The Astros’ biggest needs at the trade deadline

Raise your hand if you pegged the Houston Astros as playoff contenders before the season started. Liar! No one could have seen this coming but the Astros are in a tie for the top Wild Card spot as of this writing. They’re just two games back of the division leading Angels and seven games ahead of the third place Rangers. This puts the Astros in a position they’ve not been in for years. At this trade deadline they’re going to be buyers. Let’s take a look at what the Astros biggest needs are.

Biggest Need: Starting Pitching

A quick glance at where the Astros rotation ranks among baseball might give you the impression the rotation isn’t an issue. They currently rank 10th with a 3.97 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and a 8.6 fWAR. That ERA isn’t great but the FIP would seem to suggest some positive correction is due. But that covers every starter the Astros have put on the mound this season which is obscuring the state of their current rotation.

Right now the Astros have Dallas Keuchel, Scott Feldman, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, and Vincent Velasquez in the active rotation.

Keuchel and McCullers have been very good this season. But Feldman and McHugh both have mid-4 ERAs. McHugh’s 3.68 FIP suggests he’s pitched better than his ERA but Feldman’s doesn’t. Both Velasquez and McCullers are in their rookie seasons. One should also consider the Astros have used 11 different starters to this point.

The rotation has two concrete needs and one more abstract need. First, it needs another quality producer to stick towards the front of their starting staff. Second it just needs another body to put in it for depth as a stabilizing factor. And lastly it could benefit from a veteran presence to help a largely young rotation. “Veteran Presents” is a running joke among some circles but teams do seem to value it and I think there is some logic to having a person around who can give younger players advice.

With Velasquez and McHugh showing some promise it is possible the Astros decide they don’t need a frontline starter, but they should attempt to improve the spot currently occupied by Scott Feldman. Candidates would seem to include Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Scott Kazmir, all of whom hit free agency a year’s end.

Any one of those starters is likely to cost at least one good prospect, but Johnny Cueto is easily the most expensive. Scott Kazmir has been very excellent this year and should be the next most expensive. Jeff Samardzija looks a bit like Colin McHugh this year. His 4.08 ERA looks ugly but his 3.59 FIP suggests he’s still pitching effectively.

If you believe in Samardzija’s FIP he might be the one you want because he’s sure to be the cheapest of the three. If you’re going for a safer bet, take your pick between Cueto and Kazmir. Kazmir (2.38 ERA, 3.09 FIP) has been more effective than Cueto (2.79 ERA, 3.16 FIP) but he does have a history of being injury prone. Cueto will probably give you more innings per start and has the better track record. But again, he’s going to cost the most.

PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 17: Gerardo Parra #28 of the Milwaukee Brewers lines out scoring Adam Lind #24 in the second inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 17, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

Next biggest need: First base/outfielder/designated hitter

The Astros’ overall first base production ranks 23rd in baseball with a -0.1 fWAR. Offensively their first basemen ranks 25th in baseball with a combined 87 wRC+. Their designated hitting position has been equally terrible. It ranks 15th out of the 15 AL clubs with a -0.3 fWAR. Offensively, the DH spot has hit for a 91 wRC+ which is tied for the bottom in the AL with the Angels.

It’s really hard for a team to make the playoffs with one or two spots in the lineup giving them the worst production in baseball. The Astros really need to add a starting pitcher but one could argue it’s more important they add a potent bat to first base or at least for the DH spot.

It might be easier to upgrade the DH spot because they could theoretically upgrade any position and then just slide a bat over or simply acquire a competent bat. There have been reports the Astros are interested in acquiring an outfielder and that they’ve looked at Justin Upton and Carlos Gomez.

So we know the Astros need to upgrade their first base spot and they want to upgrade with an outfielder too. Upton and Gomez are apparently options. To them I would also add fellow Brewers Adam Lind and Gerardo Parra. The Reds’ Jay Bruce could make some sense as well however it’s been said the Astros prefer a right-handed hitter.

Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra are free agents after this season, so they’d be easier to fit into a roster. Carlos Gomez has one guaranteed year left at $9 million. Adam Lind offers a team option for next year ($8 M, with $0.5 M buyout). Jay Bruce makes $12.5 M next year and has a team option for $13 M ($1M buyout) for 2017.

The Astros have George Springer currently on the DL with a broken wrist and Evan Gattis under control for years so they might only be looking for a one year fit. They could also be looking for someone to cover center field. As far as outfielders go that would rule out Bruce. It might also rule out Gomez but he can play center field, is cheap, and has been a superstar performer the last few seasons.

Gerardo Parra can play each outfield spot as well. He’s a free agent after this year and while he is hitting very well this year he doesn’t have a track record of doing so. For those reasons he’ll be a lot less expensive than Gomez and Upton. That might make him more appealing even though he’s a left-handed hitter.

If the Astros want a RHH it’s not a perfect fit but if it’s pure offense the Astros want they might prefer to go with Adam Lind. He’s definitely been the best hitter in that group this year. Despite some back issues his bat has a history of mashing righties.

Justin Upton fits as a right handed hitter but he’s a corner outfielder only. He would depart via free agency at the end of the year so at the very least he wouldn’t create a roster logjam at the corners. He has the best power of this group and that will be his biggest selling point.

It’s pretty interesting that the Brewers could arguably have the two best bats to move at the deadline. What’s crazy is that’s not counting Carlos Gomez. Look at Gerardo Parra slugging .500! Who would’ve guessed that? Again, no one. Offensively, Adam Lind is in a tier by himself.

But that is only accounting for production in this season only. Justin Upton may have be the biggest bat when you factor in past production and therefore future potential. He’s certainly got the most power of that group, though Lind might be close.

In terms of acquisition cost Carlos Gomez will be the most expensive. Because of track record, Justin Upton may be the next most expensive. Adam Lind might cost more though. He’s having a better season and offers an extra year of control. Jay Bruce should be expensive as well because he has 2 more seasons of control left. If the Astros want to bargain shop then Gerardo Parra is their guy.

If the Astros prioritize a frontline starter like Johnny Cueto or even Scott Kazmir it will limit how much they’re willing and able to spend on a bat. That would also make acquiring a guy like Gerardo Parra more likely than a big bat like Justin Upton or Carlos Gomez.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs