Today, I've touched on some of Houston's brightest and most important young stars – Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, Dexter Fowler, and Jarred Cosart have all had numerous words typed about them by me today. Typically when discussing the four horsemen of each club, we talk about the four players that will have the most significant impact on the club's success or failure in 2014. Because the Astros are building towards the future instead of the present, I thought it would be more prudent to name the four players that intrigue me most this season in Houston.
Brett Oberholtzer
Oberholtzer was the most talented player in a middling package that the Astros received from Atlanta in exchange for Michael Bourn. The 24-year old lefty made his major league debut in 2013 with Houston and was really good over ten starts and three relief appearances, tossing 71 2/3 innings of 2.76 ERA baseball. Only the departed Bud Norris and Erik Bedard had a higher fWAR among Astros pitchers, Oberholtzer came into his own later in the season, allowing just seven runs in 32 1/3 innings over five starts in September, walking seven and striking out 20. The coup de grace was a four-hit complete game shutout on September 1st against the Mariners.
He'll be a member of a rotation that features newly-signed free agents Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams and fellow prospect Jarred Cosart. Oberholtzer was never thought of as highly as Cosart, but he pitched better than him in the majors and minors last year, ERA aside. With Jordan Schafer back in Atlanta, Juan Abreu with the Dodgers, and Paul Clemens spending most of 2013 in the bullpen, Oberholtzer is the last chance for the Astros to salvage this trade with the Braves that was made less than three years ago.
Chris Carter
Carter is an interesting guy. He got his first full season of major league playing time in 2013, and did about what you'd expect – he hit .223/.330/.451 with 29 homers, 70 walks, and 212 strikeouts, the third-highest single season total in major league history. Carter's 27, and he can't play the field very well at all, so he's not really a part of this Houston youth movement – but he still has some use for his Astros team.
He was the Astros' second-best hitter in 2013, behind just potential franchise catcher Jason Castro. His 29 homers ranked 15th in baseball, ahead of guys like Robinson Cano, Domonic Brown, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, and Prince Fielder. Carter also hit well from both sides of the plate, and his offense wasn't just a product of Minute Maid Park – on the road, he hit .279/.360/.565 with 19 homers. What does all that mean? Well, Carter could be a sexy trade chip for Houston in July, especially with Jonathan Singleton coming down the pipe.
Imagine if you're the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are heading into the season without a solid answer at first base. If you're contending once again, wouldn't you at least have to consider dipping into your cache of prospects for Carter, who will enter his first of four arbitration years this offseason? Carter would be cheaper than someone like Kendrys Morales, and could inject some serious power into a lineup that needs some offensive help. And all that does it help the Astros cash in on a player who isn't going to be a serious part of their rebuild. It's win/win!
Matt Dominguez
One of the knocks on Dominguez throughout his young career was his offense. His glove could play every day at third base, but his bat was the question. After a month-long trial in 2013 that saw him hit five homers in 31 games, Dominguez got the bulk of playing time at the hot corner for Houston in 2013. The results were interesting. His glove was fine, as everyone expected. His bat was…well, it was an interesting season at the dish for Dominguez.
For the year, the 24-year old smashed 21 homers. His ISO fell from .193 to .162, but the fact that he still managed to launch 20 bombs over a full season of playing time was impressive. But it was the rest of his stats that confounded people. Dominguez hit .241/.286/.403 for the year, and while his walk rate did increase from 2012 to 2013, it took a 6.9% second half walk rate to get there. A lot of his issues could be tied to bad luck – Dominguez's BABIP for the season was only .254. However, the 12 first half walks, the struggles against left-handed pitching, and inability to do anything significant with balls he couldn't pull are all warning signs for the future.
Barring a positional shift from another infielder, the Astros farm system lacks a third baseman close to the majors. Their best option is Rio Ruiz, a 19-year old who spent 2013 in A-ball. The club seems stuck with Dominguez for the foreseeable future, and while the 24-year old isn't terrible, a good season in 2014 fueled by some better luck on balls in play and improved plate discipline could do a lot to ease the minds of Astros fans.
Robbie Grossman
Grossman is a guy that is actually playing for his future in 2014. With talented young outfielders knocking at the major league door, an impressive season from Grossman would do a lot towards proving his future worth. Unfortunately, that impressive season didn't come in 63 major league games in 2013 – he hit just .268/.332/.370 with four home runs. Grossman suffered a fractured hamate bone prior to the 2012 season, and that injury affected his power production – he hit only 16 homers over the 2012 and 2013 seasons after hitting 13 in 2011 alone.
Grossman also saw his efficiency on the basepaths fall off after the injury, nabbing bags at just a 56.7% success rate over the last two years, compared to a clip above 70% in his minor league career prior to that point. Grossman hasn't shown that he's anything other than a short-term fix for the Astros with his production so far in Houston, and 2014 will be a make or break year for his future.
