Saying that the Giants "fell off" in 2013 is misleading. The Giants didn't just fall off, they cratered. Sure, the club finished in third place in the NL West, but they were just two games ahead of the last place Rockies. Really, the most positive thing to say about the 2010 and 2012 World Champions is that they finished 2013 with a winning record against every NL West club. Against other teams in the league, they finished with a .372 winning percentage.
While the Giants may not finish with as bad of a record as they did in 2013 this year, that doesn't mean that this team is necessarily primed for a rebound. I feel that their two biggest weaknesses are a lack of rotation depth and an injury-prone offense.
We'll start with a pop quiz – who was sixth among Giants pitchers in games started? The answer is Chad Gaudin, who made 12 starts and 18 relief appearances for the team. You know, Chad Gaudin, the 30-year old journeyman reliever that had his best season of his career in s small sample last year. Yusmeiro Petit made seven starts for the Giants last year. You know, Yusmeiro Petit, the 29-year old failed former prospect that inexplicably came within one out of throwing a perfect game last year.
This year, Gaudin still lacks a home after failing his physical with the Phillies. Petit is still around, fighting for a spot in San Francisco's bullpen. After him, things get shaky for the Giants' depth in the rotation. Their depth consists of David Huff, who has never been able to thrive in the majors, Mike Kickham, who got thrashed in three major league starts and nine relief appearances last year and has struggled in his last two minor league seasons, Jose De Paula, who has 74 2/3 innings above high-A, and Jason Berken, who has been bouncing around the minors over the last three years.
But how important will depth really be for the Giants? Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain have each never failed to start 30 games in a season since making their full season major league debuts. But that doesn't mean there's no chance of injuries going forward – Lincecum's velocity has been continually dropping over the course of his career. Cain is coming off the worst year of his career, and 2013 was his first season since 2006 that he hasn't notched 200 innings. I'm not saying that either of those two *will* break down, but as the years go on, there's an increased chance of something awful happening to one of them.
The two other Giants starting pitchers are older pitchers with dubious injury histories of their own – Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Hudson. The 36-year old Vogelsong was awful in 2013, and missed time with a broken finger. There's also the chance he turns back into a pumpkin considering his 2013 struggles and lack of a track record before 2011. The new addition to San Francisco's rotation is the 38-year old Hudson, who broke his ankle in a freak accident last year and missed the first month of the 2012 season following back surgery. He's not a lock for 200 innings and 30 starts anymore.
My point is this – if something *does* happen to the Giants' rotation, they're in a very bad place. In 2013, the Giants got 31 starts of excellent baseball from Bumgarner, 62 starts of mediocrity from Lincecum and Cain, and 59 starts ranging from brilliant to blah from Petit, Kickham, Gaudin, Vogelsong, and Barry Zito. They can't have Bumgarner be the only one holding down the fort again next year.
As for the other big Giants weakness, it's a little misleading to say the entire offense is injury-prone. Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Hunter Pence were the team's three best hitters last year, and they all escaped 2013 without suffering any major injuries. But I'm always wary of a team's best hitter being their catcher because of the potential for injury – look what happened to Posey in 2011.
The new collision rule will hopefully prevent situations like that from occurring much this year, but it won't do anything to curb concussions suffered by catchers on foul tips – look at Joe Mauer, who missed the 39 games of 2013 following a concussion, and now isn't even a catcher anymore. All it takes is one seemingly innocuous foul ball to the helmet to derail the Giants offense.
Past Posey, I'm more concerned about the chronic injuries suffered by Pablo Sandoval, Angel Pagan, and new addition Michael Morse. Sandoval has missed time over the last three years with broken hamate bones in both hands, a strained hamstring, and a strained foot. Pagan's injury history is lengthy, and he's missed time with a strained hamstring, a broken rib, a strained groin, a torn labrum, and bone spurs in his elbow. And then there's Morse, who has qualified for a total of one batting title in his career and has cleared 400 plate appearances just one other time in his career.
San Francisco has a number of capable replacements on their bench, led by Gregor Blanco, but those replacements can't come close to filling the shoes of any of those players in the event of an injury. Yes, all of this is very speculative, but considering the histories of these players, it's not too far-fetched.
