2015 season preview: Atlanta Braves

2014 started so well for the Atlanta Braves. They stormed out of the gate with a 17-8 start, and quickly took over first place in the NL East. But unlike in 2013, the Washington Nationals didn’t struggle early, and kept pace. The Braves never had a lead of more than 3.5 games. Less than a week after the All-Star Game, Atlanta fell out of first place, and they wouldn’t get back to the top of the division. The team collapsed down the stretch, and GM Frank Wren was fired. The new, John Hart-led regime then gutted the team this winter, and that will likely lead to a bad team in 2015 that’s in a much better position for long-term success in the future.

Depth Chart (as of 2/25)
C: Christian Bethancourt
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Alberto Callaspo
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Chris Johnson
LF: Jonny Gomes
CF: Melvin Upton Jr.
RF: Nick Markakis
SP: Julio Teheran
SP: Alex Wood
SP: Mike Minor
SP: Shelby Miller
SP: Mike Foltynewicz
CL: Craig Kimbrel

New Faces: Zolio Almonte, Manny Banuelos, John Buck, Alberto Callaspo, Matt Capps, Todd Coffey, Mike Foltynewicz, Jonny Gomes, Jason Grilli, Tyrell Jenkins, Jim Johnson, Kelly Johnson, Michael Kohn, Nick Markakis, Shelby Miller, Josh Outman, Eury Perez, Jace Peterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Wandy Rodriguez, Eric Stults, Donnie Veal, Jose Veras, Arodys Vizcaino, Chien-Ming Wang, Eric Young Jr.

Departures: Brandon Beachy, Emilio Bonifacio, David Carpenter, Ryan Doumit, Gavin Floyd, Evan Gattis, Cory Gearrin, David Hale, Aaron Harang, Jason Heyward, Kris Medlen, Tommy La Stella, Gerald Laird, Ramiro Pena, Ervin Santana, Gus Schlosser, Chasen Shreve, Justin Upton, Anthony Varvaro, Jordan Walden

Impact Rookies: Christian Bethancourt is being thrust into the role as Opening Day catcher, though there are still questions as to whether or not he’s ready for the job. In 2014, he hit .248/.274/.274 over 117 major league plate appearances. In AAA, he hit .283/.308/.408 with eight homers over 365 plate appearances. Bethancourt has never really hit all that well throughout his minor league career, and his defense is still a work in progress, but he’s still only 23 and has a cannon for an arm. He’s being thrown into the deep end in 2015.

Atlanta could also gamble with the fifth spot in their rotation and give the job to either Mike Foltynewicz or Manny Banuelos, both of whom were acquired in separate trades this winter. Foltynewicz is a flamethrower that could end up in the bullpen, and worked in that role over 16 games with the Astros last season. He struck out 14 and walked seven over 18 2/3 innings. In 21 appearances (18 starts) in AAA, Foltynewicz struck out 105 and walked 52 in a 102 2/3 innings.

On the other hand, 2014 was Banuelos’ first year since Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2013 season. In 76 2/3 innings over three levels, he struck out 71 and walked 31, so there’s still plenty of work to be done. My guess is that neither starts the year in the rotation, but both are in the majors in one role or another by September.

The other signifcant prospects that could make their way to Atlanta in 2015 are a pair of infielders – Jose Peraza and Jace Peterson. Peraza looks likely to be the future starting second baseman in Atlanta, and the 20-year old is one of the best prospects in baseball. He split 2014 between high-A Lynchburg and AA Mississippi, and hit a ridiculous .339/.364/.441 between the two levels with 60 stolen bases. He’s another guy that could end up in the majors to end the year, but may not start there.

Peterson seems to be a more likely option to spend significant time with the Braves. Acquired from the Padres this winter, the versatile utilityman didn’t hit a lick in the majors with the Padres, but mashed his way to a .306/.406/.464 line in 64 games in AAA. Peterson can play second and third, and fudge it at short, possibly leading to a Martin Prado-esque career in the future.

Position Battles: In Orlando this spring, the fifth starter job is a quagmire. Could stud prospect Mike Foltynewicz, acquired from the Astros in the Evan Gattis trade, get the job? Could another talented prospect, ex-Yankee Manny Banuelos, win the job? How about a veteran non-roster invitee like Wandy Rodriguez, Eric Stults, or Chien-Ming Wang? At the end of the day, I’d probably end up leaning towards one of the veterans, simply because of the economics involved.

The Braves also have a couple of spots left in their bullpen. Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, Craig Kimbrel, and James Russell are all locks, and Luis Avilan and Josh Outman look like favorites to earn two of the final three spots. The Braves trucked in plenty of veterans to complete for roles in the pen, including Matt Capps, Todd Coffey, Michael Kohn, and Donnie Veal. Atlanta also has a trio of talented young arms that could earn spots in the pen  – Juan Jaime, Ian Thomas, and Arodys Vizcaino. To say there will be “a competition” this spring for bullpen roles is an understatement.

And then there’s the bench, where the only sure thing is new backup catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Veterans Kelly Johnson and Eric Young Jr. will compete for spots, as will 2014 holdover Phil Gosselin new acquisitions Zolio Almonte, Eury Perez, and Dian Toscano. Throw in a few more holdover candidates, Todd Cunningham, Jace Peterson, and Joey Terdoslavich, and you’re looking at a situation that could get chaotic, but will be very interesting to watch. Needless to say, there are plenty of balls in the air with the Braves reserve players this season.

Injury Concerns: Atlanta didn’t exactly go all-in trying to improve their club in 2015, but one of those “win now” moves was the signing of right fielder Nick Markakis to a four-year deal. Markakis had neck surgery this offseason, and while he’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, predicting a swift and full recovery from neck surgery isn’t exactly an easy thing to do. Reliever Shae Simmons, expected to compete for one of the final bullpen spots, won’t pitch in 2015 following Tommy John surgery earlier this year.

Starter Mike Minor missed the start of 2014 following offseason urethra surgery (seriously), and struggled off and on during the year with a shoulder injury influenced by the surgery. Starter Alex Wood, a Tommy John survivor in the past, was shut down in September because of concerns about his arm, but he’s apparently good to go. Speaking of Tommy John, nearly every pitcher the Braves have acquired this winter has had the surgery in the past. I’m not saying they’re *all* going to blow out again, but there might be a little more concern going forward about the usage of guys like Jason Grilli and prospect Manny Banuelos.

Most Important Player: B.J. Upton Melvin Upton Jr.
Upton’s two years in Atlanta have been a disaster, but he actually did show some signs of progression in 2014, homering 12 times and stealing 20 bases while cutting his strikeout rate and improving his triple slash across the board. At 30-years old, he’s probably not a 30 steal guy anymore, but he’s still young enough where the Braves could extract some value from him.

Prior to his disastrous run with the Braves, Upton’s worst year was his 2009 with the Rays, when he hit .241/.313/.373 with 11 homers and 42 stolen bases. Even if you cut the steal total in half, wouldn’t every Braves fan and executive jump for joy over a year like that from Upton? And hey, if he’s able to at least provide some value to the team in 2015, maybe the Braves could move him and the last two years on his contract next winter for something resembling a return as opposed to…you know, nothing at all.

X-Factor: Andrelton Simmons
Simmons has been a major league regular for two and a half seasons, and we’ve seen three different players at the plate (while also seeing a consistent, all-world defender at shortstop). In 2012, Simmons played just 49 games in the majors, and was an above average hitter. Over a full season, Simmons would be an MVP candidate with that .289/.335/.416 stat line and his impeccable defense. In 2013, he hit .248/.296/.396 – not great, but more than manageable, especially when you look at his 17 home runs.

Then, there’s 2014, when Simmons hit .244/.286/.331, which is barely passable, even with that great defense. As a comparison, B.J. Upton had a higher OBP and slugging percentage than Simmons in 2014. The possibilities for Simmons are endless right now, and while all of those have him as a starter because of his glove, the way his bat progresses will determine whether he’s an elite player, a solid player, or a passable player.

Key Question: What’s the next step for Atlanta’s rebuilding process?
Atlanta went about their rebuild in an interesting way. Instead of completely tearing down the foundation of the team, they kept some cornerstones in place, including Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, the rotation trio of Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, and Alex Wood, and curiously, closer Craig Kimbrel.

But the Braves didn’t exactly fill their holes with young talent this winter – they mainly went with veterans, including Nick Markakis, Jonny Gomes, Alberto Callaspo, Jason Grilli, and Jim Johnson. The only new, young players immediately expected to play a role on the 2015 team are starter Shelby Miller (who already has 370 major league innings under his belt) and catcher Christian Bethancourt (who got 117 plate appearances in 2014 with the Braves).

What’s next for the Braves? The only two of those veterans signed past 2015 are Markakis and Grilli, though Gomes does have an option for 2016. Are the Braves going to keep moving forward with their youth movement next winter while trying desperately to shed the contracts of Melvin Upton Jr. and Chris Johnson? Is Atlanta going to fill gaps with low-priced veterans once again? Will the Braves cut bait on some of these veterans in 2015 if they struggle and promote the young talent?

Best Case Scenario: If everything goes right for the Braves, their offense rebounds, their pitching staff thrives, and their defense is able to hold the fort around Andrelton Simmons…are they even a playoff team? The National League has two fantastic teams, one great team, and maybe six that will be good to great…and the Braves aren’t in one of those three categories. It would take a lot of good fortune for Atlanta to break into one of those three tiers, let alone win 86 games or so and finish with a Wild Card.

Worst Case Scenario: The bottom completely falls out. The offense inexplicably gets worse. The rotation is beset with injuries. The veteran bullpen falls apart around Craig Kimbrel, and he’s dealt in July. The Braves go into the offseason with a top five overall pick in the draft, wondering just what in the hell they can do next.

Realistic Prediction: I think this team’s ceiling in 2015 is .500, as unlikely as that finish may be for them. The Braves could climb as high as second in the NL East, but that finish would require both the Marlins and Mets to fail…neither of which is exactly off the table. This season isn’t about a win/loss record for Atlanta, it’s about the progression of their young talent. If the Braves lose 88 games, I really don’t think anyone will care as long as players like Simmons, Bethancourt, Miller, Minor, Wood, Teheran, Folynewicz, and maybe even Peraza continue to blossom as future major league building blocks.