There weren't many questions about the Giants in 2013, and the team fell apart. There were a lot of questions about the Giants in 2012, and they won the World Series. So clearly, questions don't tell us much of anything about potential struggles. Naturally, there are a few questions about the Giants going into 2014, but I'm not sure how significant any of them will be.
Will the real Hunter Pence please stand up?
Pence will turn 31 in April, and earned himself a five-year, $90 million contract from the Giants this winter. In 2013, Pence hit .283/.339/.483 with 27 homers and 22 stolen bases, both of which were career-high numbers. But in 2012, Pence struggled terribly in a year split between the Phillies and Giants, hitting a career-worst .253/.319/.425 with 24 homers and just five stolen bases.
The player that Pence was in 2013 (and in 2011, which he split between the Astros and Phillies) is worth the average of $18 million per year he'll earn for the next five years. The Hunter Pence of 2012 isn't worth that contract.
So…which Pence will the Giants get this year? Will the Pence who formed a powerful trio with Buster Posey and Brandon Belt show up again this year and keep the Giants offense ticking like a well-tuned machine? Or will Pence start showing his age and struggle to be a force in the middle of the Giants lineup? San Francisco is heavily committed to Pence in 2014 and beyond, and if he's not an All-Star level player, that contract will start looking bad sooner rather than later.
Will Tim Lincecum's bubble finally burst?
Since winning back to back Cy Young awards in 2008 and 2009, Tim Lincecum's career has been on a downward slide. He bottomed out in 2012 with a 5.18 ERA in 186 innings, but slightly rebounded in 2013 thanks to a drop in his walk rate and some better luck on batted balls.
The Giants re-signed Lincecum to a two-year deal this offseason, and 2014 will go a long way towards proving his future value for a possible longer deal after this one expires. If he pitches like he has over the last two years during this deal, Lincecum will fall into the level of guys like Edinson Volquez, scraping by on one year deals and looking to recapture that past magic. If Lincecum somehow regains his prior form…well, the Giants will be in a great place this year, and Lincecum will be in line for a huge payday after 2015 – or maybe even before on a contract extension.
But really, Lincecum has somehow stayed relatively healthy during his struggles. That seems bound to end at one point in the near future as his velocity continues to fall. Lincecum has been ear-marked for an injury since being drafted out of Washington in 2006, and that injury has somehow not come yet. Will 2014 be the year?
Can Brandon Belt make the leap?
The career progression of Brandon Belt so far has been fun to watch. His OPS has increased every year, topping out at .841 last year. Belt's home run total a year ago was also a career high at 17, while his strikeout rate has fallen over each year of his career. While his home run total was near the bottom of the pack for regular first baseman, his OPS was in the top ten.
Progressions are obviously not linear and not the same for each player, and no one is saying that Belt is going to turn himself into the reincarnation of Albert Pujols. But after a slow start to 2013, Belt turned it on in the second half, posting a .915 OPS as a light bulb seemingly went on over his head and Belt hit like an All-Star.
If Belt is able to carry over that progression to 2014, he could end up out-producing Hunter Pence, becoming a top five first baseman in baseball, and possibly setting himself up for a Freddie Freeman-like extension. Even if he doesn't get better, Belt will still be a valuable part of the Giants lineup if hits like he did last year.
