Despite not making the playoffs in 2013, the Nationals were heavily favored in 2014. Sure enough, they coasted through the NL East, withstanding an early challenge from the Braves, and finished with the best record in the NL. Then, the Giants eliminated them from the NLDS in four games. Once again this winter, Washington was declared the winner of the offseason, and are heavily favored in the National League. But can they make it at least to the NLCS this time around?
Depth Chart (as of 2/27)
C: Wilson Ramos
1B: Ryan Zimmerman
2B: Yunel Escobar
SS: Ian Desmond
3B: Anthony Rendon
LF: Bryce Harper
CF: Denard Span
RF: Jayson Werth
SP: Max Scherzer
SP: Stephen Strasburg
SP: Jordan Zimmermann
SP: Gio Gonzalez
SP: Doug Fister
CL: Drew Storen
New Faces: Heath Bell, Mike Carp, Yunel Escobar, Casey Janssen, Evan Meek, Joe Ross, Max Scherzer, Ian Stewart, Dan Uggla
Departures: Asdrubal Cabrera, Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler, Scott Hairston, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Mattheus, Eury Perez, Nate Schierholtz, Rafael Soriano, Steven Souza
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 16: Michael Taylor #18 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with teammates after scoring in the eighth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Nationals Park on August 16, 2014 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: Michael Taylor is expected to start the year in the outfield as Jayson Werth recovers from shoulder surgery. Taylor and fellow athletic outfielder Brian Goodwin could break through to the major league part of Washington’s depth chart if Werth and Nate McLouth both continue to struggle in their recovery from shoulder surgery.
Aside from those two, you’re not going to be seeing much from Nationals prospects this season. Their best prospects are starting pitchers, and the Nationals almost have too many (if you want to call that a thing) capable MLB starters. The Nationals aren’t going to rush A.J. Cole, Lucas Giolito, or Joe Ross when Taylor Jordan, Tanner Roark, and maybe even Blake Treinen are right there.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JUNE 10: Danny Espinosa #8 of the Washington Nationals scores on an RBI single from Jayson Werth #28 in the top of the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on June 10, 2014 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Position Battles: The only position battles going on in Nationals camp this spring are for bench and bullpen spots. And even then, the spots really aren’t that much of a challenge. Danny Espinosa still has options left, and could lose his backup middle infielder spot to Dan Uggla, Ian Stewart, or Jeff Kobernus. Tyler Moore does *not* have options left, but Mike Carp is a reasonable choice to replace him in case the club wants another lefty on the bench.
The bullpen looks pretty secure after the signing of Max Scherzer bumped Tanner Roark to the pen, and after Casey Janssen replaced Tyler Clippard as Drew Storen’s top set-up man. The only reliever I could see losing his spot is Aaron Barrett, who is still pre-arb…but is out of options. Blake Treinen, Xavier Cedeno, Evan Meek, Heath Bell, or Manny Delcarmen could push him, but I’d bet Washington just goes with Barrett and lets that be that.
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 03: Jayson Werth #28 of the Washington Nationals reacts after striking out in the fourth inning against the San Francisco Giants during Game One of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 3, 2014 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns: Jayson Werth’s shoulder surgery could result in him starting the year on the DL, which would necessitate Michael Taylor getting more playing time to start the year. You never want to hear the word “shoulder” with any player, but a right fielder? That’s not a good thing at all. Speaking of shoulders, Ryan Zimmerman’s shoulder is so show that he was forced to move across the diamond this winter to replace Adam LaRoche at first base. Zimmerman’s shoulder didn’t give him many issues in 2014, but he did miss 100 games because of a fractured thumb and a strained hamstring. The guy can’t catch a break.
Bryce Harper also spent time on the DL for the second straight year, this time because of a torn ligament in his thumb. He’s an incredibly talented player, but his aggressive style results in his share of injuries. Catcher Wilson Ramos also gets injured on seemingly a yearly basis, and he was out in 2014 because of a tight hamstring and a fractured hamate bone in his left wrist. Jose Lobaton is a decent enough caddy for him during Ramos’s inevitable time off.
The pitching staff is in decent shape. Doug Fister started 2014 on the DL because of a strained lat, but didn’t miss a start once he returned in early May. Gio Gonzalez missed a month with shoulder inflammation, but it didn’t seem to effect him in the second half of the year. Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann combined to make 66 starts. We can move along now.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – OCTOBER 07: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals celebrates as he rounds the bases on his solo home run in the seventh inning against the San Francisco Giants during Game Four of the National League Division Series at AT&T Park on October 7, 2014 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: Bryce Harper.
While Anthony Rendon is probably Washington’s best player, Harper is their most important. He’s only 22, and has logged 357 games in the majors Yet, some fans think of him as an overrated bust, despite his .272/.351/.465 line because of his issues with injuries and the fact that while he’s been a fantastic player, he’s not Mike Trout. Harper is going into his fourth major league season in 2015, and can do a lot to quiet his critics by putting together a great season.
And with fellow corner outfielder Jayson Werth limited because of his shoulder, Harper will need to produce and stay healthy so the Nationals aren’t forced to start a pair of rookies, Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin, in the outfield. The team could probably still succeed without Harper in the lineup, but having him in there for 150 games and replicating that career line would be a huge boost for this team.
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 03: Denard Span #2 of the Washington Nationals catches a fly ball hit by Joe Panik #12 of the San Francisco Giants for the second out of the first inning during Game One of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 3, 2014 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
X-Factor: Denard Span.
Fitting that this preview is going up on the 27th, because it’s Denard Span’s 31st birthday. Happy birthday, Denard! Anyway, Span had one of the best years of his career in 2014, hitting .302/.355/.416 with five homers and 31 steals while striking out at a career-low rate. But Span is now 31, and it’ll be tough for him to repeat those numbers as he ages. That stat line was influenced by a .330 BABIP, his highest mark since 2009. I wouldn’t bet on him posting a mark that high for the second straight year.
His outfield defense also declined a bit last year, and again, it’ll be tough for him to improve given his age. Span has been a remarkably consistent player throughout his career, but there’s a pretty big difference in his performance over two seasons as a National. In 2014, he was a borderline All-Star. In 2013, he was an average regular. Which Denard Span will show up in 2015?
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – SEPTEMBER 19: Shortstop Yunel Escobar #11 of the Tampa Bay Rays makes the throw to second base for the out on Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox off of the fielder’s choice by Avisail Garcia to end the top of the first inning of a game on September 19, 2014 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Key Question: Can Yunel Escobar handle second base every day?
The Nationals seemingly solved their years-long conundrum at second base by bringing in Yunel Escobar from the Rays (through the A’s) this offseason. Naturally, Escobar isn’t a sure thing at the position. In fact, there are four issues I came up with in regards to his acquisition.
The first issue is that Escobar has played a total of 164 1/3 innings at second in the majors, and they came with the Braves in 2007 (when he was just 24).
The second issue is that Escobar’s defensive numbers at short were pitiful in 2014 after being above average throughout his major league career – was 2014 just a blip on the radar, or a sign of things to come?
The third issue is that Escobar’s offensive performance has been mediocre in four of the last five seasons, and his three worst seasons all led to trades (which led to a redemption in his first full year with his new club).
The fourth issue is that he’s 32, and the prior three issues will likely be more difficult for him to handle given his age. Escobar is probably a better option at the position than Danny Espinosa and Dan Uggla, but that may not be saying all that much.
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 20: Anthony Rendon #6 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with teammates after knocking in the game-winning run in the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Nationals Park on August 20, 2014 in Washington, DC. The Nationals won the game 3-2, their ninth in a row. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario: The team finally lives up to its expectations, rolls through the regular seasons, and crushes all teams in its path on the way to the franchise’s first World Championship and DC’s first title since the Redskins beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXVI. One member of their talented rotation wins the Cy Young award, and either Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon wins the NL MVP. None of this is far-fetched at all.
Worst Case Scenario: Remember 2013? There isn’t a team in the NL East this year as good as the Braves from that season to challenge the Nationals, but the Mets and Marlins could make some noise with a little bit of luck. Imagine if one of them gets off to a hot start, and the Nationals have to play catch up again. They deal with injuries to several key players, and just can’t get into a rhythm. Finally, they lose out on the division crown in the season’s final week, and can’t even get a Wild Card slot because of strong performances by the runners up in the NL Central and NL West. This is a worst case, nightmarish scenario that would probably result in several people in Washington’s management losing their jobs.
Realistic Prediction: There are two fantastic teams in baseball this year, three or four great teams, and a whole lot of teams that can contend for a playoff spot. Washington is one of those two fantastic teams. They’ve got all the talent in place to win a championship, and no one would be shocked if they ended 2015 as World Series winners. But it’s much easier said than done, and we’ve said the same thing about the Nationals in each of the last two springs…and have seen them win one playoff game over those two years.
