2015 season preview: St. Louis Cardinals

Lack of middle relief and deer-in-the-headlights managing by Mike Matheny prevented the Cardinals from advancing to the World Series. But once again, St. Louis was one of the top clubs in the National League and will stay on that pedestal this year. General manager John Mozeliak made one of the biggest deals of the offseason, acquiring Jason Heyward (and an excellent reliever in Jordan Walden) from the Braves, filling a hole in the lineup and bringing in a potential superstar who could be the next great Cardinals player. But does this team have enough to win the NL pennant and play for another championship?

Depth Chart (as of 3/12):
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Kolten Wong
SS: Jhonny Peralta
3B: Matt Carpenter
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Jon Jay
RF: Jason Heyward
SP: Adam Wainwright
SP: Lance Lynn
SP: John Lackey
SP: Michael Wacha
SP: Carlos Martinez
CL: Trevor Rosenthal

New Faces: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Matt Belisle, Mark Reynolds

Departures: Shelby Miller, Daniel Descalso, Jason Motte, Pat Neshek, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Ellis, Justin Masterson, Shane Robinson

Impact Rookies: There’s not much room on the Cardinals’ roster for a rookie to squeeze in and make a meaningful contribution. But Marcos Gonzales will likely make a meaningful contribution at some point. The left-hander may win a spot in the starting rotation this spring, but if not, figures to be there later in the season.

Gonzales wasn’t terribly impressive in 10 appearances (five starts) last season, posting a 4.15 ERA with 21 walks and 32 hits allowed in 34.2 innings. But the 23-year-old rocketed through St. Louis’ minor league system, progressing from advanced Single-A to Triple-A, while getting a look in the majors. Overall, Gonzales went 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 123 innings. Going into 2015, he’s the Cardinals’ No. 1 prospect.

Randal Grichuk should be part of the outfield mix, though likely won’t crack the starting lineup and could begin the season in Triple-A to play more center field. Stephen Piscotty may also be a factor later in the season. Pitchers Tim Cooney and Samuel Tuivailala could get a shot when bullpen help is needed. But it’s also possible that some of these players ultimately impact the Cardinals by being included in a trade package for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.

Position Battles: The competition for the fifth starter spot appeared to be a race between Gonzales and Carlos Martinez. Martinez, 23, worked mostly as a reliever in St. Louis last year, appearing in 57 games and making seven starts. He struck out 84 batters in 89.1 innings, but allowed 90 hits and a 4.03 ERA. The Cardinals coaching staff has emphasized getting ahead in the count for Martinez to be successful. So far this spring, he appears to have gotten the message and hasn’t walked a batter in 4.2 innings.

But Jaime Garcia has been a surprise this spring, recovering from thoracic outlet surgery he underwent last July. He threw four innings in his second appearance of the spring, allowing one run and striking out five batters while throwing all four of his pitches effectively. In a close battle, the Cards might opt for Garcia’s experience in the rotation — at least to begin the season. Though the left-hander has pitched sporadically over the past three seasons due to shoulder issues, he does have 97 MLB starts on his résumé, compiling a 42-26 record, 3.50 ERA, and a rate of 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Either Martinez or Garcia will likely end up in the bullpen as a consolation prize if they don’t end up in the rotation, which should strengthen the relief corps. However, if Gonzales loses out, he’ll probably go to Triple-A, where he can maintain a starter’s workload and stand by for a call-up.

Injury Concerns: Matheny has to be most concerned with the status of his ace this spring. Adam Wainwright had arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow in late October, trimming away a small piece of cartilage. And due to an abdominal strain, he hasn’t yet pitched in a game this spring, throwing simulated innings to build up his arm and keep his pitches sharp. With about three weeks remaining before opening day, will Wainwright be ready? To no surprise, he says he will be. But at the very least, his turn in the rotation could be pushed back at the beginning of the season.

Lance Lynn is dealing with a hip flexor strain that could sideline him for at least one Grapefruit League start. But he’s expected to be ready for the regular season. He’s been extremely durable, making 33 starts and pitching 200 innings each of the past two years. Michael Wacha was limited to 19 starts last season because of a stress reaction in his right shoulder. He appears to be healthy after a full offseason of rest and recovery, but the Cards will likely proceed with caution at the outset.

Then there’s Garcia, who’s appeared in only 36 games during the past three seasons. In addition to last year’s thoracic outlet surgery, he underwent a procedure to repair his rotator cuff and labrum in 2013, irritating the front office by not being forthcoming about how his shoulder felt. With the pitching depth St. Louis has, there’s no reason to rush Garcia back, though he may feel some pressure to pitch — and pitch well — to convince the team to pick up his 2016 option.

Most Important Player: Yadier Molina
Limited to 110 games because of a torn ligament in his right thumb that required surgery, Molina had what could arguably be his career-worst season last year. He batted .282 with a .719 OPS, 21 doubles, seven home runs and 38 RBI. He’s had seasons with worse numbers in each of those categories, but the downgrade in talent and production to Tony Cruz and A.J. Pierzynski last year is a huge hurdle for the Cardinals to overcome.

Molina threw out 48 percent (21-of-44) of opposing basestealers last season, though obviously had more difficulty after his thumb injury. His 22 wild pitches and three passed balls were the best among qualifying catchers. He is simply the team’s most valuable player, the best offensive and defensive catcher in MLB when fully healthy and a perennial NL MVP candidate.

Look at how St. Louis deflated in the NLCS once Molina went down with an oblique injury in Game 2. Cruz allowed the Giants to tie the score on a wild pitch shortly after replacing Molina. He hit .200 in the series. Pierzynski hit .167. Though the Cards didn’t get blown out in any of the next three games, they lost all of them. There’s no player this team needs on the field more.

X-Factor: Kolten Wong
Wong, 24, began 2014 as the Cardinals’ starting second baseman, but the team still signed Mark Ellis as an insurance policy at second base. It turns out that was needed as Wong compiled a .225/.276/.268 slash average in April and was sent down to the minors. In Triple-A, he hit .360 with a .933 OPS in 80 plate appearances, and St. Louis had to call him back up. Wong struggled terribly in June (batting .103) but was fighting an injured shoulder, but was consistent enough offensively and defensively to keep his spot in the lineup.

However, Wong broke out in the postseason, posting a .991 OPS with three home runs and six RBI in 30 PAs. He won Game 2 of the NLCS (the one in which Molina got hurt) with a walkoff homer, establishing himself as someone who could come through in key moments, that could pick up his team when needed. Can Wong continue to be that player this season? The Cards seem to think so, as they didn’t sign a replacement for the now-retired Ellis. A productive Wong makes this a far better, much deeper lineup for opposing teams to deal with.

Key Question: Can Mike Matheny learn from his poor postseason managing?
Matheny has been tremendously successful in his three seasons as Cardinals skipper, managing his team to three consecutive postseasons, three straight championship series and a World Series appearance. The man even wrote a manifesto during the offseason. Yet I suggested that he should have been nervous that Joe Maddon was available, which spoke to how overmatched he looked in the NLCS.

Matheny stubbornly stuck to decisions, even when game situations dictated otherwise. For instance, bringing Wacha in during Game 5 because he didn’t want to use closer Trevor Rosenthal in a tied ballgame. He’d already made up his mind that he would use an uncertain Wacha before Rosenthal, no matter what happened. If last year’s postseason demonstrated anything, it’s that managers need to be flexible in the playoffs. There’s no such thing as “a seventh-inning guy” in October. You use the best reliever for the job when he’s needed most.

Is this enough to put Matheny’s job in jeopardy? Again, he’s done so well that it’s virtually unfathomable to think the front office might replace him. Matheny once again has the best team in the NL Central and will make sure the Cardinals finish that way. Sticking with decisions and rigidly keeping players in certain roles works fine in the regular season. It creates structure and consistency over 162 games. But if Matheny has another postseason during which his refusal to adjust costs his team a series, do the Cardinals have to think hard about making a change?

Best Case Scenario: Cardinals magic rubs off on Jason Heyward, lifting him to the superstar heights he could never reach in Atlanta. Flush with success and love for the St. Louis fanbase, he signs a multi-year extension that keeps him in the red-and-white for the rest of his career and makes him face-of-the-franchise material.

More importantly, the Cards are able to field a healthy five-man rotation throughout the season, as Martinez or Gonzales has a breakout year. Garcia gives them a sixth starter that can fill in for spot starts or injury (and stays healthy himself), and there’s no need to trade for an ace-caliber starting pitcher such as Cole Hamels. But Hamels could be one heck of a red button to push in case of emergency. Mozeliak would have to give up prospects he’d prefer not to, but he can make such a deal happen. St. Louis can win its division without that trade, but doing it could be the difference in competing with — and possibly surpassing — the Nationals and Dodgers for the NL pennant.

Worst Case Scenario: Heyward caves under the pressure of playing for a big free agent contract and the expectations in St. Louis, and the Cardinals regret trading two of their best young pitchers for a one-year rental. Matt Carpenter continues his downward slide from last season, while Wong and Matt Adams stall or regress in their development. Matt Holliday also further declines at age 34, making the Cards wonder what they’re stuck with for the next two seasons.

Worst of all, Wainwright struggles with injury all season, depriving the rotation of its ace, and Hamels gets traded to a different team. Martinez and Gonzales show that they’re not ready for the starting rotation. Garcia’s shoulder starts barking again, but doesn’t say anything until it’s too late, making Mozeliak want to drop him from the St. Louis arch.

Realistic Prediction: The NL Central will be the league’s most competitive division with two very good teams at the top, and three others that could compete for a wild-card spot. But the Cardinals still have the best talent throughout their lineup and pitching staff, and will finish on top. Mozeliak will probably have to make an impact deal to overtake the Nats or Dodgers in the postseason, but if St. Louis gets to the World Series, there’s no reason to think this team can’t win yet one more championship. And everyone outside of the Gateway City and Cardinals nation will pull their hair, screaming to the skies about devil magic.