When selecting the Padres' four horsemen, is it more important to look toward the future than the present? Players like Chase Headley and Josh Johnson will certainly play major roles in how successful or disappointing San Diego is this season. But looking at potential building blocks for this franchise and taking a longer view seems more reasonable when discussing the Padres. Here are the four players who will have an impact on the Padres this season, but will likely also determine whether the team can contend in the years to come.
Jedd Gyorko
Why Gyorko over Headley? The Padres will certainly be a better team if Headley hits 31 homers with 115 RBI, as he did in 2012. He was supposed to be the big middle-of-the-lineup bat that would produces runs for San Diego, but instead regressed significantly. We also don't know how long Headley will be with the Padres. He could be dealt away by the July 31 trade deadline or leave via free agency after the season.
Meanwhile, Gyorko turned out to be the big run-producer for San Diego, batting anywhere between third and sixth in Bud Black's lineup. He led the team with 23 homers and 63 RBI, despite a .249 average and .745 OPS. Gyorko has plenty of room for improvement in raising his average and on-base percentage. But he's already shown that he can hit for the same kind of power that he demonstrated in the minors.
Best of all for the Padres, the 25-year-old is under club control for five more seasons. Barring a trade, he's not going anywhere and could become the team's top slugger (if he isn't already). He's potential face-of-the-franchise material, especially if he doesn't break down like so many of the Padres' other top hitters have.
Everth Cabrera
Before he had to serve a 50-game PED suspension for his connection to MLB's Biogenesis investigation, Cabrera was having a breakout season for the Padres. He batted .283 with a .736 OPS and 37 stolen bases in 435 plate appearances.
If not for the suspension preventing Cabrera from getting enough PAs to qualify for the NL batting title, his 3.1 WAR would've ranked fifth among the league's shortstops. And had he played in those 50 games, Cabrera surely would've surpassed the 44 steals he led the NL with in 2012.
For a team that doesn't feature big power in the middle of its lineup and plays on a large field like Petco Park, Cabrera's speed is a significant factor at the top of the Padres' batting order. But if the 27-year-old can improve his on-base percentage from last year's .355 (.340 batting first in the lineup), he could become one of the league's best leadoff batters. Cabrera also needs to become more selective in his basestealing, as he was caught 12 times in 49 attempts. However, being aggressive surely aids those stolen base totals.
Cabrera also isn't a great defensive shortstop. According to FanGraphs' UZR, he allowed one run more than the average player at his position. But the Padres don't have anyone who can play better defense at shortstop and no one who can contribute what Cabrera does offensively.
Ian Kennedy
Andrew Cashner could be San Diego's future No. 1 starter. Josh Johnson is capable of pitching like a staff ace. (Though if he does, he'll probably price himself out of the Padres' budget next winter in free agency.)
But both of those pitchers carry some uncertainty into this season. Kennedy is not an ace-caliber starter, per se, but could end up being San Diego's most reliable. Every rotation needs someone who can consistently provide 200 innings (or close to that), and Kennedy has been that guy for the past four seasons.
Is Kennedy capable of putting together another season like he had in 2011, when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, threw 288 innings and nearly notched 200 strikeouts? Not if he doesn't miss more bats and continue to give up loads of hits. But Petco Park should suit Kennedy as a flyball pitcher, and if the Padres' defense make sure fewer balls drop in for hits, he could be successful again. He should remain a top-three starter in San Diego's rotation while under club control for the next two seasons.
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Joaquin Benoit
The Padres featured a relatively strong bullpen last year, finishing sixth in the NL with a 3.39 ERA. However, a .245 opponents' batting average and .693 OPS ranked in the middle of the league. Can San Diego's relief corps be even better this season? That will likely depend on Benoit, who the Padres signed to a two-year, $15.5 million contract that typically goes to closers. Is he expected to supplant Huston Street as the main man in the ninth inning?
Benoit performed well in that role for the Tigers last year, once the team decided to make him the closer, rather than keep him as a setup man. He converted 24 of 26 save opportunities, finishing with a 2.01 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 67 innings. That looks better than Street's 2.70 ERA (which is still very good) and 46 strikeouts in 56.2 innings.
But even if Street isn't a lights-out closer, the Padres' bullpen will likely be better with Benoit as the primary eighth-inning setup reliever that could also be used earlier in a game if necessary. That is, if the Padres manager chooses to use him that way. Luke Gregerson was the top setup man last year, and Black used him almost entirely in the eighth inning unless he was needed in the ninth.
Could there be a closer controversy between Benoit and Street? With Street in the final year of his contract (presuming San Diego doesn't pick up his $7 million option), it doesn't seem likely. Benoit is signed through next season and will probably just take over as closer in a smooth transition. In the meantime, the Padres have a strong tandem for the final two innings of ballgames this year.
