The Cincinnati Reds began what could be a long, slow slide to the bottom of the NL Central in 2014, finishing with 76 wins — only three ahead of the Cubs for last place. Injuries killed what promised to be a strong lineup. General manager Walt Jocketty probably should have begun a roster renovation, and did trade Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon for young talent during the offseason. Instead, he kept most of the band together for one last shot at the postseason in Johnny Cueto’s final season before free agency. Getting there will be difficult in what should be the NL’s toughest division.
Depth Chart (as of 3/10)
C: Devin Mesoraco
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Zack Cosart
3B: Todd Frazier
LF: Marlon Byrd
CF: Billy Hamilton
RF: Jay Bruce
SP: Johnny Cueto
SP: Homer Bailey
SP: Mike Leake
SP: Tony Cingrani
SP: Anthony DeSclafani
CL: Aroldis Chapman
New Faces: Marlon Byrd, Anthony DeSclafani, Burke Badenhop, Paul Maholm, Brennan Boesch, Jason Marquis, Kevin Gregg
Departures: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey, Ryan Ludwick, Ramon Santiago, Jack Hannahan
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Impact Rookies: Anthony DeSclafani, 24, was acquired from the Marlins in the Mat Latos trade. He struggled in 13 appearances (five starts) with Miami, compiling a 6.27 ERA and allowing 40 hits in 33 innings. But the right-hander struck out 26 batters while walking only five. In the minors, DeSclafani went 6-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 102.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s expected to win a job in the starting rotation this spring.
David Holmberg, 23, is another rookie who could nab a starting job with an impressive spring. The left-hander posted a 4.80 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) with the Reds last season, but pitched especially well in September, compiling a 1.82 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 24.2 innings.
Raisel Iglesias signed a seven-year, $27 million contract last June, indicating that big things are expected from him. The right-hander, 24, pitched mostly as a reliever during three professional seasons in Cuba, and that’s where he could immediately contribute this season. But Cincinnati wants him to transition into a starting pitcher. Iglesias throws in the 94 to 96 mph range, while also featuring a slider and curveball. Developing his changeup might determine when he pitches in the majors.
Robert Stephenson might still be a year away from the majors after finishing last season in Double-A with a 7-10 record and 4.75 ERA. But the Reds’ No. 1 prospect racked up 140 strikeouts in 136.1 innings last season. The 22-year-old still needs to work on his location, however, as his 74 walks demonstrate.
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Position Battles: The Reds have two openings in their starting rotation — three until Homer Bailey recovers from elbow surgery — so that’s where the most competition will be this spring. DeSclafani, and possibly Holmberg, will contend for one of those spots.
Tony Cingrani is probably a favorite to win the other. Last year, the left-hander went 2-8 with a 4.55 ERA in 13 appearances (11 starts), while striking out 61 batters in 63.1 innings. His 35 walks were a concern, but that could be attributed to a shoulder injury that finished his season in June.
Two veterans signed to minor league deals could also contribute as starters until Bailey returns. Lefty Paul Maholm started eight games for the Dodgers last season (appearing in 30 games) before tearing the ACL in his right knee while covering first base. He went 1-5 with a 4.81 ERA. Jason Marquis is another candidate for a starting job who could later move to the bullpen. The 36-year-old did not pitch in the majors last year, making eight starts for the Phillies’ Triple-A club. He went 3-1 with a 4.63 ERA.
Injury Concerns: An immediate concern for the Reds has to be Devin Mesoraco’s condition. The catcher sustained a concussion on March 7 and has been restricted to the stationary bike and treadmill until he’s cleared to play again. Concussions can be an even greater concern for someone who’s suffered them before. Mesoraco went on the seven-day DL in 2012 and says he had a concussion in the minors in 2010. Could this be a season-long issue for a catcher, with the foul balls to the helmet and home plate collisions that come with the position?
Joey Votto was limited to 62 games last season due to a left quad injury and missed the first four games of spring training while working his way back. Typically, the Reds first baseman is a durable player. He’s just two seasons removed from playing in all 162 games. But Votto has had a full offseason to recover and is reportedly fully healthy. Generating power from his back leg while swinging and his ability to run the bases will be a concern until Votto shows he’s injury-free, however.
Homer Bailey isn’t expected to be ready for the beginning of the season, coming off surgery to repair the flexor mass tendon in his right elbow. The Reds have hoarded arms to fill in until he’s ready, but Bailey’s health — especially for a pitcher who throws a slider frequently — could be something that needs monitoring all season.
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Most Important Player: Joey Votto
It surely can’t be a coincidence that Cincinnati slid to 76 wins, finishing fourth in the NL Central, while Votto had the worst season of his career. Yes, Votto only appeared in 62 games because of injury, but he batted .255 with a .799 OPS, 16 doubles, six homers and 23 RBI. Even when he was in the lineup, the 2010 NL MVP wasn’t very effective.
Votto has already caused a bit of controversy this spring, responding to critics — particularly broadcaster Marty Brennaman — who say he focuses too much on drawing walks and compiling a high on-base percentage (OBP) and calling them “ignorant.” Of course, he’s right. Votto has led the NL in OBP during four of his eight MLB seasons. Getting on base is a key to scoring runs, and when Votto is at his best, the Reds typically score 700 runs as a team.
But those who sneer at Votto drawing walks believe that a player who signed a 10-year, $225 million contract should hit for more power and drive in more runs. Never mind that Votto isn’t making outs when he’s getting on base. Isn’t that ultimately the goal of a batter, to not make outs and keep an inning alive? And with Votto on base, the Reds’ other run producers such as Mesoraco, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Marlon Byrd have a chance to drive him in. Perhaps the real question should be why manager Bryan Price doesn’t bat Votto higher in the lineup, like in the No. 2 spot.
X-Factor: Brandon Phillips
My initial impulse was to list Jay Bruce here. But if the Reds’ right fielder is healthy, he’s productive. Bruce had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee last season, limiting him to 137 games. The injury clearly affected him at the plate too, where he batted .217 with a .654 OPS, 18 home runs and 66 RBI — all career lows.
The more uncertain player whom the Reds need a far better year from is Phillips. To be fair, the second baseman was hampered by a torn ligament in his left thumb since July. During the first half of the season, he hit .272 with a .701 OPS, 19 doubles, seven homers and 40 RBI — in line with his typical numbers. But in the second half, following that thumb injury, Phillips batted .250 with a .620 OPS. He’s evolved into more of a middle-of-the-order run producer than a guy who gets on base and uses his speed at the top of the lineup.
Phillips will turn 34 in June, and you have to think his skills will diminish accordingly. His speed is certainly no longer a component of his game, stealing seven bases combined over the past two seasons. That’s also appeared to affect his ability to hit for extra bases, resulting in a slugging percentage below .400 during the same span. Ideally, Jocketty would be able to trade Phillips and play Eugenio Suarez or Zack Cozart at second, but with $39 million remaining on the final three years of his contract, that’s not happening. So the Reds just have to accept that Phillips has become a different type of player, hope he can be productive lower in the batting order and still get great defense from him at second base.
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Key Question: Can the bullpen rebound from a disappointing 2014?
Last season, Cincinnati relievers had the second worst ERA in the NL at 4.11. Only the Rockies bullpen was worse. The Reds also allowed opponents to compile a .713 OPS, third-worst in the league. Though the starting rotation has some major holes to fill, there is far more uncertainty about the Reds bullpen. The only sure thing is closer Aroldis Chapman, who had another outstanding season with 106 strikeouts in 54 innings and a 2.00 ERA. And he missed the first five weeks of the season, after being hit in the head by a line drive during spring training.
But who pitches behind Chapman? Jocketty didn’t pursue any of the top free agent middle relievers. However, he may have found a nice bargain in Burke Badenhop, who signed a one-year, $1 million deal with incentives. Last year with the Red Sox, the right-hander posted a 2.29 ERA and being a groundball pitcher should serve him well at Great American Ball Park. But Badenhop isn’t really setup man material.
Jumbo Diaz will likely be the eighth-inning man. In 36 appearances, he struck out 37 batters in 34.2 innings, compiling a 3.38 ERA last season. Sam LeCure probably joins Diaz in the setup crew, posting a 3.81 ERA and striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings. Cincinnati will need a better year from left-hander Manny Parra, whose ERA ballooned to 4.66. His strikeout rate also dropped by nearly three batters per nine frames, as he struggled with a back injury.
Iglesias could get a shot early on, while he builds himself up for a starter’s workload. Price supposedly likes Michael Lorenzen as a candidate to pitch long relief, though Maholm or Marquis could fill that role. Matt Magill will also be considered, though his walk rate (6.3 per nine innings with Triple-A Albuquerque) is terrifying. Pedro Villarreal is probably a far better choice. Veterans Kevin Gregg and Jose Mijares were signed to minor league deals and could provide some depth.
Best Case Scenario: The Cardinals are held back by their pitching, while the Pirates can’t find a fifth starter. Both could find it difficult to separate from the NL Central pack. That would obviously benefit the Reds. Bailey returning healthy and two candidates stepping up to fill out the rotation would obviously help as well. The bullpen also needs reliable arms to bridge the gap between the starters and Chapman in the ninth.
Most importantly, everyone in the lineup stays healthy. Votto returns to MVP form, Bruce and Phillips rebound to provide production in the middle of the batting order, Todd Frazier continues to develop into one of the NL’s best third basemen and Billy Hamilton learns to get on base more and utilize his excellent speed. With everything going right, the Reds offense again becomes powerful, ranking among the top of the NL in runs scored.
Worst Case Scenario: Once again, the everyday lineup is decimated by injury. Bruce and Phillips continue to decline, Marlon Byrd begins to play like a 37-year-old, and Frazier struggles trying to carry the middle of the order. Votto lets the criticism about his lack of power and RBI production get into his head, and his on-base numbers suffer. Even worse, no one drives him in. No one drives Hamilton in either, because he can’t get on base. The starting rotation spends the entire season trying to find arms to fill the back two spots, cycling through multiple starters as prospects like Iglesias and Stephenson stall in their development.
Realistic Prediction: Though the Reds have enough talent to contend in the NL Central, staying with the Cardinals and Pirates doesn’t seem likely with so many questions on their pitching staff. The real battle for this team might be for third place in the division. And if the Cubs progress as many are predicting, Cincinnati may be fighting with the Brewers for fourth place. Winning 80 games seems like a stretch for this team. Under those circumstances, Johnny Cueto might become midseason trade bait, giving Jocketty an opportunity to add more prospects and look ahead to the future.
