After years of toiling at the bottom of the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins finally look like they are ready to break out of their doldrums. Featuring a ton of young talent on the rise and a new manager in Hall of Famer and legendary former Twin Paul Molitor, the Twin Cities look like they have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time. But after a false start in 2014 thanks to injuries to their top two prospects, will their arrivals, along with the other names near the top of the team’s prospect list, finally turn the team’s fortunes around?
Depth Chart (As of 3/16)
C: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Joe Mauer
2B: Brian Dozier
3B: Trevor Plouffe
SS: Danny Santana
LF: Oswaldo Arcia
CF: Aaron Hicks/Jordan Schafer
RF: Torii Hunter
DH: Kennys Vargas
SP: Phil Hughes
SP: Ervin Santana
SP: Kyle Gibson
SP: Ricky Nolasco
SP: Tommy Milone/Mike Pelfrey
CL: Glen Perkins
New Faces: Tim Stauffer, Ervin Santana, Torii Hunter
Departures: Jared Burton
SURPRISE, AZ – OCTOBER 20: Byron Buxton #2 (Minnesota Twins) of the Salt River Rafters bats against the Peoria Javelinas during the Arizona Fall League game at Surprise Stadium on October 20, 2014 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: The 2015 season is supposed to see a veritable smorgasbord of rookies finally ascend to the big leagues. Most notably, of course, is center fielder Byron Buxton. While he has slipped to #2 on some prospect lists thanks to Kris Bryant’s insane 2014 campaign, there is little doubt about the talent the 21-year-old has. He’s a true five tool player with the ability to string together .300/20 HR/30 SB-type seasons on the regular while playing impressive defense. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his ascension, and a scary collision in the Arizona Fall League this past year didn’t allow him to truly showcase his abilities like fans and Twins personnel had hoped. It’s unclear if Buxton will start in High-A or Double-A, but the consensus is that if he shows that the minors will be quickly behind him, the Twins won’t wait too long to make him the team’s regular center fielder. They’re hoping it will be sometime this summer.
In addition to Buxton is the powerful Miguel Sano, who missed all of 2014 thanks to Tommy John surgery. Featuring mammoth in-game power, Sano was looking like a surefire addition to the team last season before the injury. There have been questions about his ability to handle third base, but for the time being, he’s definitely been serviceable, allowing his bat to play up on the defensive spectrum. His placement in the Top 10-15 of most prospect lists is the reason why the Twins were the #2 farm system behind the Cubs on most team evaluations heading into 2015. At the Major League level, he’ll feature easy 30 HR+ pop, but also has a good eye at the plate, even with the high strikeout totals. He should start the season at Double-A and it’ll be a race to see who will be in Minneapolis first between he and Buxton.
But that’s not all. Two possible starters are on the horizon for the Twins, as well. The big right-hander Alex Meyer features a fastball in the mid-90’s and decent secondary offerings. At this point, he should not be in Triple-A for too long, and look for him to join the rotation once Tommy Milone and/or Mike Pelfrey falter. Right behind him should be Jose Berrios, who is slight in stature but big on stuff. He had a sensational 2014 season and looks like he’ll be able to slot in with Meyer at the back of the rotation this season, but in future years, both pitchers could be mid- or top-tier rotation starters. Suffice to say, Twins rookies will dictate the success of their teams’ season more than any others outside of the Cubs in 2015.
DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 25: Aaron Hicks #32 of the Minnesota Twins reacts after striking out in the ninth inning during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on September 25, 2014 in Detroit, Michigan. The Tigers defeated the Twins 4-2. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Position Battles: Aaron Hicks is not good at professional baseball at the Major League level right now, and is going to be given a run in center field by Jordan Schafer. Both players were once considered top prospects, but now both are scuffling for playing time on one of the worst teams in the Majors. My how the mighty have fallen. Hicks has performed well so far this spring while Schafer has struggled, so it looks like Hicks will get the lion’s share of time roaming center field.
If you squint behind the plate long enough, you might be able to discern a battle for time between Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto, as Pinto has been one of the better catching prospects around for awhile. Suzuki’s fantastic 2014 season has brought him back for another go-around with the Twins, however, and Pinto might not get a chance to shine that much this year unless Suzuki gets traded.
On the mound, Milone and Pelfrey will be battling for the final starter’s spot. In Spring Training, both pitchers have performed well, but Ricky Nolasco has not performed so poorly that he would lose his spot in the rotation to both guys. That being said, there will definitely be some questions to answer shortly after the season starts, as both Meyer and Berrios will be quick to put pressure on the Twins to bring them up to join the team.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 18: Joe Mauer #7 of the Minnesota Twins reacts to striking out against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning of the game on August 18, 2014 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns: The obvious concern to the team on the injury front in 2015 is Joe Mauer. While his move from behind the plate to first base has helped soothe those concerns, his back will remain an issue most likely through the rest of his career. He missed 42 games last season and will have times this year where he won’t be available. However, once Sano is ready to go, Kennys Vargas can step in for Mauer at 1B and Sano can DH, which should keep the performance alright in Mauer’s absence. The hope is that regular DH appearances will help the health of Mauer, as well.
Of course, while they aren’t on the main roster yet, the injury concerns of Sano and Buxton are warranted, especially in the case of Buxton, who had a Mike Trout-like ascension path in front of him before being bombarded with issues. If both players can avoid the bug in 2015, it’s gonna really do wonders for the Twins.
The pitching staff doesn’t have too many concerns as of right now outside of Kyle Gibson, who has had elbow issues in the past. With the team not doing too well in the first place, injuries overall are going to be taken as part of the growing pains, but the team is hoping for a minimal intrusion of injuries this year.
FORT MYERS, FL – MARCH 3: Byron Buxton #70 of the Minnesota Twins poses for a photo on March 3, 2015 at Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: I’d be lying if I said it was anyone other than Buxton. If he can arrive in 2015, his mere presence alone is going to be a boost to this team. At team events leading up to this year, he was by far the most popular player sought out by fans, even moreso than franchise standout Torii Hunter. Outside of the intangible boost, what he can do on the field will give the team a true threat and someone who can be a dynamic presence at the top of the lineup. Buxton becoming a big leaguer is good for the Twins, good for the league and good for baseball fans who have wanted to see what the guy can do at the highest level. Everyone is hoping that 2015 will be the year we all finally get to see what he can do.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – SEPTEMBER 3: Kennys Vargas #19 of the Minnesota Twins hits an RBI single against the Chicago White Sox during the fifth inning of the game on September 3, 2014 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the White Sox 11-4. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
X-Factor: Kennys Vargas came out of nowhere at the end of last season and put up some pretty fun numbers, smashing nine homers in 234 plate appearances. A hulking presence at 6’5″ and 275 lbs., Vargas has pop from pole to pole and can handle first well enough to let Mauer get his chance to DH on most days. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, he gives the team some added pop that could make things easier in the middle of the order. If things go as planned in 2015, the top 5 in the order would feature some combination of Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Sano and Vargas. Behind him would be Plouffe, Hunter, Suzuki and Santana. That’s a pretty good lineup to build with right there, and although it looks like he’s extraneous with Sano’s arrival, Plouffe’s ability to move to left field would allow Sano to slot in without disturbing Vargas. Nonetheless, the big guy can really make things happen at the plate, and although his walk rate is low, a better approach in 2015 could do wonders.
SURPRISE, AZ – OCTOBER 20: Byron Buxton #2 (Minnesota Twins) of the Salt River Rafters bats against the Peoria Javelinas during the Arizona Fall League game at Surprise Stadium on October 20, 2014 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Key Question: Will Buxton play a full season?
I keep coming back to Buxton, but it just stresses the importance of what him being in a Twins uniform in 2015 could mean. If he does start at Double-A and has a fantastic start to his season, there’s nothing stopping him from being in the Major Leagues. If he can play a full season, then the Twins will finally feel good about their future superstar and feel like 2016 could be a big step forward. However, if he falters again and the injuries catch up for a third consecutive year, the unfortunate “damaged goods” label will most likely get dropped on him, even by turning only 22. The idea of him being a talent that can’t stay on the field has been a bad dream of sorts for the Twins the last couple seasons. But a third year in a row would be an absolute nightmare. Here’s hoping it’s a dream come true this season.
CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 9: Trevor Plouffe #24, Joe Mauer #7 and Oswaldo Arcia #31 of the Minnesota Twins celebrate after the Twins defeated the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on September 9, 2014 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Twins defeated the Indians 4-3. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario: The kids arrive and everything is alright. Sano pops 20 homers, Vargas hits 30 and Buxton arrives to the tune of a .300 average and double digit homers and steals while continuing a golden age of center fielders to go along with Trout and McCutchen. Phil Hughes shows his incredible 2014 season was not fluky at all and Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco solidify the rotation while Meyer and Berrios supplement it. If all the kids come up by June, there’s no reason to think that the .500 mark would be hard to reach.
Worst Case Scenario: Buxton gets hurt again. Sano can’t find his power post-surgery. Hughes shows that his 2014 season was indeed a fluke. Nolasco and Santa struggle mightily. Mauer’s back continues to hamper him. Brian Dozier’s performance in 2015 leaves little to be desired. Yet another 90-95 loss season for the Twins.
Realistic Prediction: While staying healthy is indeed a skill, the issues that have hampered Buxton lead me to believe that bad luck was too much a part of it to think he couldn’t step up and do something good in 2015 for the big league club. Same thing with Sano, Meyer and Berrios. Even if the entire group doesn’t arrive before the All-Star Break, the Twins should be excited to see so much young talent arrive to join young-yet-flawed talents in Vargas and Danny Santana. The jump from 70 to 81 wins isn’t as big as you might think considering the division the Twins play in, but if everyone stays relatively healthy, 80 wins is a realistic goal for the Twins. And if all cylinders are firing, 2016 in the AL Central will be one heck of a race.
