If you think batting average is a good way to measure a player’s skill, then this article most likely isn’t for you. Because in this article, you’ll learn that Cleveland Indians first baseman Carlos Santana has been an above-average hitter in 2015 despite his batting average flirting with the Mendoza Line and despite him having one of the league’s lowest BABIP.
Before we get into how Santana’s succeeding without a good BABIP, we first need to understand why balls he puts in play aren’t finding any holes.
When a player has an unusually high or low BABIP that isn’t on par with his career norm, we tend to write it off as good/bad luck. But I don’t think we can do that with Santana anymore. This season has been the second-consecutive year in which Santana’s BABIP has floundered. That’s 601 balls that he’s put into play. Now, BABIP doesn’t stabilize until around 820 balls in play, but Santana is quickly approaching that. After posting a .300 BABIP in 2013, his .249 mark in 2014 and .227 mark this season could be his new norm. To put that in perspective, league average BABIP usually sits around .300. It’s .297 this season and it was .299 in 2014.
Santana’s “oh my god, can you believe it’s that low” BABIP has a lot to do with his subpar batting average, obviously. If very few of his balls he makes contact on end up as base hits, how can he expect to have a decent average?
But why are only 22% of the balls he puts in play going for hits?
For starters, Santana is hitting the most ground balls of his career. And that’s not a good thing for a slow runner like him. His ground balls are less effective than what you’d expect. League average BABIP on grounders is .239 while Santana’s is just .169. This is due to the fact that he makes relatively soft contact on a regular basis. His soft-hit percentage of 21.3% is one of the highest marks in baseball.
When Santana puts the ball in play, non-positive things usually happen. However, he’s still created 10% more runs than league average, has a .355 OBP and his wOBA is a decent .325. His insane walk rate has a lot to do with the last two. He’s one of the few players in MLB who walks more (17.9%) than he strikes out (16.4%). We also can’t forget his power. His .155 isolated power is down after posting a .196 mark in 2014, but it’s still there.
With Santana’s combination of power and his ability to get on base via the walk, it really doesn’t matter what his overall batting average or BABIP is. He’s still an extremely valuable hitter, regardless.
