The Tigers have the edge when it comes to offense and starting pitching. The Orioles have the edge in the bullpen and on defense. Something has to give in this ALDS matchup, and Baltimore is hoping that consistency can overtake star power. Here are five things to watch in this series.
Expect some homers.
The Baltimore Orioles surprisingly ran away with the American League East thanks to Nelson Cruz proving to be one of the most valuable additions in baseball this season. Along with Cruz’s 40 bombs, once DFA’d Steve Pearce added 21 dingers in under 400 plate appearances and infielder Jonathan Schoop popped 16 bombs despite only having a 65 wRC+. While most of the Oriole offense lacks both patience and speed, they can certainly hit for the long ball. This is not a “traditionally” good offense, but it certainly is an offense that can put runs on the board in a hurry.
Detroit had a surprise slugger this year as well in J.D. Martinez. He was supposed to breakout a few years ago, when rumors of him working out with Jose Bautista had many thinking he would in fact be the next Jose Bautista and move from platoon-type to star almost overnight. It did not happen that way, but after being released by Houston earlier this year Martinez hit 23 home runs in under 500 plate appearances for the Tigers. Victor Martinez was arguably the game’s best hitter this season and Miguel Cabrera is Miguel Cabrera. This team can mash.
Each team’s pitching staff is an opposite of the other.
The Tigers have an incredible starting staff. The Orioles have a hum-ho staff led by Chris Tillman. It is not that the Orioles have a bad rotation, it just is full of seemingly mid-rotation types along with a potential budding star in Kevin Gausman, but he is not that star quite yet. The Tigers on the other hand have a rotation full of ex-Cy Young award winners.
In the bullpen, things change. The Tigers have struggled with their bullpen all season long, which has caused them to put injury-plagued three WAR pitcher Anibal Sanchez in the bullpen. The group of Sanchez, Joakim Soria, Joba Chamberlain, and Joe Nathan has potential but is far from a rock given most of their past struggles or their lack of experience in the bullpen (Sanchez). I feel like this can be said every single October, but the bullpen could be the big flaw that leads to an early exit for the Tigers.
For Baltimore, lefty Zach Britton proved that failed starters can have a life in the bullpen once again. Britton’s incredible ground ball tendencies allowed him to save 37 games with a 1.65 ERA. Darren O’Day and Andrew Miller bring sub-2.00 ERA’s to the table as well, so if the Orioles are able to slug enough and keep their team into the ballgame late in the game, they have a sincere and distinct advantage late in games.
+49 and -65.
Those are each team’s Defensive Runs Saved totals. Can you guess which is which? Unsurprisingly, the Orioles are awesome defensively while the Tigers have been miserable on that side of the ball. The Orioles are missing ace defender Manny Machado due to injury, but having J.J. Hardy at the shortstop position helps everything out tremendously. Alejandro De Aza, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis makes for a solid and balanced outfield. The Orioles have also been going with defense-first players at second and third base in Jonathan Schoop and Ryan Flaherty.
Defense has long been an issue in Detroit, and this year is no different. Even though they moved Miguel Cabrera across the diamond and added Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis, the unit as a whole is one of the worst in the league. While J.D. Martinez has been a nice bat, he is a butcher in the outfield, and a midseason trade of Austin Jackson led to Davis being moved off of left field and into center. It does not help that Torii Hunter is one of the oldest players in the game and Nick Castellanos has been a statue at third base, either.
Which Justin Verlander will show up?
Justin Verlander has seen his strikeout rate decline rapidly over the past few seasons, and his ERA has climbed as a result. Verlander will get the nod in game two over David Price, and if the Orioles are able to take game one against Max Scherzer, that means a very big burden will be being put on the shoulders of a starter who pitched to an ERA 17% below league average this season.
We all know Verlander can turn it around at any time, which is why the Tigers were willing to stick with him for 200 innings and start him in the playoffs despite having other options. Even so, his strikeout decline coincides with a velocity decline. He was throwing his fastball at an average of 95 miles per hour back in 2011, and now it has dropped to just over 92 miles per hour. The fact that his results have dropped as quickly as his velocity has makes me think the Orioles are going to come out and have a good deal of success against Verlander in game two.
Will the Tigers be able to keep the Oriole role players in check?
Ever since Buck Showaleter took over in Baltimore, it seems like role players have come out and performed far above expectations. The Orioles have a decent mix of bench options heading into the post-season and while they have been struck with injuries to their third baseman (Machado) and catcher (Matt Wieters), along with the PED suspension to Chris Davis, the team has been able to get enough out of players like Pearce and newcomer Alejandro De Aza to not look like a depleted offense heading into the post-season.
The key for Detroit, in my mind, will not be whether they can stop Adam Jones or Nelson Cruz at the plate. I believe it will be whether they can shut down the defensive-minded players like Hardy, Caleb Joseph, Jonathan Schoop, and Ryan Flaherty. The Oriole lineup gets rather week past the five hitter, so if the Tiger starters are able to do what they are supposed to do against the bottom part of the lineup they could put their bullpen into better positions to succeed.
