The Padres have enough injury risks on their roster that every key question concerning the team could revolve around staying healthy. Getting 30 starts from Josh Johnson and 130 games from Carlos Quentin would make a tremendous difference for San Diego. But slogging through a full season without suffering any significant injuries is an issue for every MLB team.
There are other questions the Padres will have to deal with this year that aren't related to injury. Answering them positively — or resolving lingering issues — could mean the difference between finishing .500 or better (and possibly contending for a wild-card bid) and again hanging out near the bottom of the NL West. The team's long-term success could also be at stake.
Will Chase Headley be traded?
This is the question that won't go away for the Padres until it's properly addressed. Will San Diego sign its third baseman to a long-term contract extension or trade him before he becomes a free agent after the season? It's the dreaded distraction that all MLB teams and players prefer to avoid after opening day.
Headley agreed to a $10.5 million contract in January to avoid arbitration, but that's just a temporary solution. After hitting 31 home runs with 115 RBI in 2012, Headley's value was at its highest, which may have made contract negotiations difficult for the Padres. Does the team now regret not trading him when it likely could have yielded the best return? A significant regression to 13 homers and 50 RBI with a .250 average last season makes Headley less appealing now.
In addition to that decrease in numbers, San Diego just doesn't have that much leverage with Headley set to become a free agent after the season. With multiple years of club control. other teams may have been willing to give up a larger package in trade. However, unless a team is desperate or feels extremely confident that Headley can be signed to an extension, it's unlikely any teams are going to part with top young talent in a deal.
The one thing that could work in the Padres' favor is the lack of quality third basemen throughout MLB. The Yankees seem like a good fit, eyeing a possible replacement for Alex Rodriguez, but they don't have the prospects that San Diego is surely seeking in return. But the Padres need Headley too and could be in a better negotiating position with him after his poor 2013 season. That is, unless he'd really prefer to play somewhere else once he becomes a free agent.
Is Andrew Cashner ready to be a No. 1 pitcher?
The Padres could potentially have an excellent starting rotation in 2014. But that's contingent on someone stepping up to be the staff's No. 1 pitcher. Josh Johnson could be that guy if he stays healthy and is able to make 30 starts or more. Ian Kennedy might be suited for that role if he can come close to his 2011 performance, during which he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, threw 222 innings and nearly notched 200 strikeouts. However, that seems like a long time ago after two subpar seasons.
Cashner is the one starter with upside, someone who could still develop into an ace-caliber starter for San Diego. In his first full season as a starter after transitioning from the bullpen, the 27-year-old right-hander made 26 starts while compiling a 3.09 ERA and 3.35 FIP. With a 2.2 WAR, he was the Padres' second-best starting pitcher last season. Cashner featured a fastball, slider and changeup, while occasionally throwing a curveball. Could he become a four-pitch pitcher as he becomes more comfortable in his role?
His velocity and strikeout rate both went down, but that could be due to pacing himself as a starter, rather than throwing all-out as a reliever. The Padres have Cashner under club control for the next three seasons, making him a less expensive option than any top free agent starter that could be available for 2015. Besides, San Diego isn't likely to pursue those sorts of pitchers.
Was Will Venable's 2013 season a fluke?
Venable was a breakout surprise for the Padres last year, surging to 22 home runs, 53 RBI and a .796 OPS in 515 plate appearances. He was especially impressive after the All-Star break, batting .315 with a .906 OPS, 14 doubles, 11 homers and 13 stolen bases, definitely answering any questions San Diego may have had about establishing a reliable presence in center field.
But can Venable do it again? At 31 years old, he may indeed be a late bloomer who benefited from the most playing time he's ever received in his career. Yet is there much room for improvement at his age or was this a one-season spike that isn't likely to be repeated? Venable's BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) has been relatively consistent over the past four seasons, so he isn't necessarily ripe for regression. His fly ball percentage increased slightly, so maybe he just got better at hitting the ball over the fence. Petco Park moving in its fences last year may have helped with that too.
Venable will get every opportunity to prove last season wasn't a fluke. Center field is his position to lose after his 2013 performance and there really isn't anyone to challenge him. Cameron Maybin could possibly do so if he stays healthy and hits consistently. But Maybin will surely have to show he can sustain reliable production over a full season before the Padres dared consider moving Venable to right field to accommodate him. Adding Seth Smith to play right field shows that the front office isn't convinced Maybin can be a regular contributor either.
