2015 season preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Six years after their last World Series appearance and seven years after they won it, the Phillies are now languishing in the basement of not just the NL East, but all of baseball. Bad contracts, a lack of minor league talent translating to the Majors and a cascade of injuries have combined to make the last few seasons in the City of Brotherly Love sad indeed. However, even with Ruben Amaro, Jr. at the helm, there’s actually a case for optimism (???) in Philadelphia this year, as a true rebuilding season is on the books for 2015. But can the big moves be made that can net the Phillies the future talent that will be part of the next NL East contender in a couple years?

Depth chart (As of 2/23)
C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Ryan Howard (Sigh…)
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Freddy Galvis
3B: Cody Asche
LF: Darin Ruf
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Domonic Brown
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Cliff Lee
SP: Aaron Harang
SP: Jerome Williams (Yep.)
SP: David Buchanan
CL: Jonathan Papelbon

New Faces: Chad Billingsley, Jordan Danks, Aaron Harang

Departures: Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd, Sean O’Sullivan, Tony Gwynn, Jr., Kyle Kendricks, Wil Nieves, Mike Adams, A.J. Burnett, Antonio Bastardo

Impact Rookies: The Phillies are going to need a lot of help this season from young players to get to a level of respectable baseball. That being said, there aren’t many to choose from right now due to the Phillies having a consistent modus operandi of drafting players with high upside that just haven’t panned out. The first player the team will probably see is Maikel Franco. Franco has a lot of pop, and while he does guess at times at the plate, there’s enough to see him as a guy who can hit 20+ homers while hitting .260 or better at the hot corner. There is some concern about him moving to first if he can’t field at the hot corner, but Ryan Howard is there so…yeah. Maybe it’ll happen anyways.

The other impact rookie will make his presence felt a little later in the season. Aaron Nola was Philadelphia’s first round pick out of LSU in 2004 and quickly made it to Double-A Reading while striking out nearly a batter an inning. He’s got a Mike Leake comp on him but his stuff plays better, so he could be a solid back-of-the-rotation guy with a mid-rotation ceiling when he hits his prime years.

Another guy Phillies fans want to see but probably won’t until September at the very least is J.P. Crawford. The top prospect in the system is the heir apparent to the departed Jimmy Rollins at shortstop and actually has a profile similar to Rollins, but without as much pop. That being said, a shortstop that could hit .300 with 10-15 homers and steal 20-30 bases a year is something we’d all enjoy. He’ll start at either High-A Clearwater (If you’re in town this year, make sure to stop by the snack bar and get a Delco’s cheesesteak. You’ll thank me later.) or Double-A Reading depending on his Spring Training work, but he’s got an opportunity to move through the system quickly if he continues to play well. If you’re a keeper fantasy league player (Like I am) and are thinking of taking a flyer (Like I have), he’s a wise investment.

More realistic additions in 2015 are likely to help in the bullpen or as a bench player, two areas the Phillies don’t need help in this season, so you can imagine why Phillies fans are hungry for a new influx of talent into the organization.

Position Battles: If you have played first base in your life and are interested in playing in Philadelphia, you might be able to still get down to Clearwater in time to sign a deal with a spring training invite. The fact that Ryan Howard is still on the Phillies roster at this point is insane. I understand him being basically untradeable at this point, but there’s no reason why the Phillies should keep him, even with him being paid all that money ($60 MILLION OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS.) and the fact that Amaro himself said to him in December that the team would be better without him at this point. There was a clash last year with manager Ryne Sandberg wanting to do the sensible thing of platooning Howard (If not outright benching him) but Cody Asche has moved over to 3B for the time being, which means Darin Ruf, who is a four corners player, gets the majority of the playing time in left field. Bully for Ryan, I guess. Don’t be surprised if he’s outright waived at some point before May.

Outside of that, Grady Sizemore got signed to see if there can be anything wrung out of the sponge that is his Major League career, and he’ll battle Ruf for a spot in left field and might actually start in right if Brown continues to play horribly. The pitching rotation will feature Hamels, Lee and Harang at the top. Buchanan should have a lockdown on a spot after a good showing as a rookie in 2014 (even though Williams is the number four starter on the Phillies official depth chart), meaning that Billinglsey and Miguel Gonzalez will be battling for spots. That being said, if deals get made this year (And it should be “when,” not “if,” really) they could be thrust into the rotation anyways.

Injury Concerns: There is plenty to be concerned about in Philadelphia. Injuries make up a sizeable chunk of that concern. The most injury prone Phillie in the last few years was Utley, but he put together a 155 game campaign in 2014 that got him an All-Star berth in his most productive season since the Phillies were last in the World Series. Carlos Ruiz played in only 110 games last year and is now a 36-year-old catcher who is most likely playing out his last Major League contract. Howard is always a concern for injury at this point, as is Sizemore. Brown was one of the worst players in all of baseball last year and maybe nagging injuries could have been to blame there.

The big concern is with Lee, who showed elbow issues for the first time in his career last year and made his somewhat reasonable contract harder to take on in trade talks. If the elbow issues continue, Lee becomes another player that becomes hard to trade for the Phillies. Which leads us to…

X-Factor: Lee is the player that could swing the fortunes of the Phillies rebuilding project this year. Never mind the numbers he’d put up when healthy (5/1 K/BB ratio, FIP under 3) but him being able to throw 30 times in a year is what is most needed for the Phillies. Lee is going to be handled gently in Spring Training with the team hoping that he can come back and still be productive, since Lee, when healthy, is still a #2 starter in this league. His health is a key in a season where, more than perhaps any other player, the Phillies are counting on him to bring home a sizable return in a trade.

Most Important Player: Yeah, I switched up the format a little bit the second week in, but that was a great segue, right?

Cole Hamels is easily the most important player the Phillies have in 2015. A lot like Lee, Hamels’ success is not really going to be told in the numbers he tallies, but in the prospects he returns in the inevitable deal he will headline. He’s an ace-level pitcher on a reasonable contract, he’s relatively young and he’s relatively healthy. For the first time since perhaps his incredible performance in the 2008 playoffs, Hamels’ every start is going to be dissected by fans and team personnel alike to see if the player who could be a true impact player for a contender is still there. His 2014 season was terrific (200+ innings, nearly a strikeout per inning, 4/1 K/BB ratio, ERA of 2.47 with FIP at just over 3) and he looks like he’s still the type of pitcher who can be at the front of a rotation.

The obvious tie with him is to his trade partner, with the much ballyhooed Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart-led package from Boston being a somewhat easy place to see him by season’s end. But most likely he’ll be traded near the non-waiver deadline after a strong few months. The combination of a good performance, the needs of a team both this year and in the future, and the bevy of young talent that is sure to come back to the Phillies is the biggest thing to follow for the team this year.

Key Question: Can this team trade/release all of its veteran talents this year and let the rebuild truly begin?

Howard, Hamels, Lee and Papelbon are four contracts that need to be jettisoned. Right now, after 2016, the only player the Phillies have under a non-buyout contract is Hamels. Papelbon is not what he once was, but he’d still help a contending team, and we’ve already talked about what Hamels and Lee can bring to contending teams. Howard is a black hole at first, and the combo of Asche, Ruf and eventually Franco will suffice for the time being while team figures out some alternatives. Combine this scenario with the 10th overall pick this year (and a likely Top 3 pick in 2016) and the Phillies could have an influx of talent that hasn’t been seen since the Rollins/Utley/Howard trio was running roughshod over the National League. It needs to happen soon and Amaro’s job is at stake (although who’s to say that with Pat Gillick back in the mix that he’ll be around for the rebuild?).

Best Case Scenario: Boston relents and lets either Swihart or Betts go in a deal for Hamels. Howard is released at the end of Spring Training (or SOMEHOW Philly finds a trade partner for him). Franco comes up quickly and hits 20 homers. Nola makes his June call-up a permanent one. Crawford gets a September call-up. The team is without Hamels, Papelbon, and Lee thanks to trades come July 31. And somehow, they get to 70 wins.

Worst Case Scenario: Lee gets hurt, waiting too long on Hamels means he gets hurt or his value deteriorates somehow. Howard plays 1(50) game(s). Utley gets hurt again and 2014 looks like a fluke. Nola and Franco get promoted but don’t do well and get sent back down to the minors. Crawford’s development stalls. Sandberg becomes the fall guy for the front office’s incompetency, yet Amaro gets signed to a five-year extension. (WORST case scenario, right?)

Realistic Prediction: I’m weary on Lee’s elbow, Amaro’s ability to get rid of Howard for good and Hamels getting the return Amaro wants right now. The last one could change come June, but not trading Hamels this offseason hurt the Phillies. I understand the want for the best package possible, but if he doesn’t do well this year, his peak trade value might have come and gone. This team will be flirting with 100 losses with a 95-loss season looking like a sure thing. The team’s steady decline will culminate in rock bottom at the Major League level this season.