For two straight seasons, the Dodgers have been the pre-season talk of the National League West. For two straight seasons, the Dodgers ran into the playoff buzzsaw known as the St. Louis Cardinals. In those two playoff series, Clayton Kershaw lost a 1-0 decision in 2013 NLCS and then proceeded to give up 18 runs in his next three starts, including two series-clinching wins for the Cardinals. 186 wins in those two seasons? Didn’t mean a thing. Kershaw’s two straight Cy Youngs and an MVP? Nope. Not enough Now? Andrew Friedman has been given the keys to baseball’s most expensive kingdom and has reformed the team with shrewd trades and savvy signings in typical Friedman fashion. Surrounded by the best team he’s had since Tampa Bay’s 2008 World Series run, can Friedman’s knowhow help a talented team finally get over the hump?
Depth Chart (As of 3/26):
C: Yasmani Grandal/A.J. Ellis
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Juan Uribe/Hector Olivera
SS: Jimmy Rollins
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Joc Pederson
RF: Yasiel Puig
SP: Clayton Kershaw
SP: Zack Greinke
SP: Hyun-Jin Ryu (DL) – Should be replaced by… wait, Joe Wieland???
SP: Brett Anderson
SP: Brandon McCarthy
CL: Kenley Jansen (DL) – Closer by committee
New Faces: Yasmani Grandal, Howie Kendrick, Hector Olivera, Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Joel Peralta, Mike Bolsinger, Chris Heisey, Chris Hatcher, Enrique Hernandez, Joe Wieland, Brandon Beachy, Dustin MacGowan
Departures: Roger Bernadina, Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett, Jamey Wright, Robert Hernandez, Paul Maholm, Chris Perez, Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Correia, Scott Elbert, Jose Dominguez, Matt Magill, Drew Butera, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Miguel Rojas, Matt Kemp, Tim Federowicz, Brian Wilson
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 01: Joc Pederson #65 of the Los Angeles Dodgers at bat in his MLB debut against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on September 1, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: Joc Pederson is considered a rookie this season even with his 2014 cameo, and he’s been ranked near the top of every 2015 prospect list there is. Pederson is considered one of the best young position players in the game, a power-speed combo that can cover center field, another in the now seemingly bursting center field grouping in the game today. He was impressive in his short stint in 2014, but there’s a lot who believe he could be the front runner for the Rookie of the Year award this season. His ascendance made Matt Kemp a tradable asset, and Andrew Friedman has confidence that over a full season, Pederson could become one of the team’s best overall players.
Two Cuban signees should also make quite an impact in 2015. Alex Guerrero has had himself a blistering Spring Training run, and will join the team on Opening Day, even with Howie Kendrick ahead of him at the keystone. While Triple-A Albuquerque is considered a bandbox, a .329/.364/.613 line is nothing to sniff at, but his patience has been an issue at the plate, as he struck out nearly five times more than he walked. He does have a high contact rate, but even with his hot Spring, Kendrick is the better overall player right now, and he’ll be a valuable partner with him. He’s best at second, but as a utility player, he has the chance to play all over the place.
The other signee is Hector Olivera, who signed earlier this week with the team for six years and $62.5 million. The 29-year-old does come with some reported baggage, as an elbow issue feared by the Dodgers forced a seventh year option to be added at $1 million in case Olivera needs Tommy John surgery. More about Olivera is discussed in Ian Casselberry’s breakdown above, but the basis is he has the opportunity to be an impact player this year once he gets through a run in the minors. Juan Uribe is a free agent after the 2015 season, as is Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick. Top prospect Corey Seager might be ready by year’s end to come up, giving the Dodgers some of the best positional depth in baseball. Olivera himself is a noted slugger, but his ceiling isn’t as high as Jose Abreu’s or even Yasmani Tomas offensively. However, he’s more adept to handle third base, and Uribe would definitely be tradable around the deadline. There’s a ton of upside for the Dodgers here.
LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 29: Andre Ethier #16 of the Los Angeles Dodgers runs the bases after hitting a three run homerun in the fifth inning against the St Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium on June 29, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)
Position Battles: Even with all these new faces in town, there’s not much in the way of position battles. Andre Ethier isn’t happy about not being a starter yet again, but there’s no way he starts in front of the trio the Dodgers are rolling out come opening day. Same goes for Guerrero at second base and eventually Olivera at third base. The best thing that can happen for the Dodgers is for both Cuban stalwarts to force the front office to make a deal happen, which would not be hard for either Uribe or Kendrick, as both still offer value even as half-season rentals. However, injuries could make things interesting at a couple spots. Which brings us to…
Injury Concerns: Right off the bat, the Dodgers won’t have Hyun-Jin Ryu or Kenley Jansen to start the season. That’s your #3 starter and one of the best closers in baseball out for at least a month, with Ryu’s injury being yet another team’s hopeful vision that rest will heal this particular wound. With the shortage of pitching the Dodgers have right now, Ryu’s injury couldn’t come at a worse time. There’s been some talk that with the depth the Dodgers have in the infield that a trade could happen relatively soon, but that shouldn’t be expected unless the Dodgers fear Ryu will be out for the long haul. With a month’s rest on the books already, a trade involving Uribe or even Kendrick could be made to help bring in an arm to fill in, but would most likely only be made if Ryu would be out for an extended period of time.
There’s also the ever-present spectre in the room: Kershaw could blow up at any time. Greinke, too. Ryu going down is one thing. But one of those two going down would be a nightmare for the team. Luckily, there is help across the board at every other position on the field and depth in the minors in case of a major emergency.
ST LOUIS, MO – OCTOBER 07: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game Four of the National League Divison Series at Busch Stadium on October 7, 2014 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: So Clayton Kershaw is the obvious play here, but this team is full of important players, really. Greinke, Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Pederson, the list goes on and on. But three Cy Young Awards in four years (with many believing he probably should have beaten R.A. Dickey in 2012). Led the league last year in numerous categories both for the statistically simple (Wins, ERA, Complete Games) and advanced (FIP, ERA+, K/9). Five consecutive 200 K seasons. C’mon. Who else would I pick?
He’s a Top 5 player in all of baseball. He’s the best pitcher of his generation. He’s the karmic successor to Sandy Koufax. There’s an argument that he might be even more important to his team than Mike Trout. Mike… Trout. He’s as irreplaceable as they come, and the Dodgers have to hope he stays that way.
X-Factor: For a team this good, it’s hard to pick an X-Factor, but the guy to watch all of a sudden becomes Olivera. Once he’s ready to go, a lot of dominoes start to fall at the Major League Level. If there’s anything that could put the Dodgers over the top and make them a favorite along the lines of what the Nationals can bring to the table, Olivera filling in a long-dreadful hole at third base would be an incredible get for the Dodgers, and a 1-8 that can tout being the best in the National League (1-9 if Greinke’s hitting). The problem is that he might not be ready until May, and if there really is an issue with his UCL, the Olivera run might begin next year. Right now the Dodgers are hoping the elbow doesn’t bark.
I’m gonna throw another one out there that also falls under the Impact Rookie banner. The 18-year-old sensation Julio Urias is one of the best stories in all of baseball. Found on the same scouting trip that netted Puig, Urias was throwing to a catcher the team was scouting and was highly impressive, sitting in the low 90’s and making it look easy at 16. Two years later, he’s absolutely torn up the minors and will start the season in Double-A. And he’s doing all this with a condition in his left eye that many thought would leave him blind, but ended up being a benign mass that has left him with a droopy eyelid. However, the Dodgers have been incredibly impressed with what they’ve seen, as his work ethic is second to none and he already controls three plus pitches from the left side. He doesn’t turn 19 until August. But if he can do it yet again in 2015 at the Double-A level, the Dodgers might have no choice but to bring him up. And if he does? It could swing the team’s pitching fortunes in 2015. Prepare yourselves, for Julio-Mania might be coming soon.
LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 27: Hyun-Jin Ryu #99 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning against the St Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium on June 27, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)
Key Question: So what if that pitching staff doesn’t hold up?
It might be the biggest question the team faces in 2015. Ryu being hurt already is not a good sign, but if anything happens to the other two players above him in the rotation, the Dodgers will have themselves a horrible situation on their hands. On top of that, the two arms behind Ryu, Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy, have had plenty of issues themselves. For many fans of advanced stats, there are plenty of red flags for all five starters. Whether it’s the previous injury issues in the back-end staff, the current issue in the middle or the innings load on the front of the staff perhaps ready to finally show some wear and tear, even the great Andrew Friedman has to be holding his breath. There is depth to deal from, but Cole Hamels might be out of the picture unless Corey Seager gets involved, and that’s gonna make Friedman take pause. Even with a window that seems wide open, three-fourths of the infield becoming free agents means Seager means a lot right now. It might be a bumpy ride.
Best Case Scenario: Everybody rakes. Ryu’s arm is ready after the rest. Kershaw and Greinke remain Kershaw and Greinke. Anderson and McCarthy throw 350 innings. Urias arrives. Guerrero and Olivera’s success turn Uribe and Kendrick into other reinforcements either as utility guys or trade bait for pitching depth. Even with the Padres improvement and the Giants always there, 100 wins is not out of the question if this team fires on all cylinders.
Worst Case Scenario: Kershaw and/or Greinke join Ryu on the disabled list. Olivera and Guerrero’s success doesn’t translate to the MLB level. Pederson stalls out. Even then? Can’t see them falling that far below .500, if that.
Realistic Prediction: They are easy favorites for the National League West championship and are right below the Nationals on in the NL hierarchy. This is an easy 90-95 win projection, and even as a fervent Giants fan, Clayton Kershaw is someone I can’t help but admire. Also, Yasiel Puig batflips are the best. They’re gonna be dominant. They’re gonna be tough to beat. And for the team’s case, they’re hoping the third time is the charm.
