.
Honorable mentions: Scott Kazmir (Mets, 2002), Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks, 2004), Devin Mesoraco (Reds, 2007)
