There are plenty of great first basemen in baseball right now. The best part is that most of these guys are young – an elder statesman like Albert Pujols isn’t even on our list, for example. And even though this had nothing to do with our rankings, a lot of these first basemen are pretty affordable too – Jose Abreu, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, and Carlos Santana are all signed long-term and are complete bargains. Without any further ado, here’s our list of the top ten first basemen in baseball, featuring a very familiar name at the top of the list.
1. Miguel Cabrera. Last winter’s trade of Prince Fielder enabled Cabrera to shift across the diamond, much to the pleasure of everyone in Detroit. However, Cabrera’s powers were diminished in 2014, two years after winning the AL Triple Crown. While dealing with a bone spur in his right ankle that limited his production, Cabrera looked downright human. His 25 homers were his fewest in a season since his rookie year of 2003…when he played in just 87 games with the Marlins. He hit .313/.371/.524, still incredible, but his lowest marks in batting average on OBP since 2008, his first year as a Tiger. His walk rate and strikeout rate were also his lowest and highest marks respectively since 2008. Needless to say, when a .384 wOBA and 147 wRC+ represents a down year, you’ve got a pretty damn good player on your hands. If Cabrera’s stats keep falling off though, he won’t keep his spot on this perch in 12 months.
2. Jose Abreu. The 28-year old AL Rookie of the Year was phenomenal in his first year stateside. In 145 games, Abreu launched 36 homers for the White Sox, hitting an obscene .317/.383/.581. Abreu’s power dropped dramatically in the second half, but he hit 58 points higher while increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate. In fact, even though he only homered seven times in the second half compared to 29 in the first half, he was a arguably a more valuable hitter in the second half, putting together a better wOBA and wRC+ after the midsummer classic at Target Field. The potential for Abreu with the White Sox is simply tantalizing, and with some actual competent hitters in the lineup this year, he could put together an MVP caliber year.
3. Paul Goldschmidt. After a breakout 2013, Goldschmidt took a step back in 2014, but it was hardly his fault. In fact, Goldschmidt’s .300/.396/.542 statline was nearly identical to his .302/.401/.551 line the prior year. So, what happened? Well, he got plunked in the hand at the beginning of August, and the fracture ended his season with two months left. At 27, Goldschmidt is in his prime and will look to make the Diamondbacks relevant in 2015. Having Yasmany Tomas and a healthy Mark Trumbo surrounding him in Arizona’s lineup could make that task much easier than last year, when his main protection was a declining Miguel Montero and a light hitting Martin Prado.
ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 14: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves makes contact for a double during the first inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park on September 14, 2014 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Wade/Getty Images)
4. Freddie Freeman. And then there’s Freddie Freeman, who is entering his prime but will be the lone solid contributor for a Braves team that lacks much offense at all. We’re looking at a guy that in 2013, was four points of OBP away from a .300/.400/.500 season. He’s only 25, and has four years of MLB experience under his belt with a .286/.366/.465 career line. That’s fantastic, and yet, he’s going to get nothing to hit this year on a Braves team featuring him, Nick Markakis, and uh…Chris Johnson? Jonny Gomes? Thankfully for the Braves, he’s young enough and signed for long enough where Atlanta’s likely struggles in 2015 and a couple years after that won’t put much of a dent in his prime. Regardless of all that, he’s a fantastic hitter that will likely be floating under the radar in the next couple of years.
5. Anthony Rizzo. Despite how great Rizzo was in 2014, I didn’t want to rank him any higher because of his struggles in 2012 and 2013. And that’s not a demerit on Rizzo – his 2014 *was* fantastic. But when I see a player boost his OBP by 50 points (compared to Rizzo’s 2012 and 2013 in Chicago) and his slugging by nearly 100 points, I’d like to see those improvements carry over to a second straight year before I start signing their praises too loudly. If Rizzo has a year like he did in 2013, when he launched 23 homers and hit .233/.323/.419…is he a top five first baseman? I don’t think so. But if he replicates his 2014 in 2015, is Rizzo a top three first baseman? Maybe. Thus, the cop out of me putting a 25-year old at the five spot among all first basemen after a .286/.386/.527, 32 homer season.
6. Mike Napoli. Even though he’s 33, Napoli is still trucking right along. He traded power for plate discipline in 2014, increasing his walk rate to a ridiculous 15.6% while cutting his strikeout rate from 32.4% to 26.6%. However, he only hit 17 homers compared to 23 a year earlier, and his ISO fell to .171 from .223. Overall for the year, Napoli had an interesting line of .248/.370/.419, and like many of the first basemen on this list, he missed time. Napoli’s injuries weren’t all that serious, though – a sprained ring finger that landed him on the DL for the minimum 15 days, and a sore foot that ended his season near the end of September. Napoli is now 33, entering the final year of his contract in Boston. The book on him is out at this point – lots of homers, walks, and strikeouts. His best years are probably behind him, but we’ve seen plenty of first basemen continue to play at a reasonably high level once they enter their mid-30s. Hell, Adam LaRoche is 35 and landed $25 million this offseason.
7. Brandon Belt. Belt gets a knock in our rankings after playing in just 61 games last year because of a fractured thumb and a concussion. I really can’t drop him any further in good conscience because of those injuries destroying his season, but Belt still showed flashes of his 2013 season, when he hit .289/.360/.481 with 17 homers for the Giants. Before initially breaking the thumb in May, Belt had hit .264/.317/504 with nine homers in 139 plate appearances. He was awful once he returned from the DL, but again – he was still dealing with the thumb, and had a concussion mixed up in there as well. He’s another guy that could make a jump into the top five with a healthy year.
CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 6: Carlos Santana #41 of the Cleveland Indians celebrates after hitting a solo home run during the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on September 6, 2014 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
8. Carlos Santana. Santana is one of the most frustrating players in baseball, especially for someone that doesn’t really dig deep into his statline. On the surface, Santana’s .231/.365/.427 line doesn’t stand out all that much. However, he’s continually walked at a ridiculous rate, topping out at 17.1% last year. His 113 walks nearly matched his 124 strikeouts for the season, and led all of baseball. In fact, there wasn’t even a pitcher that allowed as many walks as Santana drew. That’s pretty impressive. He also swatted 27 homers, tied for a career high. After a brutal start too the year, Santana missed nearly two weeks while recovering from a concussion. Once he came back, he smashed opposing pitchers to the tune of a .266/.384/.488 line with 21 homers in 440 plate appearances. If he can do that for the whole season in 2015, you’re looking at a superstar.
9. Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been unfairly maligned for his disastrous 2012 that led to his inclusion in the Red Sox/Dodgers blockbuster August salary dump. But in his two full seasons as a Dodger, Gonzalez has been fine, resembling the player he was in his early years as a Padre before he entered his prime years. In those two seasons, Gonzalez has hit 49 homers and slashed .284/.338/.472. That’s not really worth $21 million per year, but there’s plenty of value in that for the Dodgers.
10. Lucas Duda. Surprise! Today is Duda’s 29th birthday, and he enjoyed the finest season of his career during his age 28 season last year. With concerns about playing time gone following Ike Davis’s trade to the Pirates, Duda thrived at first base for the Mets. In 153 games, he slashed a solid .253/.349/.481 and launched 30 homers. Duda is still a flawed player, slashing 400 points lower against left-handers than right-handers, but even flawed players have value. Duda will never be a top-tier, or even a second-tier, first baseman, but a guy with his power has plenty of value. However, I’m also aware that Duda could simply go bust at any moment and play like he did in New York prior to his 2014 breakout.
Honorable mentions: Matt Adams, Chris Davis, Albert Pujols
