Welcome to the offseason! Technically, baseball’s winter hiatus began as soon as Pablo Sandoval caught Salvador Perez’s pop-up in foul territory for the final out of the 2014 season. But shopping season begins on Tuesday (Nov. 4), when free agents are free to sign with any MLB club.
The 2015 free agent market has been eagerly anticipated with three ace-caliber starters among the top players available. Teams in need of bullpen help — which is just about every one of them — should find plenty of arms to add to their relief corps. It’s not a great year to find an impact hitter, but there are several bats that could make significant contributions with the right team.
So who are the best players available on the open market and how do they stack up? This is one opinion of how the 2015 free agent class should be ranked, at least its first 30 players.
1. Max Scherzer: This is why Scherzer turned down the Tigers’ six-year, $144 million extension offer in March. He and agent Scott Boras knew an even larger payday was possible — and likely — with multiple teams bidding for him on the open market. At the very least, he’ll probably get a seventh year on that contract. Scherzer, 30, did nothing to hurt his value, following up his 2013 AL Cy Young Award-winning season with an 18-5 record, 3.15 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 220.1 innings.
2. Jon Lester: Is Lester or Scherzer the top starting pitcher in free agency? It depends on a team’s preference. Lester, 30, had more buzz during the season because the Red Sox made him available at the July 31 trade deadline, and he was excellent in 11 starts for the A’s, compiling a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts. Overall, Lester went 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 219.2 innings. He does have a bit more mileage than Scherzer, throwing 357 more innings to this point in his career.
3. James Shields: Shields will be the cheaper alternative for any team seeking a No. 1 starter. In a different year, he would probably be the top pitcher available. Maybe Shields isn’t a true ace, but showed he can lead a rotation during his past two seasons with the Royals. The 32-year-old doesn’t have the strikeout stuff Scherzer and Lester do, but will provide a team with 33 to 34 starts and throw 220 innings. He’ll also cost two to three fewer years in a contract and likely $5 million less per season.
4. Hanley Ramirez: Ramirez, 30, is the top free agent position player, but his market is a little bit uncertain. Is he still capable of playing shortstop regularly? If the Dodgers believed so, would they have already signed him to a contract extension? Ramirez’s ability to stay healthy through a full season is also in question, making a long-term investment more questionable. He’ll likely be a third baseman in the near-future, but that position is in demand and Ramirez’s bat is still powerful enough to suit that position.
5. Pablo Sandoval: Teams looking for a true third baseman might prefer Sandoval, who’s a far better defender and just as potent a hitter, though perhaps for a bit less power. Additionally, he adds switch-hitting value. Sandoval, 28, is also nearly three years younger than Ramirez, which has to be important for any club considering an expensive long-term contract. Conditioning is certainly a concern, especially as he gets older, but Sandoval played in 157 games for the Giants this season and is surprisingly agile for a man of his size.
6. Victor Martinez: Martinez will be 36 when he reports to spring training next year, but he’s coming off the best season of his 12-year major league career. In 641 plate appearances, he batted .335 with a .974 OPS, 32 home runs and 103 RBI. Martinez is the best hitter available and reportedly seeks a four-year deal because of it. Unfortunately, he doesn’t bring any defensive value, having spent his past three seasons with the Tigers almost exclusively as a designated hitter. That limits his market, unless a team believes he can be a full-time first baseman.
7. Yasmany Tomas: MLB teams looking for a power hitter with major upside will look toward the 23-year-old Cuban outfielder as a significant addition to their lineup. Tomas is likely too big to play center field regularly in the major leagues, but with potential 30-homer power, he’d fit nicely into a corner outfield spot. With that kind of power and athleticism, it’s not difficult to imagine Tomas getting a contract surpassing the seven-year, $72.5 million deal Rusney Castillo received from the Red Sox.
8. Melky Cabrera: Cabrera is the best proven outfielder on the market and coming off a strong 2014 season with the Blue Jays. In 621 plate appearances, the 31-year-old hit .301 with an .808 OPS, 35 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBI. That should address concerns as to whether or not PEDs aided his performance. He’s not a great defender in left field, but with his bat, Cabrera should get a five-year contract on the market with an annual salary of $14 million to $15 million.
9. Russell Martin: There just aren’t that many good catchers in MLB, so one of Martin’s caliber being available puts him in very high demand. Coming off arguably the best season of his career — batting .290 with a .402 on-base percentage and .832 OPS — certainly doesn’t hurt his market value. Martin also provides strong defense behind the plate in terms of blocking pitches, throwing out basestealers and framing the strike zone. His reputation as a clubhouse leader and stabilizing guide for a pitching staff makes him even more appealing.
10. Nelson Cruz: Cruz, 34, is looking for the contract he didn’t get last winter, after a PED suspension and qualifying offer from the Rangers diminished his value on the open market. Hitting 40 home runs with 108 RBI, 32 doubles and an .859 OPS while helping the Orioles to a division title should draw heavy interest from any team looking for an impact power bat, something that’s increasingly hard to find in baseball. Prospective suitors may have to consider whether hitting in a park other than Camden Yards could affect his production, however.
11. Kenta Maeda: This right-hander is the other international free agent of consequence, if the Hiroshima Carp decides to post him. With the expected bidding for Maeda’s services, he will almost certainly be available. Maeda may not be Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka in terms of strikeout ability, but if he can be as effective as Hisashi Iwakuma or Hiroki Kuroda and provide 200 innings, several teams will want that at the top of their rotation. In 26 starts last year, Maeda had a 2.56 ERA with 154 strikeouts and 40 walks in 179 innings.
12. Ervin Santana: Like Cruz, Santana will be seeking the contract he didn’t get last winter because teams didn’t want to give up a first-round draft pick to sign him after the Royals extended him a qualifying offer. It’s possible he’ll find himself in a similar position this offseason, as the Braves are expected to tender the same one-year qualifying offer. But Santana put himself in better position to earn a multi-year contract by compiling a 3.95 ERA in 196 innings, with an increased strikeout rate of 8.2 per nine frames.
13. Andrew Miller: This might be placing Miller a bit too high, but I believe he’ll be the most heavily pursued relief pitcher in free agency. The 29-year-old had a phenomenal 2014 season, striking out 103 batters in 62.1 innings and compiling a 2.02 ERA. He was equally impressive in the postseason, allowing no runs and one hit in five appearances (covering 7.1 innings). With the demand for effective middle relief, Miller is in position to get a four-year contract. But will he seek a closer role with his next team?
14. Aramis Ramirez: Ramirez might not be available if he opts to pick up his side of a $14 million mutual option with the Brewers. But he’ll likely turn that down and pursue a multi-year contract in free agency. Ramirez, 36, is an average defensive third baseman, but still provides plenty of offense at the position. Last season, he hit .285 with a .757 OPS, 15 home runs and 66 RBI in 531 plate appearances. Several MLB clubs would love that sort of production at third base.
(UPDATE: The Brewers announced on Nov. 3 that Ramirez did indeed accept his half of that $14 million option.)
15. David Robertson: Robertson is the top free agent closer available, and will appeal to any club seeking a capital-C closer with experience pitching the ninth inning. Last season, the 29-year-old right hander struck out 96 batters in 64.1 innings, compiling a 3.08 ERA and 39 saves in 44 opportunities. Robertson will cost teams a first-round draft pick, as the Yankees are expected to extend him a qualifying offer, and he’s only really been a closer for one full season. But certain teams will be happy to pay for a proven ninth-inning reliever.
16. Brandon McCarthy: McCarthy, 31, was having a terrible year in Arizona, going 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts. However, after being traded to the Yankees, the right-hander turned his season around and revived his free agent value largely by working the cutter back into his arsenal. In 14 starts, McCarthy went 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 90.1 innings. He also stayed healthy, making a career-high 32 starts, quieting what would have been a pertinent question about his long-term value.
17. Francisco Liriano: Concerns about his durability could prevent Liriano, 31, from getting anything more than a three-year contract. After looking like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter in 2013, the left-hander probably established himself as a No. 2 or No. 3 with his performance this past season. Though Liriano has strikeout stuff, he also issues quite a few walks and hasn’t thrown more than 165 innings since 2010. Teams may also question how well he can pitch in a home ballpark other than Pittsburgh’s PNC Park.
18. Adam LaRoche: With 26 home runs, 92 RBI and an .817 OPS in 586 plate appearances, LaRoche could be a nice fit for any team seeking left-handed power at first base or designated hitter. (Though playing him at DH would waste a good glove.) Fortunately for the 35-year-old, plenty of clubs have that need. LaRoche hit only .201 against left-handers last season, which could be a concern, but he would still get the majority of time at first base or DH. That power is still too good to ignore for teams looking for middle-of-the-order pop.
19. Chase Headley: Is this too high a ranking for a player who batted .243 with a .700 OPS last season? Perhaps. But Headley, 30, hit .262 with a .768 OPS in 224 plate appearances with the Yankees after he was acquired from the Padres. He also provides outstanding defense at third base, which adds to his value and makes him a cheaper alternative to the teams that lose out on Sandoval and Ramirez in free agency. Headley might end up as the best bargain on the market.
20. Colby Rasmus: Rasmus, 28, is essentially a one-man center fielder market as the only viable full-time player available at that position. This shows how thin the free agent market for center fielders is. Despite hitting 18 homers and slugging .448, Rasmus only batted .225 with a .735 OPS. He also struck out 124 times in 376 plate appearances and hit .195 against left-handers. Additionally, he’s inconsistent defensively, costing his team nine runs more than the average center fielder last season, according to FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Rating.
21. Jason Hammel: Hammel’s market may be hurt by his performance after being traded from the Cubs to the A’s. In 13 appearances with Oakland (12 starts), the right-hander went 2-6 with a 4.26 ERA, striking out 7.2 batters and walking 2.8 per nine innings. However, National League teams might take note of how Hammel, 32, pitched with the Cubs. In 17 starts, he compiled an 8-5 record and 2.98 ERA with 104 strikeouts and 24 walks in 108.2 innings. Regardless, several clubs will look at Hammel as a mid-rotation starter.
22. Asdrubal Cabrera: Like Hanley Ramirez, Cabrera faces some questions as to whether or not he’s a starting MLB shortstop anymore. (He was charged with -7 Defensive Runs Saved this year.) After being traded from the Indians to the Nationals, he played second base, which is probably where he’s best suited. However, with the scarcity of quality shortstops, Cabrera might find someone willing to take a chance because he has some pop in his bat. Despite hitting only .241 with a .694 OPS last season, he still slugged 31 doubles and 14 homers in 616 plate appearances.
23. Jake Peavy: Peavy did not have a strong postseason, especially in Game 6 of the World Series, during which he couldn’t even get through two innings. The 33-year-old may not be a guy who can pitch five or six innings in a playoff game anymore, but he still has plenty of value during the regular season. Peavy made 32 starts this year, compiling a 3.73 ERA and throwing 202 innings for the Red Sox and Giants. For a mid-to-back-rotation starter, that’s the type of performance many teams are seeking, especially if they play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
24. Nick Markakis: Buying Markakis out for $2 million, rather than picking up his $17.5 million club option, obviously says something about what the Orioles think he’s worth. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t still sign a multi-year contract with Baltimore, but the 30-year-old isn’t an $18 million per year player. He had a good 2014 season, batting .275 with a .729 OPS, and is extremely durable, playing in 155 games this year. Markakis is a nice fit with a team looking for a solid, top-of-the-order bat who can get on base, but he’s not an impact hitter.
25. Michael Morse: Morse was one of the best bargain free agent signings of 2014, hitting .279 with an .811 OPS, 32 doubles 16 home runs and 61 RBI in 482 plate appearances for the Giants. An oblique injury limited him to 132 games, continuing the concern that Morse is injury-prone. But hitting for power with a team that plays in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park should help his market value, especially with the scarcity of right-handed power throughout MLB. However, San Francisco opting for Travis Ishikawa in left field through most of the postseason indicates that Morse is better suited as a DH with his next team.
26. Michael Cuddyer: Rockies owner Dick Monfort loves Cuddyer, but if he lets new general manager Jeff Bridich do his job, the smart decision is to let him go. Cuddyer will be 36 by opening day next year and played in only 49 games last season due to hamstring and shoulder injuries. When healthy, however, he hit .332 with a .955 OPS, 15 doubles, 10 homers and 31 RBI in 203 plate appearances. (It’s also worth noting that he hit .282 with a .734 OPS away from Coors Field this year.) Teams looking for an alternative to Victor Martinez might find their guy in Cuddyer.
27. Norichika Aoki: Should Aoki be higher on this list? It’s possible he’s being penalized for a lack of power (only one home run in 549 plate appearances last season), but the 32-year-old could be an excellent piece for a team in need of outfield help and a top-of-the-order, on-base threat. Aoki had a .349 on-base percentage in 2014 with 17 stolen bases in 25 attempts. Couple that with good defense in right field (despite strange routes to fly balls), and Aoki should be a popular, relatively inexpensive free agent target.
28. Justin Masterson: Prior to the 2014 season, Masterson was probably viewed as a top-five starting pitcher in free agency. But he had a terrible year, going 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA. Masterson was especially bad after being traded to the Cardinals, compiling a 7.04 ERA in nine appearances and getting left off the postseason roster. Additionally, Masterson’s strikeout rate decreased while his walk rate increased, two trends that won’t help his market value. However, that could lead to a bargain signing. Masterson may want a short, one-year deal, looking to rebuild his value and re-enter free agency after next season.
29. Luke Gregerson: Setup relievers figure to be extremely popular targets this offseason, and Gregerson has been one of the best in MLB during his six-year career. His strikeout rate went from 8.7 per nine innings in 2013 to 7.3 last season, which raises an eyebrow. But Gregerson also decreased his already low walk rate, issuing fewer than two per nine frames. He may have benefited from pitching in San Diego’s Petco Park for most of his career, something MLB clubs will have to consider. But a team looking for a seventh- or eighth-inning reliever should be interested.
30. Alex Rios: Coming off a year during which he hit .280 with a .709 OPS, four home runs and 54 RBI, Rios is a notch — maybe two — below Cruz, Morse and Cuddyer among free agent outfielders. Yet his 30 doubles and 17 stolen bases show that he could be a less expensive alternative to Aoki who could provide some more power, based on previous seasons. Rios also tends to stay healthy, which has some value. He may be another player looking for a short-term deal to rebuild his value. But a team needing corner outfield help with some speed might find a bargain here.
