The Mets moved decisively early in the offseason, adding a much-needed bat to the outfield in Michael Cuddyer. Unfortunately, general manager Sandy Alderson did little else, as it quickly became once again clear that team ownership wasn’t going to significantly increase payroll. Dreams of trading for a franchise shortstop kept fans warm throughout the winter, but the front office chose instead to hang onto its young pitching. That could end up being the correct decision. Yet it might also mean a postseason spot remains far out of reach, while the Marlins jump ahead of the Mets in the division standings.
Depth Chart (as of 2/26)
C: Travis d’Arnaud
1B: Lucas Duda
2B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Wilmer Flores
3B: David Wright
LF: Curtis Granderson
CF: Juan Lagares
RF: Michael Cuddyer
SP: Matt Harvey
SP: Bartolo Colon
SP: Jon Niese
SP: Zack Wheeler
SP: Jacob deGrom
CL: Jenrry Mejia
New Faces: Michael Cuddyer, John Mayberry Jr., Sean Gilmartin
Departures: Eric Young Jr., Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bobby Abreu, Gonzalez German, Andrew Brown
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Impact Rookies: If the Mets are going to compete for a NL wild-card spot, it will be because of their pitching. And someone who could make a big difference in their rotation later in the season is Noah Syndergaard. The 22-year-old is the Mets’ top prospect, according to Baseball America, and ESPN’s Keith Law ranks him among baseball’s top 20 prospects. A 4.60 ERA at Triple-A last year would seem to indicate that Syndergaard still needs some work, but Las Vegas is not a pitcher-friendly environment. The Mets are probably more encouraged by his 145 strikeouts and 43 walks in 133 innings, and if he continues to progress, the team will surely make room in its rotation for him.
Other rookie arms that could make a contribution include right-hander Rafael Montero, who showed strikeout stuff at Triple-A and in 10 major league appearances last season. With the Mets’ starting rotation fully staffed, Montero might get a shot as a reliever during the spring. But with Dillon Gee already getting pushed to the bullpen, the team might prefer Montero to pitch as a starter in Las Vegas to begin the season. If the relief corps needs some left-handed help, Steven Matz is a possibility. But he’s been a starter during his three years in the Mets organization and that figures to continue.
On the position side, infielder Dilson Herrera had a strong year between Advanced Single-A and Double-A, batting .323 with an .858 OPS, 33 doubles, 13 home runs, 71 RBI and 23 stolen bases overall. That earned him a late-season call-up, during which he didn’t hit for a high average but slugged .407 with three home runs in 66 plate appearances. If Daniel Murphy ends up as midseason trade bait, Herrera could take over at second base.
Another infielder that might push himself to the majors is Matt Reynolds, who hit .354 with an .859 OPS and 20 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last year. That could put him in the mix to compete for a middle infield job (likely the utility position) with the Mets.
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Position Battles: The competition to watch this spring will be for the starting shortstop job. Mets fans and those who cover the team kept the fire lit for a blockbuster acquisition like Troy Tulowitzki or Ian Desmond, but general manager Sandy Alderson wasn’t interested in trading the prospects necessary to make that kind of deal.
The company line has been that Wilmer Flores is ready to be the shortstop, but he’ll compete with Ruben Tejada during spring training. Flores, 23, hit .323 with a .935 OPS, 13 home runs and 57 RBI at Triple-A, but impressed the team in September with a .267/.302/.489 slash average, six doubles, four homers and 14 RBI. That bat should give him the edge over Tejada, who batted .237 with a .652 OPS last season. However, Tejada is viewed as the better defender, which could put him in the lineup when Jon Niese (a groundball pitcher) is pitching or as a late-inning defensive replacement. If both players struggle, the aforementioned Reynolds might steal the job.
Three relievers could also compete for the closer role. Jenrry Mejia would appear to be the favorite, notching 98 strikeouts in 93.2 innings last season with 28 saves in 31 opportunities and a 3.65 ERA. But the Mets also feel Jeurys Familia can handle the ninth inning, having saved five games with a 2.21 ERA and a strikeout rate of 8.5 per nine innings. Vic Black will also get a shot, compiling a 2.60 ERA last season with 32 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. Of course, once Bobby Parnell returns from Tommy John surgery, he’ll likely get his job back.
Two bench positions up for grabs are the backup catcher spot and the fourth outfielder role. Behind the plate, Anthony Recker is the incumbent, but hit .201 last year, giving Kevin Plawecki an opportunity to win his job. Plawecki hit .309 with an .825 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last year, offering a far more potent bat. In the outfield, Kirk Nieuwenhuis figures to have the lead over Matt den Dekker, if for no other reason than he’s out of minor league options. However, den Dekker hit .328 with an .858 OPS in September. Hitting like that during the spring could give him the lead over Nieuwenheis.
Injury Concerns: Let’s start with the guy signed to a two-year, $21 million contract despite appearing in only 49 games last year. Michael Cuddyer, who will turn 36 this spring, averaged 93 games in three seasons with the Rockies. Though he hit .332 with a .955 OPS, Cuddyer wasn’t able to contribute much due to hamstring and shoulder injuries. He hasn’t played in more than 130 games since 2011, and can’t give his body more rest as a designated hitter except when the Mets play in AL parks during interleague play.
David Wright was limited to 134 games by a shoulder injury, an issue that ended his 2014 season in early September. He’s acknowledged this spring that expecting to play in all 162 games isn’t realistic for him, but the hope is that giving him an occasional off-day keeps him healthy. The Mets are aiming for 150 games played from their third baseman.
But the player whose health will probably be monitored more closely than any other by the team is Matt Harvey, who missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. What sort of workload will the Mets’ ace carry this year? Will an innings limit be imposed upon him? Alderson says Harvey will have a “soft” innings cap, presumably meaning there’s not a set number to which he’ll be restricted. The plan is to rest him more by skipping turns in the rotation, perhaps even shutting him down for a couple of weeks, to extend his season and enable him to pitch into September.
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Most Important Player: David Wright
Keeping their third baseman healthy with timely rest and off-days sprinkled throughout the schedule is obviously in the Mets’ best interest because there’s no more vital player to the everyday lineup. Wright may not be the only impact hitter in the middle of the batting order anymore, thanks to additions like Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson, along with the emergence of Lucas Duda. But the Mets need his right-handed bat in the No. 3 spot to be a productive offense.
Wright is coming off the worst year of his career, batting .269 with a .698 OPS and eight home runs. In the prior two seasons, he was an NL MVP candidate based largely on being the only threat in the Mets’ lineup, hitting over .300, averaging 20 home runs and posting an OPS over .880. If Wright is still capable of that level of production, the Mets should be in the top half of the NL in runs scored and improve over last year’s .239 team average.
X-Factor: Matt Harvey
Having an ace at the top of the rotation could be the difference in the Mets beating out the Marlins for second place in the NL East and contending for a wild-card spot. In 2013, Harvey was 9-6 in 26 starts with a 2.27 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 178.1 innings. Expecting him to resume that level of performance right away surely isn’t realistic, but he has to be one of the top — if not the best just yet — pitchers in the Mets’ rotation.
The Mets have a deep rotation with top prospects that will likely help out during the season. So they’re well-equipped to give Harvey the rest he needs to keep him healthy throughout the year and sustain injuries that can develop over 162 games. But every rotation needs a No. 1 guy to set it apart from the competition. Before his elbow gave out, Harvey looked like one of the best pitchers in the NL. The Mets need him to pitch like that again as soon as possible.
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Key Question: Will the Mets get enough punch from their outfield?
Last season, Mets outfielders hit a combined .242 with a .684 OPS. No, that wasn’t the worst in the NL. Three teams were actually less productive. But Duda’s breakout solved the question at first base, and the hope is the Flores can do the same at shortstop. So what about the corner outfield spots?
Between Granderson and Cuddyer, the Mets have paid $81 million to improve those positions. Granderson did pop 20 home runs as the left fielder last year, but hit .227 with a .714 OPS. With another year against NL pitching and smaller dimensions at Citi Field, the Mets obviously want some improvement from him. If Cuddyer stays healthy, there likely won’t be any worries about his offense. He can hit. There should be some concern as to whether or not Cuddyer benefited from Coors Field. He hit .282 with a .734 OPS on the road last season. But that would still be an upgrade over what the Mets got from their right fielders in 2014.
Best Case Scenario: With the Nationals adding Max Scherzer and Yunel Escobar to a team that won 96 games last year, and the other four teams in the division finishing under .500, the NL East looks like a foregone conclusion. But the Mets still won 79 games, so it’s not a stretch to imagine they can climb over the 81-win mark and compete for one of the NL wild-card spots.
The pitching is potentially great, and should be one of the best staffs in the league. If Wright and Cuddyer stay healthy, Granderson improves, Duda maintains his production and Flores is able to hit, the Mets should have the offense to go with their pitching. That should provide enough of a boost for a second-place finish and perhaps the NL’s second wild-card bid.
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Worst Case Scenario: If Granderson continues to show that his best seasons were a product of hitting in Yankee Stadium, Cuddyer looks like a terrible investment of $21 million, Wright becomes increasingly brittle and shortstop is a season-long question mark, it’s not going to be a fun season in Queens. Things could be even worse if Harvey struggles, Jacob deGrom regresses, Bartolo Colon shows his age, and Syndergaard demonstrates that he’s not yet ready. Oh, and what if none of the closer candidates is reliable in the ninth inning?
The Mets should still avoid last place in the NL east, thanks to the Phillies. But if injuries pile up and certain hitters don’t meet expectations, the real competition will be with the Braves for fourth place.
Realistic Prediction: Mets fans I’ve spoken with believe a second-place finish is entirely possible. I think they’re seriously underestimating the Marlins, who are much improved and have a more talented young core of players — especially on the position player side. But 2015 was supposed to be the year in which this team made a jump because that’s when the pitching was going to be ready. If only Alderson could have improved his lineup a bit more, instead of overseeing a rather lackluster offseason. Ideally, signing Cuddyer would have been the first of at least a couple winter improvments, rather than the only significant move the Mets made.
With everything going right — players staying healthy and performing to expectations — this could be a second-place team. But a third-place finish looks more realistic to me. If the pitching develops as expected, helping the Mets to an over-.500 finish, perhaps that will give ownership the motivation it needs to give Alderson more financial resources to work with. And maybe the GM will also be willing to use some of those young arms to improve other areas of the roster. This season could be an important step in the Mets’ progression toward contention. Plateauing or regressing would be the true disappointment.
