2015 season preview: Seattle Mariners

For two consecutive seasons, the Seattle Mariners have made splashy free agent signings to show that they are serious about making a run in the American League West. With the signing of Robinson Cano, they paid a huge price for the prime years of a player that could fall off at any point. With the signing of Nelson Cruz, they’re hoping that whatever Cruz has left in him can finally push the team over the hump. But in the most competitive division in all of baseball, will the Mariners escape with their first playoff appearance since 2001?

Depth Chart (as of 3/4)
C: Mike Zunino
1B: Logan Morrison
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Kyle Seager
SS: Brad Miller
LF: Dustin Ackley
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: Seth Smith/Justin Ruggiano
DH: Nelson Cruz
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Hisashi Iwakuma
SP: James Paxton
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Taijuan Walker
CL: Fernando Rodney

New Faces: Nelson Cruz, J.A. Happ, Rickie Weeks, Seth Smith

Departures: Michael Saunders, Chris Young, Joe Beimel, Humberto Quintero, Chris Denorfia, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Corey Hart, Brandon Maurer

Impact Rookies: With veterans all over the field and a team built to win now, you might think that the Mariners would be without help waiting in the wings. However, the team’s top prospect, D.J. Peterson, is a corner infielder with right-handed pop that profiles as a 20-25 HR guy at the Major League level and will most likely start at either Double-A Jackson or Triple-A Tacoma. He’s blocked by Seager at third base, but with only Logan Morrison ahead of him at first, he’ll get his opportunity to come up if he continues to rake at some point, as any improvement the team can make, even if it’s incremental, will help the team down the stretch.

One look at Ketel Marte will make you think he could step in at shortstop over Brad Miller, but his arm is better suited for second base. He does have a bat that profiles up the middle as a sprayer of line drives and plenty of speed, but don’t expect him to suit up unless something disastrous happens to Cano, which, if it does, would end Seattle’s season before it started anyways. Any other rookie that makes his presence felt on the roster will be bench fodder, but Peterson playing his way onto the big league roster would be a welcome turn of events for the Mariners.

Position Battles: While J.A. Happ is penciled in as the fourth starter on the official Mariners depth chart, Roenis Elias had himself a good showing in 2014 at the back of the rotation with a sub-4 ERA and peripherals to match (sub-.300 BABIP, FIP and xFIP at the same level as his ERA). His fly ball tendencies play up at Safeco and his 10% HR rate on fly balls is likely to come down. They profile as similar pitchers, and it’s going to be a battle to see who pitches better come Spring Training that will decide this. I wouldn’t count Elias out, either. Happ has name value to an extent, as he was traded for Michael Saunders, but I don’t see either guy with a clear advantage right now.

The other battle will be at shortstop, where Brad Miller will have to fight off Chris Taylor. Taylor did very over a 47-game sample, hitting .287/.347/.346, but with a BABIP of .394 (!!!). He’s a light hitter but can square balls up from time to time, whereas Miller has a notorious light-hitting bat. Neither guy has a clear advantage in this battle either, but if Taylor can prove that the BABIP fairy can help him out again in 2015, he might get the nod over Miller.

Injury Concerns: There’s plenty to be concerned with here. And it starts with the big free agent signee. Nelson Cruz played in 159 games last year. He’s done that twice in his career. The other seasons since becoming a big league regular? 128, 108, 124, 109. That’s not a good sign for a guy who will turn 35 this year, but if his DH work sticks, he’ll be in a position where he’s at a very limited chance for injury. But old bones are old bones.

You also have to consider Robinson Cano for the list even though he’s been a sturdy player for his entire career (His 157 games last year were the least since his rookie year in 2006). Like Cruz, it’s because of his age that I’m including him here, because as durable as he’s been, guys who tend to be durable get hurt suddenly and for a long period of time. It’s a similar circumstance that I’m including Felix Hernandez here, too. He’s only 29, but the odometer already has 2,000 innings on it. Hisashi Iwakuma falls under the same umbrella because of his age, but he’s also been a durable arm.

The risk isn’t truly high for anyone on the list except for Cruz, but the title of the section IS “Injury CONCERNS,” and all four guys definitely hold an above-average level of concern due to various factors.

Most Important Player: It’s gotta be Nelson Cruz.
The one thing Mariners fans have been able to depend on in recent years is that the best players the team has don’t waver. Kyle Seager, Hernandez, Iwakuma and now Cano have steady records of being highly dependable players, but Nelson Cruz was brought on to be the player that puts the team into playoff contention. His career year last year as a 4-win player looks like an outlier compared to his 2011-2013 work that followed his 2010 season that helped the Texas Rangers to the World Series.

For this team, though, it’s important that Cruz performs at a level closer to what he did last year than anything else the team can do this year. There are a couple players that have room to break out (More on that in a minute) but Cruz has to perform this year. And more importantly for the Mariners, if he doesn’t perform this year, there’s very little chance of him performing at a high level during the other three years of his contract.

X-Factor: Taijuan Walker.
James Paxton turned into a very serviceable arm in 2014 to firm up his status as the #3 behind King Felix and Iwakuma, but Taijuan Walker is the guy in the Mariners rotation whose ceiling approaches Felix’s. Shoulder issues leading into the 2014 season halted what could have been a big year for him, but when he did show up, he was more than impressive.

In September alone he had a 1.96 ERA, including a sterling complete game against the Toronto Blue Jays where he lost a 1-0 decision. He would have been tabbed to start against the A’s in the AL Wild Card Playoff Game had Seattle not collapsed and Kansas City gone on the run they did.

The 22-year-old has everything you’d want out of a future ace, but the dream for the Mariners is to have him rise up to become a peer of the current King. If he puts in a full season and it’s like what the month of September was, then the Mariners might not need the Nelson Cruz of 2014 to show up. But he’s gotta have himself the type of year that his hype promises.

Key Question: Will the outfield be any good?
Dustin Ackley had his best full season in 2014, the best since his 96 game rookie season. Austin Jackson, however, had his worst season in 2014. Seth Smith is an absolute beast against right-handers, but will have to share time with Justin Ruggiano in a right-field platoon.

The other questions already have answers to them in the lineup: If Morrison can’t hack it at 1B, Peterson is waiting in the wings. Mike Zunino’s a top-flight pitch framer, which means even if he can’t improve his contact rate, his defensive skills make him a great player.

But the outfield is where there’s a great opportunity to grow, with Ackley and Jackson both being in their Age 28 seasons. The platoon should hide the weaknesses of Smith and Ruggiano well, but much like Cruz has to step up and play like he did last season, both Ackley and Jackson need to improve on their 2014 campaigns in order to make Seattle a surefire division title contender.

Best Case Scenario: This team is already a Wild Card contender, but if Walker arrives, he makes that rotation one of the best in baseball. If the outfield steps up a bit, it’s a no doubt 90+ win team. So the best case scenario is 25+ homers from Cruz, Seager and Zunino, 200+ innings from Felix and Iwakuma, 200+ strikeouts for Walker and 6 WAR from their outfield. If they do that, a 95-win ceiling is totally possible.

Worst Case Scenario: Those injury scenarios play out and it’s Seattle’s worst nightmare, meaning that the investment in Cruz and the small window they have to be a top-flight contender in a wide-open American League closes faster than they hoped it would open up for them.

Realistic Prediction: The injury bug will hit the team, but it won’t be a big deal. Jackson and Ackley will have good seasons, the pitching staff will be top notch and Seager and Cano will be lynchpins in the offense. Cruz will most likely hit 20 homers. This team should be right there in the Wild Card race, but an opportunity to contend for the AL West title is not out of the question. I see them as a 90-92 win team right now that will give the Angels a run for their money at the division title.