It’s been an odd three years for the 2013 World Champions, hasn’t it? First, the bottom fell out on 2012. Then, the Sox won the 2013 World Series. Next, in 2014, Boston fell *back* to last in the AL East…and the only players left from that 2012 disaster are Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Nava, and Junichi Tazawa. But the Red Sox have retooled for the 2015 season, and expectations are higher…though still muted.
Depth Chart (as of 2/16)
C: Christian Vazquez
1B: Mike Napoli
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Xander Bogaerts
3B: Pablo Sandoval
LF: Hanley Ramirez
CF: Rusney Castillo
RF: Mookie Betts
DH: David Ortiz
SP: Rick Porcello
SP: Wade Miley
SP: Justin Masterson
SP: Clay Buchholz
SP: Joe Kelly
CL: Koji Uehara
New Faces: Mitchell Boggs, Ryan Hanigan, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, Alexi Ogando, Rick Porcello, Hanley Ramirez, Robbie Ross, Pablo Sandoval, Zeke Spruill, Anthony Varvaro
Departures: Burke Badenhop, Yoenis Cespedes, Rubby de la Rosa, Ryan Dempster, Jonathan Herrera, Ryan Lavarnway, David Ross, Allen Webster, Alex Wilson
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 28: Rusney Castillo #38 celebrates a run with Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox against the New York Yankees during the last game of the season at Fenway Park on September 28, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: There are two guys to keep an eye on in Boston in 2015 – outfielders Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo. Betts actually isn’t technically a rookie anymore, as he blew his eligibility during a 52-game stint in the majors during the 2014 season. But regardless of that, he’s expected to play a big role with the Red Sox this year. In 99 games in the minors, split between AA and AAA, Betts hit a ridiculous .346/431/.529 with 11 homers, 33 stolen bases, and more strikeouts than walks at the age of 21. In the majors, he more than held his own by hitting .291/.368/.444 with five homers and seven steals. He’s only 22, and already looking like a potentially elite player.
The 27-year old Castillo is much less known of a commodity. The Red Sox signed him out of Cuba to a $72.5 million deal over the summer, and he played just ten games in the majors before the season came to a close. In those ten games, an admittedly small sample, Castillo hit .333/.400/.528 with two homers and three steals. He struggled in an eight-game stint in the AFL after the season, but that’s somehow an even smaller, less consequential sample. Following the success of Cuban hitters Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Abreu in recent years, all of baseball will be keeping an eye on Castillo to see if he can successfully follow in their footsteps.
Other names to keep an eye on are catcher Blake Swihart, third baseman Garin Cecchini, and pitchers Matt Barnes and Henry Owens. However, don’t expect Boston to rush any of those four. Swihart has played in just 18 games above AA, and fellow young backstop Christian Vazquez held his own in 2014. Cecchini is blocked at third base (for now) by new addition Pablo Sandoval. Barnes and Owens could use some finishing at AAA, and Boston’s rotation upgrades this winter pushes their promotions to the back burner…for now.
ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 15: Alexi Ogando #41 of the Texas Rangers throws against the Seattle Mariners in the 8th inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on April 15, 2014 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Position Battles: Boston is in an enviable position going into Spring Training because they don’t have any major position battles. We’re really just looking at players trying to earn spots on the bench or in the bullpen. Daniel Nava has had plenty of value in Boston over the last three seasons, but the presence of highly-paid veterans Allen Craig and Shane Victorino could render him an afterthought this spring.
The Red Sox have a more fluid situation in the bullpen, with probably two positions still up for grabs. Ex-Rangers duo Alexi Ogando and Robbie Ross seem to be the favorites for those positions right now, but Brandon Workman (who was much better in the bullpen than the rotation in 2014) and Heath Hembree could challenge the pair for spots on the 25-man roster.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL – AUGUST 30: Athletic trainer Brad Pearson of the Boston Red Sox and manager John Farrell #53 check on second baseman Dustin Pedroia #15 of the Boston Red Sox following Pedroia’s contact with Logan Forsythe of the Tampa Bay Rays at second base off of a sacrifice fly by Ryan Hanigan during the second inning of a game on August 30, 2014 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns: When you have a roster consisting of more than a couple players on the wrong side of 30, injuries are bound to be a concern. Naturally, most of Boston’s veterans have injuries to keep an eye on. An injured hand bothered Dustin Pedroia for nearly the entire season, and he eventually had surgery on it in September. There’s seemingly a different injury with Pedroia every year, so Boston will hope that he doesn’t go down with something serious in 2014. Justin Masterson wasn’t effective at all in 2014 with the Indians and Cardinals, and a right knee injury that cost him nearly a month could have been the culprit.
Shane Victorino was a non-factor in 2014 because of injuries, spending time on the DL with two separate hamstring strains and a bulging disc in his back. Hanley Ramirez is good for a DL stint every year, and while he only went on the DL once in 2014, he missed time with an oblique strain, a hand contusion, a calf strain, and shoulder inflammation. Mike Napoli was out with a sore foot and a sprained finger. Allen Craig’s foot injuries from 2013 lingered throughout 2014, eventually landing him on the DL in August. Clay Buchholz had offseason meniscus surgery. Alexi Ogando’s season ended in June because of a sprained UCL.
TORONTO, CANADA – AUGUST 8: Rick Porcello #21 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates a two-run home run by Nick Castellanos #9 in the ninth inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 8, 2014 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: Rick Porcello.
The Red Sox rotation is really nothing but third and fourth starters going into the season, and I have no idea if their quintet will be able to perform at a high enough level to compete in the American League. If any rotation member is going to step up in 2015 for the Red Sox, I think it’s going to be Porcello, who is just 26, will be a free agent after the season, and is coming off of arguably the best season of his career. In 2014, Porcello cracked the 200 inning mark for the first time in his career, and his 3.43 ERA was a career-best by nearly a full run. He also posed the second-highest strikeout rate of his career and the lowest walk rate of his career while also allowing his lowest ground ball rate. Is he going to be able to take another step forward and become a guy worth a nine figure deal next winter, or is he going to keep settling into that mold of a solid middle of the rotation guy and nothing more? His season will be quite an interesting one to keep an eye on.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JULY 26: Hanley Ramirez #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers lays on the ground after he was almost hit with a high inside pitch in the top of the six inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on July 26, 2014 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
X-Factor: Hanley Ramirez.
He’s never played an inning in the outfield, and is getting thrown to the wolves in the first year of a four year, $88 million deal by getting put in front of the Green Monster. Ramirez is 31, has become injury-prone in his older years, and his performance at the plate has been inconsistent at best. Will the Red Sox be getting the guy who went 20/20 while hitting .257/.322/.437 with the Marlins and Dodgers in 2012? Will they get the 20/10 MVP candidate who hit .345/.402/.638 in 86 games with the Dodgers in 2013? Will they get the solid middle of the lineup force who hit .283/.369/.448 with just 13 homers in 2014? The possible outcomes for Ramirez are all across the board, and his performance with Boston fascinates me.
Also, what will the Red Sox do if Ramirez struggles in left? They can’t move him to DH because of David Ortiz. They can’t move him to third because of fellow free agent Pablo Sandoval. They could move him to short, but they’d risk torpedoing the development of Xander Bogaerts, who struggled at times in his 2014 rookie season, but also showed flashes of brilliance (see his numbers in April, May, and September). Filling the hole in left won’t be an issue because of the presence of Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, and Shane Victorino, but finding a spot for Ramirez in case he struggles is a much more difficult task.
BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 27: Xander Bogaerts #2 and Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees 10-4 in a game at Fenway Park on September 27, 2014 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Key Question: Is Boston’s youth movement ready to handle the load?
While the Red Sox have plenty of veterans on their club (hey David, Dustin, Shane, Pablo, Hanley, and so on), they’re banking a lot on the success of top prospects. While Rusney Castillo will be the lone rookie that looks like he’ll have a spot on the Opening Day roster, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are each 22 and have a total of 857 plate appearances in the majors between them. Christian Vazquez is 24, and he received just 201 plate appearances in 2014. That’s nearly half of Boston’s projected starting offense, with a total of 1,098 plate appearances in the majors between them.
The Red Sox aren’t simply going to hang these guys out to dry, but if they struggle, where do the Sox go from there? In 2014, when Bogaerts was struggling at short, Boston gave Stephen Drew a trial…and sent him packing to the Yankees after he was a disaster over 39 games. With better veterans to supplant their young regulars in 2015, the drop off likely won’t be as harsh if one of them struggles. However, while growing pains are expected, the Red Sox probably won’t have much tolerance for prolonged struggles.
BOSTON, MA – OCTOBER 30: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox holds up the MVP trophy following a 6-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals in Game Six of the 2013 World Series at Fenway Park on October 30, 2013 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario: The Red Sox have a talented enough team to win the World Series. But then again, they did last season too, and we all know how that turned up. If Boston gets at least average production from their four inexperienced starters on offense, their veteran hitters stay healthy and continue to produce, and their pitching staff doesn’t fall apart, the Red Sox could plow through a down AL East en route to another pennant.
Worst Case Scenario: Another last place finish would be unacceptable for the Red Sox, but could it actually happen? Sure, and I don’t think you need to stretch much to envision that happening. All it takes is the rotation not living up to standards, injuries claiming the veteran hitters, and the younger hitters experiencing struggles, and the Red Sox could be a truly dreadful team. Now, I don’t think that’s a very *likely* outcome, but it’s a definite possibility.
Realistic Prediction: This is a tough team to get a read on, simply because of how many new parts will be in place this year. Five new offensive starters are in place, and the only member of the April rotation that returns is Clay Buchholz. Boston’s refusal to keep a struggling, veteran team together following a World Championship is commendable, and they did a pretty good job tearing down the crumbling pillars of their 2013 squad to rebuild for the future. I don’t think I’m going have a good idea of what lies in Boston’s immediate future until May 1st, but right now, I could see them finishing anywhere in the AL East from first to last. I know it’s a vague prognostication, but given the circumstances, I think it’s justified.
