Third base is kind of a weird position right now. There’s no real dominant force anymore. Sure, you have plenty of guys that are quite good, but that dominant Chipper Jones/David Wright type of guy really doesn’t exist right now. Well, maybe he doesn’t exist – there are plenty of young third basemen that look like they’re about to make The Leap into that elite level of MLB talent.
1. Anthony Rendon. Rendon could probably be the second or third best second baseman in the league if he wasn’t ranked as the best third baseman in the league. He turned 24 this past June, and was one of baseball’s all-around best players in 2014. He hit .287/.351/.473 with the Nationals, homering 21 times and stealing 17 bases (at an 85% clip!). He was a high-level defender at both second and third, though the bulk of his playing time came at the hot corner due to Ryan Zimmerman’s battles with injuries and ineffectiveness. There’s really nothing in Rendon’s game that could be considered bad or even below average – he’s already one of the best third basemen in the game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he made a run at the NL MVP award in 2015.
2. Adrian Beltre. Beltre will be 36 in April, but he just keeps on ticking at third base for the Texas Rangers. In his four years with Texas, Beltre hasn’t dipped below the five win mark. He only hit 19 homers in 2014, his lowest total since 2005, his first year with Seattle, but he balanced that out with a .388 OBP, his highest since 2004. And even though Beltre is aging, he’s still an above average defender at third. He’s obviously not as good as he was during his prime years, but that’s merely bumping him from the top of the class into the top five or ten. I can’t, in any good sense, drop Beltre much further than this until his on-field performance warrants that sort of drop.
3. Josh Donaldson. This might be a little low, but I’ve got some concerns about Donaldson going forward. His ISO, walk rate, and strikeout rate stayed largely consistent from 2013 to 2014, but a 55 point BABIP drop lead to his triple slash cratering. Normally that’s not a huge deal, but we’re looking at a pretty small major league sample with Donaldson. Is he one of those players that consistently maintains a high BABIP? Or is he one of those players that consistently maintains a low BABIP? With a high BABIP and his skillset, which includes fantastic defense, he’s an MVP candidate. With a low BABIP and his skillset, he’s merely a pretty damn good player. At 29, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see Donaldson somehow get better, and I’m very curious as to what type of year he has in 2015 with a new team.
ANAHEIM, CA – APRIL 01: Kyle Seager #15 of the Seattle Mariners throws to first base against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 1, 2014 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
4. Kyle Seager. Seager is such an underrated player, and he’s gotten better and better in each of his three years in the majors. Things hit a peak in 2014, when Seager hit .268/.334/.454 with 25 homers. He also posted above average defensive numbers for the first year in his career, possibly suggesting that the light bulb has turned on in regards to his defense (or it’s just a one year spike that will disappear in 2015). Seager’s also been healthy over the past three seasons, missing a total of 12 games, and that gives him an edge over some of the other players on the list. The Mariners went all-in on him with a seven-year extension this winter, and he’s another guy that could make The Leap into MVP candidacy this season.
5. Evan Longoria. At 29, Longoria isn’t washed up by any means. And while he’s stayed healthy over the past two years after missing significant time in both 2011 and 2012, his 2014 season marked one of the worst seasons of his career. His offensive numbers were pedestrian, as Tampa Bay’s cornerstone player hit just .253/.320/.404 with 22 homers. He cut his strikeout rate, but also walked at the lowest rate of his career. His defense was the worst it’s ever been over his career. Yet, despite all of those negative signs, you can’t completely write Longoria off. He’s just a year removed from an MVP caliber 2013. He was one of the best players in baseball when he was on the field from 2008-2011. If this is the beginning of the end for him, it marks a sharp, shocking decline that none of us could have imagined. If it’s not, he could soar back up this list next year.
6. Pablo Sandoval. Did you know that Sandoval is actually nearly a full year younger than Longoria? It’s true, even though it may feel like Sandoval has been around forever and Longoria is still a youngster. Anyway, the new Red Sox third baseman remains one of the most confounding players in baseball. Despite his sizes, he’s hit 20 homers in a season just twice in his career, none since 2011. He’s a low strikeout guy that also doesn’t walk all that much, and despite his rep of being a guy that can hit for average, he hasn’t topped the .300 mark since 2011. Defensive metrics rate him all across the board year after year. So what the hell do you have with him? A solid regular with limited upside that could have the bottom fall off on his career at any moment. I wouldn’t be too keen to pay him $95 million.
7. Chase Headley. Two years ago, Headley wasn’t just one of the best third basemen in baseball – he was one of the best players in baseball. Remember when he hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 homers and 17 steals for the Padres? Since then, he’s combined to hit 26 homers, steal 15 bases, and slash .246/.338/.387 in his age 29 and 30 seasons. Headley’s fall has been swift, and it hasn’t been pretty. But there could be a silver lining – once Headley got out of Petco Park and joined the Yankees over the summer, he began to play better. Yeah, .262/.371/.398 isn’t exactly elite, but it’s better than his previous year and a half in San Diego. Throw in Headley’s typically above average defense, and you have a solid regular – though one without all that much upside.
DENVER, CO – JULY 11: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies throws to first base for the third out of the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Coors Field on July 11, 2014 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
8. Nolan Arenado. Here’s another very interesting player going forward. Arenado will be 24 in April, and has already logged 244 major league games. He’s hit a Coors Field-inflated .277/.314/.450, and has turned in two absolutely ridiculous seasons defensively. I don’t think it’s necessarily fair to damn Arenado because of his home park, and he clearly had a better overall offensive year in 2014 than in 2013 (despite dealing with more injuries). Could he end up having a Troy Tulowitzki-esque career with the Rockies? It’s possible – the solid offensive player with fantastic defense that turns into a monster at home is a character popularized by Tulowitzki. Arenado is still quite young, and there’s plenty of room for improvement, but he could be a very interesting player going forward.
9. Todd Frazier. Frazier will turn 29 next week, and he’s just coming into his own in the majors. He’s progressively improved his overall came during his three full seasons, peaking with a 29 homer, 20 steal, .273/.336./459 output in 2014. I don’t think there’s much room for him to get any better than he was in 2014 – he had a .309 BABIP and a 17.0% HR/FB – but as long as he doesn’t regress, the Reds have a solid player at the hot corner.
10. Matt Carpenter. Oh Matt Carpenter, I don’t know what to do with you. He made his way across the diamond last winter, leaving second base to join MLB’s solid crop of third basemen after David Freese’s trade to the Angels. And after his breakout 2013, many expected another solid year for Carpeneter in 2014. He was still a good player, but wasn’t good in the way he was two years ago. Last year, Carpenter’s BABIP fell 41 points to .318, and his triple slash also fell to an interesting .272/.375/.375 mark. His ISO fell 60 points, and Carpenter left the yard just eight times while doubling only 33 times (after 55 in 2013). He balanced out an increased walk rate with an increased strikeout rate. His defense remained mediocre (but didn’t really get worse) after the position switch. My guess as to what Matt Carpenter is in the future – an on-base machine with gap power. There’s a lot of value there, but not a lot of star potential.
Honorable mentions: Manny Machado, Martin Prado, David Wright
