It wasn’t supposed to be this way for the Toronto Blue Jays. After a depressing 2013, the Jays played like they were shot out of a cannon to start the 2014 season. Their season peaked on June 6th, when Toronto was 38-24, six games clear of the Yankees in the AL East. It was all downhill from there – Toronto scuffled their way to a 42-53 mark after that, better than just four AL teams. A season that started with such hope ended with such disappointment, and the future is murky.
Preseason Prediction: The AL East is loaded, probably the best division in MLB. The Blue Jays’ four division rivals would likely have to collapse for Toronto to have any chance at the postseason. And even then, the Jays can’t suffer any major injuries to their roster. Can this team win the 92 games it took to qualify for the playoffs last year? It seems very doubtful, especially with all of the pitching questions facing Toronto. And that’s not even considering the competition throughout the league that will contend for the AL’s two wild-card bids. A .500 finish or close to it is likely the best that the Blue Jays can hope for this season. (Ian Casselberry, March 17th)
What Went Right: Jose Bautista stayed healthy and continued to play like an MVP candidate, smashing 35 homers while hitting .290/.409/.535. A strained quad knocked Edwin Encarnacion out for a month, and it took him until September to get hot again, but he still has managed to hit .272/.359/.561 with 34 homers. Jose Reyes had an adequate year, and got his annual DL stint out of the way in April. Melky Cabrera played quite well before a broken finger ended his year in September. Dioner Navarro was a massive upgrade on J.P. Arencibia behind the plate. Toronto got plenty of production from their bench, including guys like The Immortal Juan Francisco, Danny Valencia, Anthony Gose, Munenori Kawsaki, and Steve Tolleson.
Somewhat shockingly, the Jays also got a solid and healthy year out of their rotation, with five different pitchers all making at least 20 starts. That crop was led by rookie Marcus Stroman, who was downright dominant at times. Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey were their usual dependable selves, while Drew Hutchison also showed flashes of brilliance. Toronto’s bullpen was also pretty good, with Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, Aaron Sanchez, Chad Jenkins, and journeyman castoff Todd Redmond all pitching quit well in extended stints in relief.
What Went Wrong: You can sum up Toronto’s issues in one word: health. While Encarnacion, Reyes, and Cabrera all had relatively abbreviated DL stints, the same wasn’t true for Brett lwrie and Adam Lind. Lawrie played in just 70 games, with just one of those coming after the All-Star Break. Lind was an offensive force when he was in the lineup, but has managed just 92 games so far thanks to foot and back injuries. Colby Rasmus missed a month with a strained hamstring, and then began to lose playing time in his walk year thanks to offensive struggles. He’s hitting just .225/.287/.448 this year. Veteran utilityman Maicier Izturis was a complete nonfactor this season because of a torn knee ligament suffered in April. Brandon Morrow, never a paragon of health, threw just 32 1/3 innings, split between the rotation and the bullpen. Former closer Sergio Santos threw just 21 innings, and the 8.57 ERA he had on the mound wasn’t very reassuring. 2013 AL All-Star Steve Delabar had an ERA a hair under 5.00, and was banished to the minors in June.
Most Surprising Player: JUAN FRANCISCO! Nah, I’m just kidding, I wouldn’t do that to you. How about Drew Hutchison? The 24-year old was a top ten prospect for the Jays in 2012, but Tommy John surgery that summer wiped out the remainder of his 2012 and most of his 2013. This year, he’s made 31 starts and pitched 179 2/3 innings, the highest total in his pro career. While his 4.51 ERA isn’t too pretty, Hutchison has managed to strike out 176 hitters while walking only 59. The thing about Hutchison is that he’s a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher, which isn’t a good thing given that he plays his home games in the hitter’s haven that is Rogers Centre. Case in point, Hutchison has allowed 11 homers at home this year compared to 12 on the road…but he’s thrown nearly 50 more innings away from Toronto than he has inside the dome.
Most Disappointing Player: Colby Rasmus kept his power streak from last year intact…and lost just about everything else. Seriously – his ISO dropped from .225 to .223 (which is barely a blip on the radar), but he performed worse in nearly every category you can think of. His entire triple slash fell, his walk rate dipped, his strikeout rate rose, his defensive metrics went into the toilet, he logged the least amount of plate appearances in his career…put it all together, and Rasmus is at just 0.6 fWAR this season, barely edging out 2011 for the worst mark of his career. That’s not what you want to see happen the year before you hit free agency. Some team could get a bargain on the 28-year old.
The Future: Toronto brings back most of their team for next season, but Cabrera, Rasmus, and closer Casey Janssen are all free agents, while Morrow, Lind, Dustin McGowan, and J.A. Happ all have options for 2015. This could be the beginning of a changing of the guard for the Blue Jays, because Bautista, Dickey, and Encarnacion will be free agents after 2016 (assuming all of their options for 2016 are exercised), and Buehrle and Navarro will hit the market after next season. The Blue Jays have plenty of talented young prospects on the farm to try and make a run at a playoff berth with, but they might need to supplement that young talent with free agents. It’s going to be a very interesting offseason north of the border, and Alex Anthopolous really has his work cut out for him.
