Going into the 2015 MLB season, the most difficult division to predict seemed to be the AL East. Virtually every division had two, perhaps three teams, that could finish on top. But the AL East was the one in which no club really looked like a favorite. Each of them had a significant flaw, largely on the pitching side.
As the schedule moves into its fifth week, the five teams in the AL East have demonstrated why there was so much uncertainty about the division prior to the season. No club has emerged from the pack and the last-place team (currently the Red Sox) is only four games away from the lead. So how did the AL East get to this point? And which of these teams has the best chance to eventually separate from this cluster you-know-what? Let’s take a look.
New York Yankees
After Monday’s 3-1 loss to Toronto, the Yankees have a two-game lead over the Rays for first place. Emerging as the early leader might be the division’s most surprising development thus far. Though picking a winner seemed difficult, what most observers and experts agreed on was that it wouldn’t be the Yankees. Perhaps this is the best indication so far of the AL East’s mediocrity, but it’s not like the Yankees have just fallen into first place.
Pitching was perceived as this team’s weakness, yet the Yanks are currently third in the AL with a 3.17 team ERA. As a staff, the Yankees have held opponents to a .235 average and .643 OPS, ranking fourth in both categories. Those numbers are skewed by the outstanding performance of the bullpen. Yankees relievers have a collective 1.86 ERA, striking out 106 batters in 92 innings. In a division where no rotation is standing out, that bullpen may end up being the difference. But can the Yankees continue to lead the AL East because of how well Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances are pitching?
Getting better performance from the offense would certainly help their chances. The Yankees are hitting .242 as a team with a .738 OPS. Only two everyday players — Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury — are hitting over .250. While Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have carried the lineup early on with their power, neither batter is hitting for a high average and both appear to be cooling off after impressive starts.
TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 14: Kevin Kiermaier #39 of the Tampa Bay Rays makes a catch against the wall in the ninth inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 13, 2015 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Rays
If an AL East club is actually capable of winning the division with its pitching, perhaps the Rays are the team we should really be favoring. For this team to compete, their staff would have to be outstanding. So far, it’s been pretty close to that. Tampa Bay has a collective 3.51 ERA, limiting hitters to a .214 average and .630 OPS. More importantly, the starting rotation doesn’t have two struggling outliers like CC Sabathia and Adam Warren.
However, finding five healthy starters to fill out that rotation might be a problem. Eight pitchers have already started games for the Rays this season. Alex Cobb looked to be a potential solution for that problem, but the 27-year-old right-hander had a setback in his recovery from a forearm strain, which has increased concerns that surgery could be in his near-future. For now, Tampa Bay has shut Cobb down, hoping that rest and other therapies like platelet-rich plasma injections might enable recovery.
But will this team be able to hit? At least the Yankees have players like Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran with track records of success. Other than Evan Longoria, the Rays don’t really have a reliable run producer in their lineup. Could Kevin Kiermaier be that guy? Steven Souza might prove to be, but his numbers have declined over the past couple of weeks. Perhaps Monday’s 2-for-3 performance is the beginning of a turnaround.
Baltimore Orioles
The defending division champions took some tough offseason losses, with Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and Andrew Miller departing via free agency. The front office didn’t bring in suitable replacements for those players, but maybe that’s because general manager Dan Duquette knew his lineup could still hit and had Chris Davis and Manny Machado returning. Adam Jones is doing his best to make up for the players who left, batting .402 with a 1.104 OPS. Between him and Davis, along with hot starts from Caleb Joseph and Jimmy Paredes, Baltimore might have the best lineup in the division.
Pitching has been an issue for the Orioles, with Chris Tillman and Bud Norris putting up numbers you might want to shield your eyes from. The bullpen also needs to provide some reliable innings before Darren O’Day and Zach Britton come into the game.
However, the performance of Ubaldo Jimenez has been very encouraging. In four starts, the right-hander has a 2-1 record and 1.59 ERA, with 22 strikeouts and eight walks in 22.2 innings. Is he the ace the Orioles’ rotation need? And it’s still early, but could Jimenez emerge as the best starting pitcher in the AL East? In a division with all five teams clustered together, that could create some separation.
TORONTO, CANADA – SEPTEMBER 24: Mark Buehrle #56 of the Toronto Blue Jays during MLB game action against the Seattle Mariners on September 24, 2014 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Toronto Blue Jays
Considering I picked Toronto to win the AL East, I would argue the Blue Jays have been the most disappointing club in the division to this point. But at 13-14, the Jays are only 3.5 games out of first place. One good week could push them to the top.
It’s been no great mystery as to why this team has struggled. The lineup has been good, with new additions Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin making an impact. Yet the pitching has been, to put it kindly, suboptimal. Toronto’s 4.97 ERA is second-worst in the AL. (We’ll get to the team ranked last in that category.) Mark Buehrle and Drew Hutchison each have ERAs near or above 7.00, and R.A. Dickey isn’t that much better at 4.38. The hope was that Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris could develop into top-flight starters, but Sanchez is averaging seven walks per nine innings and Norris just got demoted to Triple-A.
The bullpen hasn’t been much better, with Miguel Castro pitching himself out of the closer role and back down to the minors. Brett Cecil has always had the strikeout stuff to thrive in the ninth inning, and he and Roberto Osuna could be an effective late-inning duo. But with the starting pitching struggling, the bullpen’s soft middle relief could get exposed on many nights. Cecil moving back to closer weakens that area even further.
Boston Red Sox
If there was a slight preseason favorite in the AL East, it was the Red Sox. (Six of our 11 writers here at The Outside Corner picked Boston.) General manager Ben Cherington landed two of the best free agent hitters in Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, and both players have performed up to expectations.
However, Ramirez suffered a sprained left shoulder — upon which he’s had surgery before — running into the wall down the left field line at Fenway Park and is currently day-to-day. Losing him would obviously be a huge blow, as he’s been Boston’s primary power source with 10 home runs, 22 RBI and a .609 slugging percentage. But perhaps this is where getting Allen Craig last year could finally pay dividends. That is, if Craig can hit above .200.
:BOSTON, MA – APRIL 18: Hanley Ramirez #13 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after he hit in to a double play in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park April 18, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
The major problem for the Red Sox has been their starting pitching. The knock against Boston throughout the spring and going into the season was the lack of a No. 1 starter. But no one has pitched like even a top-three starter at this point. The Red Sox rank last in the AL with a 5.04 team ERA, with their rotation posting a 5.73 mark. Opposing hitters are batting .262 with a .737 OPS. The bullpen has a collective 3.99 ERA, with opponents compiling a league-worst .784 OPS.
Yet no team might be a better position to help itself than the Red Sox. Boston has been attached to trade rumors involving Cole Hamels since the winter, and with the performance of the rotation, Cherington may be more motivated to get that deal done. (If the Phillies still insist on catching prospect Blake Swihart, however, that will be an obstacle as the 23-year-old has been pressed into service on Boston’s big league roster.)
Getting Hamels alone won’t give the Red Sox the edge over the competition in the AL East. They need their other starters to pitch better (Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 1.82 ERA at Triple-A, could also help) and several hitters in the lineup (Mike Napoli is batting .159, David Ortiz is at .250) have to improve significantly. But if the Red Sox stay close, the ability to add reinforcements in trade or from the minors could enable them to break through.
